Mississippi 2015 Megathread
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Author Topic: Mississippi 2015 Megathread  (Read 82148 times)
gespb19
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« Reply #125 on: July 05, 2015, 11:36:39 PM »

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2015/07/04/challengers-face-republican-incumbents-desoto-county/29720599/

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smoltchanov
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« Reply #126 on: July 06, 2015, 12:30:55 AM »

Well, i always thought that even "establishment Republicans" in Mississippi are conservative enough (frequently - more then enough).... Second wave of McDanielism?Huh
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gespb19
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« Reply #127 on: July 06, 2015, 01:02:16 PM »

Well, i always thought that even "establishment Republicans" in Mississippi are conservative enough (frequently - more then enough).... Second wave of McDanielism?Huh

Combination of two things: 1) Tea Party is trying to make a power grab across the state, they've also fielded candidates in Metro Jackson and on the Coast. 2) DeSoto County is generally receptive to Tea Party Republicans. McDaniel won 70% of the vote there in the primary runoff last year.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #128 on: July 06, 2015, 01:19:08 PM »

Well, i always thought that even "establishment Republicans" in Mississippi are conservative enough (frequently - more then enough).... Second wave of McDanielism?Huh

Combination of two things: 1) Tea Party is trying to make a power grab across the state, they've also fielded candidates in Metro Jackson and on the Coast. 2) DeSoto County is generally receptive to Tea Party Republicans. McDaniel won 70% of the vote there in the primary runoff last year.

Thanks! Hope they will fail...
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Duke of York
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« Reply #129 on: July 06, 2015, 05:33:31 PM »

hopefully they all win the primary and lose the general and the democrats take the legislature.
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gespb19
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« Reply #130 on: July 06, 2015, 06:14:03 PM »

hopefully they all win the primary and lose the general and the democrats take the legislature.

Most have no Democrat opposition.
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Harry
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« Reply #131 on: July 06, 2015, 07:42:39 PM »

I don't think there is any possibility of a state senate race hinging on a primary. Virtually every tight primary on either side has no opposition from the other party.

A couple interesting Democratic primaries include Kenny Wayne Jones, chairman of the Black Caucus, being challenged in the Democratic primary by former legislator and 2003 lt. gov. nominee Barbara Blackmon, and the Bill Stone-Steve Hale battle after the two were redistricted into the same seat.

I really don't know how to predict either race.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #132 on: July 06, 2015, 10:09:49 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2015, 10:14:57 PM by smoltchanov »

hopefully they all win the primary and lose the general and the democrats take the legislature.

I don't care about parties (because they never cared about me). But care very much about individual candidates...
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gespb19
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« Reply #133 on: July 06, 2015, 11:51:31 PM »
« Edited: July 07, 2015, 12:00:52 AM by gespb19 »

Here are my (way too early) pre-primary ratings for both the House and the Senate. I will try and do a new one after the primary and then one before the general in November. Hopefully, I did not make any huge mistakes in the spreadsheet. I did change the ratings of a few of the seats that I made predictions on a few weeks ago.

Note: incumbents being challenged in primary are italicized. Also, primaries that have multiple candidates and are without an incumbent are marked 'TBD' (to be determined).

House: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GQqfDaAOeviyYURK4LpFpGCr0WxyiUWFjXMxrZppfSQ/edit?usp=sharing

Senate: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bzQrna6lzMbBQDkTjnQSWBRxscVeuj32KA2bOHh83Zc/edit?usp=sharing
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #134 on: July 07, 2015, 01:05:58 AM »

^ Very intersting. So - generally status quo? The only possible mistake i see is in SD-36. Butler is unopposed, but district is marked as "Safe R"....
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gespb19
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« Reply #135 on: July 07, 2015, 01:13:45 AM »

Thanks for pointing that out.

Also, yes I wouldn't expect either party making huge gains this year.
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gespb19
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« Reply #136 on: July 07, 2015, 12:07:33 PM »

Who do you guys think will be the Democratic nominee for governor this year?

Vicki Slater. She'll get blown out in the general though.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #137 on: July 07, 2015, 06:07:51 PM »

Who do you guys think will be the Democratic nominee for governor this year?

Vicki Slater. She'll get blown out in the general though.

Think Bryant will get >60% ?

No.  Slater will improve on the Democrat's 2011 performance.

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Harry
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« Reply #138 on: July 07, 2015, 06:17:05 PM »

Who do you guys think will be the Democratic nominee for governor this year?

Vicki Slater. She'll get blown out in the general though.

Think Bryant will get >60% ?

No.  Slater will improve on the Democrat's 2011 performance.

I mean, it would almost be impossible to do worse than Dupree, who run an invisible campaign.

I'd bet on Bryant winning 58-42 or so.
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windjammer
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« Reply #139 on: July 07, 2015, 06:20:37 PM »

When Mississippi will start becoming a toss up?

Considering how the old are heavily republican (Romney: 78-22) and that Obama carried heavily the youth vote, I'm sure it will be a battleground in the future.
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gespb19
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« Reply #140 on: July 07, 2015, 09:27:36 PM »

When Mississippi will start becoming a toss up?

Considering how the old are heavily republican (Romney: 78-22) and that Obama carried heavily the youth vote, I'm sure it will be a battleground in the future.

In federal elections, maybe by 2028 or 2032. I expect the Democrats to be competitive in the 2019 gubernatorial race, especially if Brandon Presley runs.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #141 on: July 07, 2015, 10:00:12 PM »

When Mississippi will start becoming a toss up?

Considering how the old are heavily republican (Romney: 78-22) and that Obama carried heavily the youth vote, I'm sure it will be a battleground in the future.

In federal elections, maybe by 2028 or 2032. I expect the Democrats to be competitive in the 2019 gubernatorial race, especially if Brandon Presley runs.

Agree on gubernatorial, but more pessimistic on federal: my guess is about 2040 (and i will need a rather long life to see it - i will be slightly over 80 then...))))
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gespb19
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« Reply #142 on: July 16, 2015, 10:56:08 PM »

Here are the early campaign commercials

Lynn Fitch - GOP incumbent - State Treasurer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHwhMmIZLh8

David McRae - GOP challenger - State Treasurer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SciXCJoV-WE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDAEhltbZSs

Stacey Pickering - GOP incumbent - State Auditor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_u0hU313Woo

Mary Hawkins-Butler - GOP challenger - State Auditor

https://vimeo.com/132242816

Mike Chaney - GOP incumbent - Insurance Commissioner

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SLVFNfNi30
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #143 on: July 20, 2015, 11:07:16 AM »

Mary Hawkins-Butler ultra low budget commercials LOL
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #144 on: July 20, 2015, 11:18:01 PM »

Super Premature 2019 speculation:  Reeves, Fitch, Gunn and Presley for Governor; Delbert Hosemann and Gray Tollison for LG; Mike Tagert for SOS
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gespb19
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« Reply #145 on: July 20, 2015, 11:28:01 PM »

Reeves may be in the US Senate by then (I think Cochran retires sometime in the next 1-2 years, then Reeves wins the special election). Unfortunately for Gunn, I think his flag comments will kill him in a statewide race. Fitch would be a good choice for the establishment GOPers in MS.

Presley would be a great nominee for the Dems IMO. He could do some damage in the northern part of the state, problem is he has little name recognition in the southern part of the state.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #146 on: July 20, 2015, 11:36:47 PM »

I've never understood Reeves as someone who has ambitions to go to D.C., and it seems unlikely that Cochran would retire when he has the Ag Committee to go back to in 2019 in-advance of the next Farm Bill (which should be due before 2020).  Cochran only goes if he's able to hand-select his successor (someone like Mark Keenum) and that seems unlikely given Bryant's not-so-secret hostility towards the Cochran-wing of the MS-GOP.

2019 will be a clown-car for the GOP, and the succeeding open Senate election in 2020 will likewise be a clown-car.  With Reeves in the Governor's Mansion come 2020, by bets are on Stacey Pickering going to D.C. to replace Cochran, but I expect that Lynn Fitch will take a stab at it as well.     
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #147 on: July 20, 2015, 11:44:41 PM »

Do you guys think Chris McDaniel will run for Senate again at some point?
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gespb19
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« Reply #148 on: July 20, 2015, 11:44:50 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2015, 11:48:44 PM by gespb19 »

My understanding is that Cochran only ran in 2014 because the top GOPers wanted to handpick the next senator (in this scenario Cochran retires mid-term and Bryant appoints somebody, similar to Lott retiring mid-term in 2007). Maybe not though, the farm bill note is a good point. When Cochran steps down, I feel like Pickering would definitely run, he was prepared to run if Cochran didn't. Also think Hosemann is very interested in a possible Senate bid.
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gespb19
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« Reply #149 on: July 20, 2015, 11:47:25 PM »

Do you guys think Chris McDaniel will run for Senate again at some point?

Eh, I don't know for sure. Rumor is he'll run for the MS-04 slot next spring against Palazzo. I think the Tea Party will put someone up against Wicker in 2018 (Wicker is right of Cochran, but would be easier to beat in a primary). If not McDaniel, it could be someone like Michael Watson from Pascagoula.
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