Washington, D.C. Megathread

[Nutmeg]

That was unexpected. Doubt it'll actually help Catania, though.

Yeah, has anyone outside of Vermont even heard of Shumlin?

[Vega]

That was unexpected. Doubt it'll actually help Catania, though.

Yeah, has anyone outside of Vermont even heard of Shumlin?

Even if they did, he doesn't really relate with D.C. at all. Vermont and D.C. are pretty much as opposite as you can get for states who both voted for Obama in 2012.

[Nutmeg]

Catania's campaign is claiming Bowser leads him by a margin of only 34 to 30 percent, saying only,

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[tpfkaw]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/president-obama-endorses-muriel-bowser-amid-hard-fought-dc-mayor-race/2014/10/06/c7319b3a-4d62-11e4-babe-e91da079cb8a_story.html

It's over, if it had ever even started in the first place.

[tpfkaw]

I'll also take the opportunity to comment that Obama is quite the D hack (as suits his position, I suppose). Clinton at least had the good sense not to endorse Marion Barry in 1994.

[tpfkaw]

I mean, honestly, and I'm not being a concern troll here, it's a really mystifying decision to me from a political strategy perspective for Obama to have endorsed Bowser.

He could've done nothing, obviously, which would be no-risk/no-reward.

If he'd endorsed Catania, he would've helped the Democrats in Northern Virginia (and hell, MD-Gov this year). It'd also be throwing a bone to the LGBT community, and it would be helpful for making him appear centrist, pragmatic, and non-racial. If Catania is left enough for Shumlin he should be left enough for Obama, and Bowser would probably still win anyway.

The downsides are that some blacks in DC might get upset and not turn out in 2016, so Hillary gets 87% of the vote instead of 88%, and that for one week 2 years before the next election the media would spin an (unlikely) Catania victory as the Democrats losing blacks/cities, which would be mitigated significantly by the fact that Obama endorsed him.

All these effects are marginal of course, but elections sometimes do come down to the margins, and I think the upsides clearly outweigh the downsides here.

By endorsing Bowser, he's tying himself and, by extension, the national Democratic Party, to a candidate virtually certain, as mayor, to become a national (and in particular, Northern Virginia) embarrassment to the Democrats.

[Vega]

You need to learn to use the edit button.

I kid. But yeah, Catania isn't that bad. Obama of course isn't going to break ranks with about 90% of the Democratic Party and back someone else, though.

[Nutmeg]

It's over, if it had ever even started in the first place.

Tell that to Gov. Abercrombie.

I mean, honestly, and I'm not being a concern troll here, it's a really mystifying decision to me from a political strategy perspective for Obama to have endorsed Bowser.

Agreed. I'm honestly pretty irritated. I love the man and continue to support him, but why is he meddling in local affairs? He hasn't done anything to aid the lack of representation we have here in the nation's capital, so I really am not inclined to listen to him on what's best for the city.

By endorsing Bowser, he's tying himself and, by extension, the national Democratic Party, to a candidate virtually certain, as mayor, to become a national (and in particular, Northern Virginia) embarrassment to the Democrats.

And yet I can't agree with you here. I am no Bowser fan, but she's far from embarrassing. She's basically a stereotype of a politician ("I support all policies that are good for all people" kind of platitudes). But she's professional, pretty honest, and basically just a robot. So I'm really not sure what you mean here.

But yeah, Catania isn't that bad. Obama of course isn't going to break ranks with about 90% of the Democratic Party and back someone else, though.

Nowhere 90% of D.C. Democrats are going to vote for Bowser. I'd be surprised if she breaks 50%.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

[insert witty pun here]

[Vega]

Nowhere 90% of D.C. Democrats are going to vote for Bowser. I'd be surprised if she breaks 50%.

I mean 90%, if not more, of the establishment Democratic party. Not the voters. Probably should have made that clearer.

[Nutmeg]

Nowhere 90% of D.C. Democrats are going to vote for Bowser. I'd be surprised if she breaks 50%.

I mean 90%, if not more, of the establishment Democratic party. Not the voters. Probably should have made that clearer.

Ah, gotcha. Sure, in terms of the local party leadership. And a corrupt lot at that.

[Nutmeg]

My earlier prediction, that Anita Bonds (D) would keep her at-large seat and Elissa Silverman (I) and Robert White (I) would be the contenders for the other at-large seat, is supported by a poll Silverman discussed at a campaign event of hers I attended last week. She said her(?) poll showed Bonds in first place with something like 25%, her in second in the high teens or so, and White in third in the low teens, or something like that.

[Vega]

My earlier prediction, that Anita Bonds (D) would keep her at-large seat and Elissa Silverman (I) and Robert White (I) would be the contenders for the other at-large seat, is supported by a poll Silverman discussed at a campaign event of hers I attended last week. She said her(?) poll showed Bonds in first place with something like 25%, her in second in the high teens or so, and White in third in the low teens, or something like that.

Is there any reason for the lack of polls in DC council races? Or is it just that I don't see them?

[Nutmeg]

My earlier prediction, that Anita Bonds (D) would keep her at-large seat and Elissa Silverman (I) and Robert White (I) would be the contenders for the other at-large seat, is supported by a poll Silverman discussed at a campaign event of hers I attended last week. She said her(?) poll showed Bonds in first place with something like 25%, her in second in the high teens or so, and White in third in the low teens, or something like that.

Is there any reason for the lack of polls in DC council races? Or is it just that I don't see them?

I think it's because most of the polls are conducted by the campaigns and never actually released publicly. Or rather they're press releases/talking points masquerading as polls.

[Non Swing Voter]

Any updates on this race?

I'm assuming that Catania will win the affluent areas like dupont, logan, georgetown, foggy bottom, etc. and bowser will win northeast, etc. 

[Nutmeg]

Polls have shown Bowser's lead over Catania steadily in the mid to high single digits. I expect that's where things will end up on election day, too.

I agree with you on the geographic distribution of the candidates' support; I suspect Bowser will win wards 4, 5, 7, and 8, while Catania will win 1, 2, 3, and 6.

[Vega]

If Catania looses by a respectable margin (2-6 points), what will his future hold?

[Nutmeg]

If Catania looses by a respectable margin (2-6 points), what will his future hold?

I haven't seen any polls on name recognition or favorability, but anecdotally Catania seems to have low name recognition considering that he's held citywide office for 16 years.  This actually seems to be a problem most of the at-large councilmembers face; people know their Ward councilmember quite well, while the 4 at-large members float by unnoticed because they aren't involved in constituent affairs for the most part. Therefore I'd say Catania returns to his day job as corporate consultant and maybe runs against Vincent Orange (and David Grosso) for another at-large seat in 2 years.

[Progressive]

Any new predictions?

With Schwartz in the race, I think maybe….

Bowser 50%

Catania 36%

Schwartz 12%

[warandwar]

Any new predictions?

With Schwartz in the race, I think maybe….

Bowser 50%

Catania 36%

Schwartz 12%

That was a really good guess. Final margin was 54/35/7. I'm surprised my hunch about Karl Racine from earlier turned out to be spot on. It's too bad, since Smith or Zuckerburg would have been better. Elissa Silverman ended up winning the At-Large seat, she'll make a good addition to the council, I think. The margin for I-71 surprised me, although I'm not sure how Congress will respond.
Perhaps Maryland will join DC in legalization after Mizeur's landslide victory in 2018....

[Vega]

I thought Catania would do a wee bit better. Maybe crack 40%.

[Nutmeg]

I suspect Bowser will win wards 4, 5, 7, and 8, while Catania will win 1, 2, 3, and 6.

This turned out to be correct, except Ward 1 (my home) went for Bowser but had the closest margin of any ward.

[Vega]

Here is a map of the election; shades of green are Catania, shades of blue are Bowser.



Bowser won by winning alot of the predominantly black precincts that she lost in the primary. She completely swept the eastern part of the district, too.

[Nutmeg]

Here is a map of the election; shades of green are Catania, shades of blue are Bowser.

Bowser won by winning alot of the predominantly black precincts that she lost in the primary. She completely swept the eastern part of the district, too.

So basically a map of race in D.C. It's similar to the 2010 Grey-Fenty map, too.

Except how did Bowser win the West End/Foggy Bottom? High Schwartz vote?

[Panda Express]

You guys elected a dude named Bowser? Seriously? Our nation's capital is ruled by BOWSER?