United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2014

[windjammer]

5 days.
I just want to see how many republicans would vote for Travis Childers/None of the above and how many democrats wouldn't vote for Travis Childers.

Well obviously for me: Travis Childers (D)

[Vega]

None of the above; I can't get behind Childers or McDaniel. Just keep Cochran.

[7,052,770]

None of the above; I can't get behind Childers or McDaniel. Just keep Cochran.

Oh come on now, I don't think there's a single issue where Cochran is to the left of Childers. Granted, Cochran is a much more effective senator than Childers could be for several decades, with all the pork and federal money he brings into the state, but I don't see what difference that makes to someone outside the state.

Having said that, I hope Cochran wins the primary and that's that. While I think that Childers probably would beat McDaniel (no s), I'm not 100% sure.  Do I really want to throw away one of the 5 least objectionable Republicans in the senate, one who does so much for my state, for a coin-flip between what would be one of the five most objectionable Democrats and one of the five most objectionable Republicans?  Is that a gamble I really want to take?  Even if I thought Childers was an 80% favorite to beat McDaniel, would that bet be worth it?  I don't think it would be.

Count me down as Team Cochran for now.  If after June 3, we're looking at a Childers - McDaniel race (I really don't think it's going to happen), then obviously I'm 100% behind Childers.  But I'm totally fine if that doesn't happen at all.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Could Childers potentially benefit from running to the right of Cochran on pork to bring fiscal conservatives on his side?  Granted, that will only be workable if Childers doesn't have a House record full of it like Cochran does...

[ElectionsGuy]

Chris McDaniel (no s)

[LeBron]

If Cochran survives the primary, then I would recommend Childers not try at all and just drop out b/c he just couldn't win. Even with McDaniel though, it's just like Arkansas. A pro-gun Democrat in a red state where the Tea Party opponent is favored from the start. I just don't know if gaffes would be enough for a Childers or Pryor win in their respective states and I feel we're better of trying to hold Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina, and especially Colorado now.

To answer the question though, I would support Childers over McDaniel, clearly, but I would likely be against putting money into this race.

[7,052,770]

If Cochran survives the primary, then I would recommend Childers not try at all and just drop out b/c he just couldn't win. Even with McDaniel though, it's just like Arkansas. A pro-gun Democrat in a red state where the Tea Party opponent is favored from the start. I just don't know if gaffes would be enough for a Childers or Pryor win in their respective states and I feel we're better of trying to hold Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina, and especially Colorado now.

To answer the question though, I would support Childers over McDaniel, clearly, but I would likely be against putting money into this race.

McDaniel has probably already made his campaign-killing gaffe, saying he's "not sure" if he would have voted for the Katrina relief bill.  I really don't see any way he can come back from that.

Could Childers potentially benefit from running to the right of Cochran on pork to bring fiscal conservatives on his side?  Granted, that will only be workable if Childers doesn't have a House record full of it like Cochran does...

Honestly, no, I think that would just be really embarrassing. If Cochran is his opponent, Childers should just campaign as an Obama-loving liberal and at least get ads like that into people's living rooms.  If it's impossible to win, at least go down fighting for what you believe in.  He might sow a few seeds that could be useful later on.

[Indy Texas]

I could see the business community getting behind Childers in a matchup with McDaniel.

Do they really want to elect someone who will be (probably) in the minority party in the Senate and who not only will be unable to exercise significant influence for his state for a few years, but who doesn't even want to exercise influence for his state?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I honestly think McDaniel will win the primary. Cochran's going around saying he "doesn't know what this tea party thing is all about" and he only led by 4 points before the campaign even really began. I do hope Cochran wins though. If this were say, Georgia then I would be praying to Jebus that McDaniel win the primary because it would almost guarantee that it'd flip, but Mississippi is so inelastically red that I kinda don't want to take the chance of having a neo-Confederate in the Senate.

[Vega]

If McDaniel does win the primary (and I hope he does not), than, the state *could* be in play for the Democrats.

PPP has McDaniel only leading the Democrat by 3 points or so.

[SWE]

If Cochran wins, this race is Safe R. If McDaniels wins, it's Lean R or tossup.

[Vega]

The Indiana dynamic would come into play (defeating a popular incumbent). If McDaniels makes a gaffe or two...

[windjammer]

The GOP doesn't seem to have any problems to vote for a neoconferate.

[smoltchanov]

The GOP doesn't seem to have any problems to vote for a neoconferate.

I would say - Missssippi GOP. After all - Missssippi was "proud part" of Confederation..

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I suspect McDaniel will narrowly win the primary.  However, it is still an open question whether he is a weak enough candidate to lose.  I could easily see Childers losing by 8-10% against him.  It is possible that McDaniel could blow it if he really is as incompetent as Harry has suggested, but it would take more than a worse than usual gaffe or two.  It'd take a real scandal or a bunch of Santorum/Mourdock-level gaffes for Childers to have a real shot.  I have no doubt Childers could reach 45% or so against McDaniel, but it will be really tough to get that additional 5.01%.  In other words, Childers cannot win the election, but McDaniel might be capable of losing it.  However, we shouldn't get our hopes up at this point, regardless of how the primary turns out.

[windjammer]

I share X's point of view.
However: Compared to Mcdaniel, Todd Akin looks like a RINO from the Northeast. I fear a big racist comment, it would be perfect to boost black turnout.

[Del Tachi]

I'm a Republican who is a registered voter in the Magnolia State.  Perhaps my opinion is somewhat valued.

I am 100% behind Senator Cochran in the primary, and, as of right now, I would put Senator Cochran as a heavy favorite over McDaniel.  However, a McDaniel victory is certainly within the realm of possibility - especially if McDaniel is able to define Cochran as a moderate-to-liberal Republican who backed-down on Obamacare.  Certainly within the realm of possibility, and Cochran should definitely be worried.  Very worried. 

If McDaniel does win the primary, in no circumstance will I vote for him.  Thankfully, I have a palatable option in Travis Childers.  In a Childers/McDaniels race, I am 100 percent behind Travis Childers.  This is for two reasons, mostly:  1)  Childers is from North Mississippi, which is from where my family is traditionally.  North Mississippi has historically been very well-represented in Mississippi politics, with both of our current Senators, key state legislators, and governors coming from the area.  2)  I'm somewhat personally connected to Travis Childers, as my great-grandmother drove him to school on school bus everyday when he was growing up in Boonveille, two of my uncles work for his real estate company, and he attends the same church in Booneville as many of my relatives.  However, the biggest "plus" about Childers is that he seems to be a natural successor to Cochran than McDaniel - Childers, while he would probably be the most conservative Democrat in the Senate, would not cast his lot with the Ted Cruzes and Mike Lees of the world.  A Senator Childers would not vote to shutdown the government, would fight for the rights of Veterans and the working poor, and would continue Cochran's legacy in fields such as appropriations and agriculture.       

Moreover, I would like to add that my opinion is not an extreme minority.  Growing up in a relatively cosmopolitan college town (Starkville), most Republican types around here are not the firebrand Tea Party type.  The same can be said for Republican voters on the Mississippi Gulf Coast, the Delta, interior Jackson suburbs (Fondren, Flowood, Clinton), and large swaths of Northeast Mississippi.  McDaniels core areas of strength will be DeSoto and Rankin Counties, Meridian, Hattiesburg and southwest Mississippi.  I would wager that at least 20% of GOP voters in Mississippi are potential Childers voters.   
 

[Miles]

Childers, obviously in this case, but Cochran is a good Senator and I'd like either.

McDaniel would need to make at least 2 more notable gaffes to lose the general against Childers, IMO.

[MATTROSE94]

I would probably vote for Thad Cochran if he survives the primary, but would enthusiastically support Travis Childers if Chris McDaniels ends up defeating Cochran in the primary election.

[publicunofficial]

Bennie Thompson is running unopposed, which can't help minority turnout.

[nclib]

If this were say, Georgia then I would be praying to Jebus that McDaniel win the primary because it would almost guarantee that it'd flip, but Mississippi is so inelastically red that I kinda don't want to take the chance of having a neo-Confederate in the Senate.

Agreed. Any chance electing McDaniel could harm the GOP's image in other states?

[nclib]

If this were say, Georgia then I would be praying to Jebus that McDaniel win the primary because it would almost guarantee that it'd flip, but Mississippi is so inelastically red that I kinda don't want to take the chance of having a neo-Confederate in the Senate.

Agreed. Any chance electing McDaniel could harm the GOP's image in other states?

I mean, he could, but would you honestly want this guy in the Senate?

No, I was just pointing that out.