Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[gespb19]

Our site is better than Alabama, but that ain't saying much because their site is putrid. And like Harry said, quite a few county precinct reports are missing. Looks like at least 12 counties aren't listed, I noticed Forrest, Oktibbeha, Lauderdale and Hinds were absent right off the bat. I expect those to show up eventually, but usually there are 1-2 county precinct sheets missing from each election cycle (I've always wanted to see 2008 Democratic primary reults from Forrest County, but the SOS site doesn't seem to have it )

Have you checked the certified results?

They are not in the 2008 certified results. I am looking for precinct level results, not just county results (Obama won the primary with 60% in this county). I just emailed the circuit clerk and asked if they had what I was looking for.

[smoltchanov]

It seems to me that almost all Democratic runoffs happen to be in majority-black districts (may be - because they can give a good lifetime employment for candidate, so - many people run there). Am i correct?

[gespb19]

Not statewide election related, but Mississippi related. GOP polling. The Donald leading the pack in MS with 27%. Bush at 20%. (No Democratic polling, would be curious to see where the Bern stacks up with Hilldawg)

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/MS-Pres-Prim-8.4.15.pdf

[smoltchanov]

Regional splits would be interesting. My guess is that Trump (essentially running as conservative populist) would be more popular in Northern and Central East parts of the state, while more "establishment" candidates would do better in Jackson area,  and in Delta... Coast - i have no idea...

[Adam Griffin]

I'm loving analyzing the difference between # of R primary votes and # of D primary votes for Governor. The craziest:

Quitman County
D - 2,295
R - 0

Wilkinson County
D - 3,019
R - 20

Tunica County
D - 1,881
R - 24

Coahoma County
D - 4,251
R - 43

Tallahatchie County
D - 4,200
R - 43

[smoltchanov]

Probably DeSoto as well. But - in another direction...

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm loving analyzing the difference between # of R primary votes and # of D primary votes for Governor. The craziest:

Quitman County
D - 2,295
R - 0

Wilkinson County
D - 3,019
R - 20

Tunica County
D - 1,881
R - 24

Coahoma County
D - 4,251
R - 43

Tallahatchie County
D - 4,200
R - 43

Likely a result of all the down ballot action being on the Dem side, so even registered Republicans vote in the Dem primary.

[smoltchanov]

I'm loving analyzing the difference between # of R primary votes and # of D primary votes for Governor. The craziest:

Quitman County
D - 2,295
R - 0

Wilkinson County
D - 3,019
R - 20

Tunica County
D - 1,881
R - 24

Coahoma County
D - 4,251
R - 43

Tallahatchie County
D - 4,200
R - 43

Likely a result of all the down ballot action being on the Dem side, so even registered Republicans vote in the Dem primary.

Naturally. All these counties are 60 - 70% Black..

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The following runoffs will take place on the 25th:

GOP Southern Public Service Commissioner
GOP State House 24, 46, 87
DEM State House 27, 30, 36, 42, 70
GOP State Senate 18, 47
DEM State Senate 34, 38
DEM Central Transportation Commissioner

MS Experts, which races should be the most competitive?

[gespb19]

GOP Southern Public Service Commissioner - Sam Britton over Tony Smith
GOP State House 24 - DeSoto County, so whoever is more conservative should win.
GOP State House - probably Karl Oliver
GOP State House 87 - Chris Johnson
DEM State House 27 - Open seat in VRA district, think LeRoy Lacy wins it
DEM State House 30 - Robert Huddleston
DEM State House 36 - probably Karl Gibbs
DEM State House 42 - Carl Mickens
DEM State House 70 - hopefully Sam Begley, this will be close.
GOP State Senate 18 - Jennifer Branning
GOP State Senate 47 - Could go either way, Pearl River County district so Tea Party friendly.
DEM State Senate 34 - Juan Barnett but Chinn could win if he racks up huge margins in Laurel and Hattiesburg precincts
DEM State Senate 38 - No clue.
DEM Central Transportation Commissioner - Mary Coleman

[smoltchanov]

Again, thanks! I follow races rather closely, but it's more difficult to do, when you are about 7000 miles from place of events)))

[gespb19]

This was taken near McComb. A grassroots campaign at its finest.

[smoltchanov]

So, Gray is campaigning after all)))) In truck driver style, but - still campaigning)))

[7,052,770]

That's ... awesome.

I hope people put signs like that up all over the state.

[gespb19]

With college football starting back in less than 2 weeks, thought I'd make a spreadsheet breaking down the MS Legislature by college. These are where legislators went for their undergraduate education, graduate and law degrees do not factor in. Note: the legislators listed are currently in office, although some may have lost their primary or are not running for re-election in 2015.

MS Legislature - House/Senate combined

Mississippi State - 32
Southern Miss - 26
Ole Miss - 19
Jackson State - 9
Alcorn State - 8
MS Valley State - 6
Tougaloo - 5
Delta State - 4
Memphis - 4
LSU - 3
Millsaps - 2

House

Mississippi State - 22
Southern Miss - 17
Ole Miss - 14
Alcorn State - 6
MS Valley State - 5
Tougaloo - 5
Jackson State - 4
Delta State - 4

Senate

Mississippi State - 11
Southern Miss - 9
Ole Miss - 5
Jackson State - 5
Alcorn State - 2
MS Valley State - 1

Full House list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1z4zxmQl3DslWabRBQ7tS1Lr-XaFBtHOdsUteeL75VIM/edit?usp=sharing

Full Senate list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VTa3i5oXJk4gR8fwXLOUngrWWQVpKDWqZ9L3YBbzZsc/edit?usp=sharing

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls in today's runoffs close in just over an hour.

Results: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/MS_Page_0825.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Britton is leading 64-36 for Southern Public Service Commissioner. Turnout is very low - 6 precincts in but only 50 votes have been cast.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

apparently the entire state forgot that there was a runoff today.

1% in for Transportation Commissioner, Coleman leading Amos 78-22 with <200 votes cast.
2% in for Public Service Commissioner, Britton leading Smith 61-39 with <300 votes cast.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Big Dump in SHD 36, Gibbs losing by 14 points with 25% in.

[gespb19]

Yeah, turnout is going to be very low. Few people at my precinct when I voted.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

15% in for Public Service Commissoner, Britton leading 65-35
10% in for Transportation Commissioner, Coleman leading 70-30

No calls on anything yet. Only a small number of races have a leader with under 60% though:

State House 30 - Huddleston leading 57-43 with 11% in
State House 36 - Davidson leading 57-43 with 25% in
State House 46 - Oliver leading 56-44 with 24% in

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Gibbs catching up in State House 36. Trailing only 51-49 now with 35% in.

Huddleston leading 'only' 55-45 in State House 30 with 17% in.

Barnett and Tyson (State Senate 34/47) have 'only' 57% of the vote at 43/29 % in.

Oliver is up 59-41 in State House 46 with 42% in.

All the other local race leaders are leading by >20 points.

Britton leading 62-38 with 32% in, Coleman leading 72-28 with 17% in.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First call of the night: Britton wins 61-39 with 53% in!

[gespb19]

Glad Britton won. He's a good dude.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Got another call now: Coleman wins 66-34 with 50% in