Washington, D.C. Megathread

[Free Bird]

Just wait for Mario to run for mayor

[Vega]

Just wait for Mario to run for mayor

If I recall correctly, there was a Mayor of DC named Marion, if that's any consolation.

[Nutmeg]

I wonder how well Catania will do in the election. Can't imagine him winning, and the polls (but they are from March) show him trailing by more than 20 points.

Bowser's general election slogan is "Democrat Muriel Bowser," which pretty much tells you everything you need to know. No one is going to beat the Democrat in a general election here barring some obvious flaw in that candidate (and I don't think Bowser's general cluelessness is enough of a flaw).

Yeah.

To be honest, I'm not entirely sure if Bowser is better than Grey. She seems totally, well, as you said, clueless.

I think I've posted this before, probably in another thread, but the Grey vs .Bowser contest is one of dishonesty vs. mostly honesty but also mostly competence vs. mostly a lack of ideas. I think I actually might prefer Grey. He surrounded himself with dishonest people, but at the end of the day the city has been doing amazingly under his leadership. Bowser doesn't even know whether she supports, well, anything.

[Vega]

I wonder how well Catania will do in the election. Can't imagine him winning, and the polls (but they are from March) show him trailing by more than 20 points.

Bowser's general election slogan is "Democrat Muriel Bowser," which pretty much tells you everything you need to know. No one is going to beat the Democrat in a general election here barring some obvious flaw in that candidate (and I don't think Bowser's general cluelessness is enough of a flaw).

Yeah.

To be honest, I'm not entirely sure if Bowser is better than Grey. She seems totally, well, as you said, clueless.

I think I've posted this before, probably in another thread, but the Grey vs .Bowser contest is one of dishonesty vs. mostly honesty but also mostly competence vs. mostly a lack of ideas. I think I actually might prefer Grey. He surrounded himself with dishonest people, but at the end of the day the city has been doing amazingly under his leadership. Bowser doesn't even know whether she supports, well, anything.

I hope that in 4 years, Grey can come back and challenge her in the Primary. He really knew how to run the city.

[Nutmeg]

I wonder how well Catania will do in the election. Can't imagine him winning, and the polls (but they are from March) show him trailing by more than 20 points.

Bowser's general election slogan is "Democrat Muriel Bowser," which pretty much tells you everything you need to know. No one is going to beat the Democrat in a general election here barring some obvious flaw in that candidate (and I don't think Bowser's general cluelessness is enough of a flaw).

Yeah.

To be honest, I'm not entirely sure if Bowser is better than Grey. She seems totally, well, as you said, clueless.

I think I've posted this before, probably in another thread, but the Grey vs .Bowser contest is one of dishonesty vs. mostly honesty but also mostly competence vs. mostly a lack of ideas. I think I actually might prefer Grey. He surrounded himself with dishonest people, but at the end of the day the city has been doing amazingly under his leadership. Bowser doesn't even know whether she supports, well, anything.

I hope that in 4 years, Grey can come back and challenge her in the Primary. He really knew how to run the city.

Assuming he's not in prison by then. I actually don't see him being able to make a comeback - he doesn't really have a natural base of support, unlike Marion Barry in Ward 8, that will stick with him through thick and thin.

That said, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict Bowser is not renominated in 2018. That would be three mayors in a row to get primaried.

[warandwar]

Nutmeg, do you have any prediction on the at-large and AG races?

[Nutmeg]

Nutmeg, do you have any prediction on the at-large and AG races?

Short answer: no. Both races have tons of candidates. In both races, a white candidate has the most name recognition from previous runs for citywide office as a Democrat, but in a city where race still plays a large role in politics, that might not mean as much as the candidates' appearances do.

Incumbent Anita Bonds (D) will win one of the 2 at-large seats, but as for the other seat, I don't think any candidates really stand out at this point. But I am willing to bet it will be an independent, not the Republican, Statehood Green, or Libertarian, who wins the other seat. "Independents" Robert White and Alissa Silverman would be my guesses for the 2 candidates most likely to win.

AG I would have said was in the bag for Paul Zukerburg because he was the only candidate running for a long time. Zukerberg singlehandedly pursued lawsuits to compel the Council to follow the will of voters in establishing the elected position. He has my support for that reason alone, but there now are 5 candidates. None has as much name recognition as Zukerburg, I don't think, but I still suspect one of the 3 black candidates will win in the end, perhaps Edward "Smitty" Smith.

What do you think?

[warandwar]

I'd agree with you about Robert White and Elissa Silverman. White probably has the edge, and I'm assuming he'll get most of the establishment support. For AG, my best guess would be Karl Racine. If I lived in the district, I'd vote for Zukerburg, but I'd be surprised if he won.

[Nutmeg]

I'd agree with you about Robert White and Elissa Silverman. White probably has the edge, and I'm assuming he'll get most of the establishment support. For AG, my best guess would be Karl Racine. If I lived in the district, I'd vote for Zukerburg, but I'd be surprised if he won.

Oh yeah, I should know her name. I talked to her one-on-one at length at a candidate forum during the at-large special election last year. Was conflicted as to whether I should vote for her or Matt Frumin. I only went for Frumin when Silverman publicly requested that he drop out. (She was right, game theory-wise, but the way she went about it rubbed me, and lots of other people, the wrong way. The correct way to do it was what we witnessed in this year's Ward 1 primary, when Bryan Weaver agreed to run as an independent in the general and let Brianne Nadeau take on Jim Graham in a fair fight in the primary.)

Interesting. Why do you say Racine? I don't doubt that any candidate has the ability to win, but they're pretty much all unknown quantities to the electorate (at this point).

[warandwar]

I'd agree with you about Robert White and Elissa Silverman. White probably has the edge, and I'm assuming he'll get most of the establishment support. For AG, my best guess would be Karl Racine. If I lived in the district, I'd vote for Zukerburg, but I'd be surprised if he won.

Oh yeah, I should know her name. I talked to her one-on-one at length at a candidate forum during the at-large special election last year. Was conflicted as to whether I should vote for her or Matt Frumin. I only went for Frumin when Silverman publicly requested that he drop out. (She was right, game theory-wise, but the way she went about it rubbed me, and lots of other people, the wrong way. The correct way to do it was what we witnessed in this year's Ward 1 primary, when Bryan Weaver agreed to run as an independent in the general and let Brianne Nadeau take on Jim Graham in a fair fight in the primary.)

Interesting. Why do you say Racine? I don't doubt that any candidate has the ability to win, but they're pretty much all unknown quantities to the electorate (at this point).

I don't have any deeper analysis than he just seems to have ties to some prominent people and is fairly experienced. I don't think any candidates have turned in signatures yet, so I guess it's kind of premature to actually assume anything about the race. He does have the problem of being Harry Thomas Jr.'s lawyer, although that could easily be a non-issue.

[Nutmeg]

I'd agree with you about Robert White and Elissa Silverman. White probably has the edge, and I'm assuming he'll get most of the establishment support. For AG, my best guess would be Karl Racine. If I lived in the district, I'd vote for Zukerburg, but I'd be surprised if he won.

Oh yeah, I should know her name. I talked to her one-on-one at length at a candidate forum during the at-large special election last year. Was conflicted as to whether I should vote for her or Matt Frumin. I only went for Frumin when Silverman publicly requested that he drop out. (She was right, game theory-wise, but the way she went about it rubbed me, and lots of other people, the wrong way. The correct way to do it was what we witnessed in this year's Ward 1 primary, when Bryan Weaver agreed to run as an independent in the general and let Brianne Nadeau take on Jim Graham in a fair fight in the primary.)

Interesting. Why do you say Racine? I don't doubt that any candidate has the ability to win, but they're pretty much all unknown quantities to the electorate (at this point).

I don't have any deeper analysis than he just seems to have ties to some prominent people and is fairly experienced. I don't think any candidates have turned in signatures yet, so I guess it's kind of premature to actually assume anything about the race. He does have the problem of being Harry Thomas Jr.'s lawyer, although that could easily be a non-issue.

Oh wow. That sounds like a real deal-breaker. D.C. voters are showing they have no patience for even a whiff of corruption.

Grey got thrown out solely because of his corruption issues even as the vast majority of residents feel the city is headed in the right direction. In other words, they chose honest inexperience/lack of ideas over dishonest experience/proven ideas. As-yet unproven allegations against Jim Graham delivered him an embarrassing 60-40 loss.

I really don't see that same electorate choosing someone affiliated with a former councilmember who now is in prison. Everyone has a right to a fair trial, but those are terrible optics. Most of this city, I'd wager, would want Thomas locked away and the key thrown away for stealing our tax dollars.

[Progressive]

Prediction

Bowser (D): 54%
Catania (I): 38%

At-Large:
Bonds and Silverman

What are yours?

[Vega]

I can see Catania getting at most 40 percent.

[Progressive]

I can see Catania getting at most 40 percent.

I agree, labor, Democratic-alligned groups, etc. will pull out the strings for Bowser. I'm sure she'll get some sort of Clinton, Obama, Biden, etc. robo call and mailer..

[Vega]

I can see Catania getting at most 40 percent.

I agree, labor, Democratic-alligned groups, etc. will pull out the strings for Bowser. I'm sure she'll get some sort of Clinton, Obama, Biden, etc. robo call and mailer..

Eh. DC is sapphire blue. Those mailers and robo calls are only the icing on the cake.

[Nutmeg]

Prediction

Bowser (D): 54%
Catania (I): 38%

At-Large:
Bonds and Silverman

What are yours?

That sounds about right, except I might be tempted to say White rather than Silverman.

[Progressive]

Prediction

Bowser (D): 54%
Catania (I): 38%

At-Large:
Bonds and Silverman

What are yours?

That sounds about right, except I might be tempted to say White rather than Silverman.

Interesting. Kenyan McDuffie's endorsement of White, I thought, would ultimately hurt Bonds, siphoning away some reliable Democrats in Ward 5 who might not have considered Silverman anyway.

[Vega]

Prediction

Bowser (D): 54%
Catania (I): 38%

At-Large:
Bonds and Silverman

What are yours?

That sounds about right, except I might be tempted to say White rather than Silverman.

Interesting. Kenyan McDuffie's endorsement of White, I thought, would ultimately hurt Bonds, siphoning away some reliable Democrats in Ward 5 who might not have considered Silverman anyway.

I think White will win, too. But it'll be interesting. I haven't exactly read up on the At Large races to the best degree.

[Nutmeg]

Prediction

Bowser (D): 54%
Catania (I): 38%

At-Large:
Bonds and Silverman

What are yours?

That sounds about right, except I might be tempted to say White rather than Silverman.

Interesting. Kenyan McDuffie's endorsement of White, I thought, would ultimately hurt Bonds, siphoning away some reliable Democrats in Ward 5 who might not have considered Silverman anyway.

I hadn't even realized McDuffie had endorsed White (like Vega, I haven't been paying much attention to at-large and have no idea who I'm voting for for even one slot, much less two, other than anyone but Bonds). That would help him in Ward 5, of course. But it also really sheds light on this fake "independent" shenanigans candidates keep pulling. When a Democratic incumbent endorses you, chances are you're a Democrat in everything but name (Independent In Name Only?).

However, I don't see why this would hurt Bonds. All voters get to vote for two candidates in this race. At least one non-Democrat has to win. So it would hurt Silverman (and other non-Democrats), but not the Democrat.

Assuming White and Silverman are the top 2 non-Democrats in this race, I suspect Silverman would win in Wards 1, 2, 3, and 6, and White in 4, 5, 7, and 8. That should be enough for White to win given past turnout.

[Nutmeg]

It's DC. Catania only had a a chance against the scandal-tarred Grey, and he lost. Solid Bowser

A recent poll conducted by Catania's campaign showed a tied race with Carol Schwartz getting in the teens, for what little that's worth.

[solarstorm]

So, there are ward councilmen and at-large councilmen? Is it something like a united House and Senate?
How does the election of councilmen work?

[solarstorm]

the nerd in me is amazed and overjoyed at the fact that D.C. may in fact have a Mayor Bowser.

We need to throw him her into the lava!!

[Kushahontas]

So, there are ward councilmen and at-large councilmen? Is it something like a united House and Senate?
How does the election of councilmen work?

Everyone serves on the same council. Some are just forced to run in a district while others must run citywide.

[Nutmeg]

Catania receives an interesting endorsement. From an email I received today:

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[Vega]

That was unexpected. Doubt it'll actually help Catania, though.