CO-SEN: Gardner entering Senate race

[publicunofficial]

Lean D.


Udall's still going to win, but now he'll actually have to put up an effort.

[publicunofficial]

This is probably a toss up now. Only the weakness of Buck made it lean D.

The weakness of Buck made it Likely D.



Seriously. Remember when PPP was the only pollster that had Bennet beating Buck in 2010? Colorado will come home at the end.

[publicunofficial]

Very impressed -- Gardner could turn out to be an even stronger candidate than Land.

I'd like to see a PPP poll. Udall only led Buck 46/42 in their December poll.

CO's a fairly polarized state, and I can't imagine too many Republican supporters don't like Buck -- it was that Buck motivated Democrats in a way that Gardner wouldn't. I'd think Gardner and Udall are tied in the low 40s.

I'd like to see a PPP poll too, and see how much it exaggerates Udall's numbers.

Yeah it's not like PPP is one of the most accurate pollsters of Colorado or anything.

Ken Buck running for Safe R CO-4.

Gardner now running for Senate against Mark Udall.

Things just got a lot better for the GOP. This is probably another Michigan where republicans could have a good chance of an extra pickup on a really good night. If Udall was only up by 4 against Buck, then he might actually be in some trouble. Lean D for now until I get some more perspective.

Also, Sabato has moved this from Likely D to Lean D.

CO-4 isn't safe R.  Gardner won it by beating Betsey Markey in 2010.

Saying CO-04 isn't Safe R is like saying ID-01 isn't Safe R in an open seat. Like CO-04 and VA-05, Democrats only controlled it in the first place because the R incumbent was a total jackass in 2008, and probably would've lost it even in a neutral year against any halfway-decent R challenger.

[publicunofficial]

Looking at that map, I don't even see how Gardner's district even has enough people to be its own district. Eastern Colorado is very sparsely populated.

Fort Collins and its suburbs are in the district.

No they aren't. They were moved to CO-02 in redistricting.

[publicunofficial]

Muhammad Ali Hasan (Former CO-GOP leader/politician, founder of Muslims for Bush, now Democrat) has a pretty good summary of the race:

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