Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[gespb19]

I'm going to bed. I'm in full meltdown mode right now and don't need to be on the internet.

Fire Rickey Cole!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Amendment - Education Funding - General
Education Funding
1520 of 1811 Precincts Reporting - 84%
Name   Votes   Vote %
Against   281,831   54%
Approval   243,017   46%

Amendment - EducationFundingAlternative - General
EducationFundAlt
1520 of 1811 Precincts Reporting - 84%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
42   Oth   236,696   57%
42A   Oth   176,398   43%

Hood should literally sue the SOS over this slow count.

[Del Tachi]

If the voters of Mississippi aren't willing to elect a legislature that'll fund MAEP, what made some posters here think that the same voters would vote to amend the constitution to give judges the authority to rob other state agencies to pay for MAEP?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

42 clearly defeated 42A, but "Approval" didn't get enough votes. Measure fails. MS continues to be a joke state in education.

Amendment - Education Funding - General
Education Funding
1638 of 1811 Precincts Reporting - 90%
Name   Votes   Vote %
Against   298,229   51% WINNER
Approval   281,083   49%

Amendment - EducationFundingAlternative - General
EducationFundAlt
1638 of 1811 Precincts Reporting - 90%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
42   Oth   273,194   59% WINNER
42A   Oth   187,189   41%

[DINGO Joe]

Dems did win two of the three PSC seats, so they can at least make Southern Co. miserable over Kemper.  Of course, ratepayers will ultimately be on the hook for the monstrosity if it ever becomes operable.

[smoltchanov]

Well, i hoped for Sojourner's defeat, but it seems the last 2 precincts put her over the top by few  votes (the closest race among all, more so then Baria's or Dawkins). If i am not mistaken - Senate will be 33-19, and House - 73-49 Republican. Republicans managed to defeat 3 Democratic incumbents in House - moderates Moak and Lane and somewhat conservative-leaning Eaton (barely), while losing only Mayo's district (it's interesting to know whether J.P. Hughes belongs to moderate or consevative camp by standars of Mississippi Democratic party), successfully defending almost all their gains of 2011. Hood continues to startle, but this is, probably, his last term, and he will retire (and be replaced by Republican) in 2019... Democrats won PSC majority with Cecil Brown, but he isn't young, and so - unlikely to run for something else. So, besides Hood, Democratic statewide bench is, essentially, one person - Brandon Presley...

[/]

Ouch, I was hoping for a Dearing upset, but with those two last precincts...

And Initiative 42

[7,052,770]

If the voters of Mississippi aren't willing to elect a legislature that'll fund MAEP, what made some posters here think that the same voters would vote to amend the constitution to give judges the authority to rob other state agencies to pay for MAEP?

Well most people aren't single-issue MAEP voters when it comes to Legislature, but until yesterday it was a given that most Mississippians supported full funding.

Also, the whole "rob other state agencies" thing was way overblown. We all known there's a lot of waste in the state budget. They could easily trim that instead of trimming the legit stuff if necessary. Remember when House Republicans wanted to get rid of income tax entirely? Apparently there was a lot of extra room in the budget just a few months ago...

[7,052,770]

Hinds County's turnout dropped by nearly 15,000 votes. Turnout was down all over the state. So frustrating that the people that 42 would have directly benefited didn't even come out and vote, especially when rich suburban Republicans were at least somewhat willing to vote Yes.

Perhaps they should've waited a year to put 42 on the ballot?

[gespb19]

Out of the 49 House Dems, 10 are white. Who is the minority leader now with Moak out? Will he/she be white or black?

[smoltchanov]

Out of the 49 House Dems, 10 are white.

Almost the same percentage as in Alabama (is Hughes  in LD-12 black or white, BTW?)... Democratic caucus in Southern states  becomes almost identical with "Black caucus". The same will happen in Louisiana after 2019, when a lot of white incumbents in House will be term-limited and will be replaced either by Republicans or by black Democrats...

[Bacon King]

Out of the 49 House Dems, 10 are white.

Almost the same percentage as in Alabama (is Hughes  in LD-12 black or white, BTW?)... Democratic caucus in Southern states  becomes almost identical with "Black caucus". The same will happen in Louisiana after 2019, when a lot of white incumbents in House will be term-limited and will be replaced either by Republicans or by black Democrats...

to be clear, it's white Democrats getting replaced by Republicans, almost exclusively. Black districts vote for black Democrats, like they have for fifty years. It's the bulk of white people voting for Republicans instead of Democrats that causes the shift you're talking about

[Del Tachi]

Initiative 42 county results.  Left side is Question 1, right side is Question 2.

[smoltchanov]

Out of the 49 House Dems, 10 are white.

Almost the same percentage as in Alabama (is Hughes  in LD-12 black or white, BTW?)... Democratic caucus in Southern states  becomes almost identical with "Black caucus". The same will happen in Louisiana after 2019, when a lot of white incumbents in House will be term-limited and will be replaced either by Republicans or by black Democrats...

to be clear, it's white Democrats getting replaced by Republicans, almost exclusively. Black districts vote for black Democrats, like they have for fifty years. It's the bulk of white people voting for Republicans instead of Democrats that causes the shift you're talking about

In Louisiana i know at least some white Democrats (including Edwards, but also state Senator Francis Thompson, retiring state Senator Heitmeier and some others) who are elected from black-majority districts. Most of their districts will go to Black Democrats after their retirement, though in Edwards case the district will have a run-off of two white Democrats November 21st. But such districts compose no more then a quarter of white Democratt's districts now. Most other will naturally go Republican after their retirement..

[Frodo]

Looks like this is going to be the new make-up of the Mississippi legislature:

House:

Republicans: 74
Democrats: 48

Senate:

Republicans: 32
Democrats: 20

[gespb19]

GOP 1 short of supermajority, I'll betcha someone flips to get them to 74.

[rbt48]

Looks like this is going to be the new make-up of the Mississippi legislature:

House:

Republicans: 73
Democrats: 49

Senate:

Republicans: 35
Democrats: 17

Unless there have been some late party-switches, I count the Senate as:
Republicans: 33
Democrats: 19

[gespb19]

^

That is correct. I'm working on an elections recap and I'll post it here when I finish.

[smoltchanov]

^

That is correct. I'm working on an elections recap and I'll post it here when I finish.

Waiting with interest. One of the questions i would like to get an answer for - why most of highly heralded campaigns of well-known (an, ostensibly, fitting the districts, being an "old school local good boys" with "normal" campaign platform (mixture of some economic populism with social conservatism)) Democratic local officials went so badly? Some even failed to get 40%, and the best result i can remember was 46% in HD-90. Even Childers got only 42%. The one (and only) exception in HD-12 only proves that...

[Hydera]

^

That is correct. I'm working on an elections recap and I'll post it here when I finish.

Waiting with interest. One of the questions i would like to get an answer for - why most of highly heralded campaigns of well-known (an, ostensibly, fitting the districts, being an "old school local good boys" with "normal" campaign platform (mixture of some economic populism with social conservatism)) Democratic local officials went so badly? Some even failed to get 40%, and the best result i can remember was 46% in HD-90. Even Childers got only 42%. The one (and only) exception in HD-12 only proves that...

If a place is trending away from a certain party for a long time. Not even candidates closer to the new "political center of that state" can win.

Some people think they lost because "they were too rightwing". I think even though they lost, they probably lost much less than had they ran a CA style campaign with full on Green platform, economic leftism and ultra social liberalism. Lots of bitter progressives play too much into that meme and Wendy Davis being crushed is an example of that hypothesis not working. There is no secret progressive voterbase that will prop up and bring them to victory if only they were more leftwing.

[smoltchanov]

^

That is correct. I'm working on an elections recap and I'll post it here when I finish.

Waiting with interest. One of the questions i would like to get an answer for - why most of highly heralded campaigns of well-known (an, ostensibly, fitting the districts, being an "old school local good boys" with "normal" campaign platform (mixture of some economic populism with social conservatism)) Democratic local officials went so badly? Some even failed to get 40%, and the best result i can remember was 46% in HD-90. Even Childers got only 42%. The one (and only) exception in HD-12 only proves that...

If a place is trending away from a certain party for a long time. Not even candidates closer to the new "political center of that state" can win.

Some people think they lost because "they were too rightwing". I think even though they lost, they probably lost much less than had they ran a CA style campaign with full on Green platform, economic leftism and ultra social liberalism. Lots of bitter progressives play too much into that meme and Wendy Davis being crushed is an example of that hypothesis not working. There is no secret progressive voterbase that will prop up and bring them to victory if only they were more leftwing.

I never suggested running left-wing candidates in such districts. On the contrary - i am a big supporter of the theory that "district rules!", and if to win Democrats must run a solid conservative - let be it! (even more som because republican candidate in such district will be even more conservative in almost all cases). The same - about Republican candidates... The question arose from gespb19 ratings less then 2 weeks ago, where such people as Childers (LD-02), Loden (LD-21) and Cochran (LD-105) were favored to win, while some other (Hughes (LD-12), Cluck (LD-13), Gannon (LD-19), Strachan (LD-46)) were in districts marked "Toss up/ Tilt R". Only Hughes won, all other got about 40% of vote (slightly more or less)......

[7,052,770]

Some people think they lost because "they were too rightwing". I think even though they lost, they probably lost much less than had they ran a CA style campaign with full on Green platform, economic leftism and ultra social liberalism. Lots of bitter progressives play too much into that meme and Wendy Davis being crushed is an example of that hypothesis not working. There is no secret progressive voterbase that will prop up and bring them to victory if only they were more leftwing.

I agree that we won't win with hardcore liberals running either, but if we're going to lose anyway, we might as well run them and try to move the Overton Window.

[smoltchanov]

Jody Steverson is switching:

http://djournal.com/news/steverson-switching-parties-could-give-republicans-super-majority/

He was the most conservative Mississippi House Democrat according to Boris Shor site i frequently use when evaluating ideological orientation of state legislators, so - not too surprizing... Only Wilemon (in state Senate), Bain, and, to some extent, Sullivan have more or less similar ratings...

[gespb19]

Wrote this on my phone so probably could be written better but here is my recap on Tuesday's elections.

https://catfishpoboy.wordpress.com/2015/11/05/recapping-the-mississippi-elections/

[Frodo]

Wrote this on my phone so probably could be written better but here is my recap on Tuesday's elections.

https://catfishpoboy.wordpress.com/2015/11/05/recapping-the-mississippi-elections/

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Interesting -do you know of any Democratic defections in the offing over in the Senate?