Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[Frodo]

gespb19-

If you had to guess, what would be the partisan makeup be of both Mississippi chambers come next January, compared with what we have now? I presume that Republicans are going to expand their majorities -the question is by how much.   

[gespb19]

I don't think it's a given that the GOP expands their majorities, though I expect them to retain control of both chambers when January 2016 rolls around.

Here's my prediction of the 20 house elections that I think will be competitive (earlier I said 18 were up for grabs, I meant to say 20. So the GOP starts off with 55 seats instead of 57 and the Dems with 47. 62 is the magic number). Names with a ^ aren't incumbents, but share the party affiliation of the retiring incumbent. Districts with a * are products of 2010 redistricting.

Spreadsheet colors are generic colors, not Atlas colors. Sorry, guys.



So based on that image, I guess my very early prediction of the House makeup is 66 GOP (55 non-competitive races + 11 competitive), 56 Dem (47 non-competitive + 9 competitive). Which means that the composition of the House remains the same as it is now.

Ok, here are my senate predictions. GOP should start off with 28 seats (20 uncontested + 8 contested) and the Dems at 18 seats (13 uncontested + 5 contested). That leaves us with 6 spots up for grabs. Incumbents on the left.



I'll say GOP grabs 4 of these seats, so that leaves us at 32 GOP, 20 Dem....which is the current composition of the senate. So, my predictions are very odd in that I think that the composition of both chambers will remain exactly the same, although some seats could flop. Still very early, and things can and will change....

[gespb19]

Interested to hear what my MS brethren (Harry/Del Tachi) have to say about my predictions.

[smoltchanov]

Sligtly more optimistic prediction that i made (based mostly on a fact that redistricting in the state was done by Republicans, who tried to maximize republican performance in the state, Expecially - at the expense of somewhat conservative-leaning white Democrats). I had Senate about 1-2 seats more Republican, and House - 3-4 seats more Republican, that it's now...

One question: i know very well that most of the really conservative Democrats, which were still numerous in legislature by 2007 (people like Shows, Bounds, Rogers, Mettetal, Smith, Browning, Patterson, White) and voted for Smith in speakership battle, are Republicans now. Mississippi Conservative Legislative Coalition is almost identical with Republican caucus now. Now the most conservative Democrats in legislature are people like Wilemon, Hale and Steverson, who are, essentially, a pragmatic moderate conservatives. Do Democrats try to regain at least some foothold in conservative white areas of the state (out of neccessity - running rather solidly conservative candidates), or they simply concentrate on Black (and few liberal) districts, being content on seceding conservative one to Republicans?

P.S. I am writing my observations and predictions from Moscow (Russia). Hope that my knowledge of Mississippi politics is enough for questions not being too silly)))

P.S. 2 Thanks for excellent job! As usually i would like to know more about candidates from ideological point of view (though i suppose, that even best Republicans are no more then Cochran-style pragmatic conservatives, after all - it's not a Vermont or Massachusetts, where you can get better from them)...

[gespb19]

Dems can still win state legislative elections in the rural, white parts of the state mainly because the Dems have solid benches in these areas. Democrats hold almost every countywide position in the very rural areas of the state, and a lot of those Dems will run for spots in the legislature. So yes, Dems should still concentrate on the rural/white areas of the state because MS whites will still vote for Democrats on the local level and on the state legislative level.

[smoltchanov]

Dems can still win state legislative elections in the rural, white parts of the state mainly because the Dems have solid benches in these areas. Democrats hold almost every countywide position in the very rural areas of the state, and a lot of those Dems will run for spots in the legislature. So yes, Dems should still concentrate on the rural/white areas of the state because MS whites will still vote for Democrats on the local level and on the state legislative level.

Thanks! And what about my question about really conservative Democrats (not Hagan-Landriew-Pryor-Manchin style centrists, who are routinely called "conservatives" by activists, but real ones)? Do they still exist (in Democratic party of Mississippi) or almost all migrated to Republicans? Do they still run for office (legislature, for example)? For me anything, that breaks standard ("liberal Democrat" vs "conservative Republican") routine is of interest. Simply because it's unusual))))

[gespb19]

Guys like Tom Miles and Nick Bain are pretty conservative Democrats in the House. Wilemon is a good example in the Senate. Most of the conservative Democrats have either moved over to the Republican side or just hold office on the county level.

I've often wondered how these very conservative Dems vote on the federal level. I guess they vote for Dems in house or senate races (where the Dem nominee in MS is typically somewhat conservative) but can't imagine they vote for someone like Obama or Kerry in presidential elections. A few years ago, the insurance commissioner here (who was a Democrat) commented about how he voted George Bush in 2004. Have to think that is fairly common among other conservative Dems in the state, although some may vote for the Democrat nominee.

[smoltchanov]

Guys like Tom Miles and Nick Bain are pretty conservative Democrats in the House. Wilemon is a good example in the Senate. Most of the conservative Democrats have either moved over to the Republican side or just hold office on the county level.

I've often wondered how these very conservative Dems vote on the federal level. I guess they vote for Dems in house or senate races (where the Dem nominee in MS is typically somewhat conservative) but can't imagine they vote for someone like Obama or Kerry in presidential elections. A few years ago, the insurance commissioner here (who was a Democrat) commented about how he voted George Bush in 2004. Have to think that is fairly common among other conservative Dems in the state, although some may vote for the Democrat nominee.

More thanks! If i remember correctly that Insurance commissioner (George Dale, who held office for 32 years) lost next Democratic primary. And, as routinely happens in South, office went not to more liberal Democratic primary winner (who, in addition, happened to be Black), but to conservative Republican Mike Chaney. The question - what have Democrats won as a result?))))

And more about conservative Democrats: of course, Miles, Bain, Wilemon (one could also add Hale, Steverson and some other) are conservative-leaning. But they generally stand on "right of center" or "moderate conservative" positions: the most conservative by Boris Shor analysis (Wilemon) had 0.392 rating, that corresponds to "moderate conservative".  Even after 2007 election peope like Smith, Nicholson, Browning, Bounds, Mettetal and other had 0.6 - 0.7 rating ("strong conservatives"). and late Bill Minor had even above 0.8 rating. That's whom i call "really conservative legislators". I doubt we can expect someone like them anymore...

P.S. Couple of differences between your spreadsheet and Ballotpedia:

1. Ballotpedia lists Democratic candidate in District 1 as Lisa Wigginton, not Wiggins

2. Massengill/Cluck race is in district 13, not 14

[gespb19]

Thanks, I fixed the spreadsheet and re-posted the screenshot with corrections.

[7,052,770]

Interested to hear what my MS brethren (Harry/Del Tachi) have to say about my predictions.

I'd say your specific knowledge on these races far exceeds mine. I'll be pretty disappointed if we don't knock out Sojourner though. She was already major low-hanging fruit, and the Democratic candidate is the same guy who used to represent the district for several terms and only barely lost to her in 2011.

[gespb19]

Yeah, I could have easily put Sojourner's district in the tilt D category. Maybe I should have done that.

The predictions I came up with for each race aren't scientific or anything overly complicated, I just did a little research on the key races/candidates and tried to make a guess/prediction. This will probably change once November rolls around, or if there are any primary upsets.

Brief rundown on how I came to the predictions that I posted earlier.

House

#1 (leans R) - 2 term GOP incumbent in a very white district (but has a history of supporting conservative Dems). Democrat challenger is the daughter of the guy who used to represent this district in the 90s.

#2 (leans D) - Dem incumbent Bain narrowly won here in '11, but he doesn't have strong GOP opposition this time around. Still maybe the Reps can pull off an upset if this is another wave election for GOP.

#3 (toss up/tilt D) - GOP incumbent Arnold won by just over 400 votes in '11 and represents a district that is generally receptive to conservative Dems. Lauren Childers (Travis' daughter) is the Dem challenger and will have a decent shot at taking back this seat for the Democrats.

#12 (lean R) - Brad Mayo (R) is the incumbent but Democrats have JP Hughes (Oxford alderman) running so this seat should be competitive. Leans R right now, but can't rule out a Hughes win.

#13 (toss-up/tilt R) - Massengill (R) won this seat in the 2011 wave election, but Cluck is a solid Dem challenger and this district has elected conservative Dems in the past. Probably could go either way but I'll call it for the GOP right now.

#19 (toss-up/tilt R) - GOP incumbent Randy Boyd was elected in the 2011 wave. Clint Gannon is the Dem challenger, he lost by 7 votes in a '11 election for a Lee County Justice Court Judge position. District includes rural Lee County and Itawamba County so the Dems are still strong here locally. I'll say it goes for the GOP right now, but this is another race that could be 50/50.

#21 (toss-up/tilt D) - Donnie Bell is the incumbent, he switched to the GOP a few years ago. His challenger is Aaron Loden, who is the popular tax collector in Itawamba County. Another strong Dixiecrat district + good Democrat nominee so I'll say that this race leans toward the Democrats.

#23 (leans R) - New district based in Eastern Starkville. Paul Millsaps is the Dem nominee, the GOP nominee is yet to be determined. Starkville/Oktibbeha Co. actually went Obama in the last 2 elections (state's largest university is located here), but have a hunch that the GOP pulls this one off.

#46 (toss-up/tilts D) - GOP incumbent retiring so this is an open seat. Multiple GOPers battling in primary, but Ken Strachan is unopposed for the Dems. Strachan is the coroner in Carroll County and is well-liked. GOP nominee is uncertain at this point, so I'll call it for the Democrats right now but this will be close regardless.

#48 (leans R) - Jason White (R and party switcher) is the incumbent in the Kosciusko-based district. Jill Butler has no experience in politics but is running a well-organized campaign. This race leans R although I wouldn't count out Butler.

#53 (toss-up/tilts D) - Bobby Moak is the incumbent and House Democrat leader. If the Dems take over the House, he could be speaker. Mangold is a local insurance agent, and has already been publicly endorsed by Gov. Bryant. This will be a big race, but I'll give Moak the edge for now.

#79 (leans D) - Bo Eaton is the incumbent Democrat. His challenger will probably be Gary Blakeney who lost in the GOP primary for this seat in '11. Eaton should have the advantage but maybe he'll lose if it's another GOP wave election.

#86 (toss-up/tilt D) - Sherra Lane (D) is the incumbent. She won in a fairly close election in '11 and has drawn a decent GOP challenger, who is a councilman in the district's anchor city. This is another race that could be very close, but I'll give it a tilt D rating.

#90 (toss-up/tilt R) - Longtime Dem retiring so an open seat here. Dems will nominate the fire chief of the district's anchor city but is going up against a GOP local lawyer who appears to be popular. I'll says GOP takes the seat, but I don't know much about this race.

#93 (leans R) - Timmy Ladner is the GOP incumbent, who rode the GOP wave to win 2011. His challenger is Democrat Billy Ladner (don't know if they are kin). Dems held this seat forever so maybe they take it back, but I think GOP holds here.

#105 (toss-up/tilt D) - GOP incumbent running for the senate, so an open seat. Roun McNeal will be the GOP nominee but he ran in the GOP primary for senate #43 in 2011 and did poorly. Dennis Cochran (D) is an administrator for the schools in the district's anchor city and probably has decent name recognition so I'll say this election tilts Dem.

#111 (leans R) - Incumbent Charles Busby is another GOPer that was elected in the 2011 wave. Kay Sims is the Democrat challenger, and doesn't appear to have any previous political experience. This seat had 2 very close elections in '11 and '07 so the GOP isn't locked in here but it seems to lean toward the Republicans.

#121 (leans R) - GOP incumbent Carolyn Crawford was elected in the 2011 wave and is a champion of school vouchers. Hunter Dawkins (son of Deborah Dawkins) is the Dem nominee. This seat leans R but maybe Dawkins' last name will help the Democrats' chances.

#122 (leans D) - David Baria is the Dem incumbent and is being challenged by Mickey Lagasse (R). Hancock County is strongly GOP on this federal/statewide level so Lagasse has a chance, but think Baria is back in Jackson come 2016.

Senate

#4 (toss-up/tilts R) - Parker is the GOP incumbent, who was helped by the GOP surge in 2011. Democrat challenger Powell represented this seat from 2007-2011 so this is a rematch. I'll say Parker wins a close one but Powell does have some good name recognition since he used to represent this district.

#9 (leans R) - Tollison is the GOP incumbent (party switcher) and will be challenged by self described progressive Cristen Hemmins. Hemmins is running a solid campaign and could be helped by the some of the local university students/young people but is still a slight underdog. Leans R.

#22 (toss-up/tilts D) - White Republican incumbent Buck Clarke represents a district that is about 55% black. I don't anything about his challenger but I'll say this election tilts D due to the demographics.

#37 (toss-up/tilts R) - Tea party favorite Melanie Sojourner will face Bob Dearing, who she beat in '11. Dearing represented this district for a long time and Sojourner pissed off folks when she voted no on a bill that would supply funds for construction work in Natchez (anchor city). I probably could have put this as a tilt D, but I gave Sojourner the nod because she is the incumbent.

#39 (leans R) - Sally Doty is the incumbent but could very well be primaried (she almost was in '11). She is especially vulrenable after a Memphis TV station reported that she was involved in an affair with a DeSoto County state representative. The Democrat challenger is Michael Smith who lost the Democrat primary for this seat in '11, but it was pretty close.

#48 (leans D) - Unapologetic liberal Deborah Dawkins represents this west Harrison County district. The GOP has a shot because this district is majority-white and the incumbent is quite liberal but the Republican challenger has no prior experience in politics and as a result, likely low name recognition. I'll say Dawkins wins this one.

Hope this post explains some of the reasoning behind my predictions posted earlier.

[smoltchanov]

Excellent analysis, which i generally agree with (of course - living abroad now i don't have so much local knowledge, but, generally, thought in the same way). In addition - some races (like Parker/Powell and Clarke/Thomas) will show whether voting polarization by race is "set in stone" in many parts of Mississippi  as it is in many federal races (in this case Powell will lose with bigger margin then in 2011, and Clarke will lose too) or voting for Legislature is still relatively elastic (i was mildly surprised that Wilemon doesn't have ANY opposition in his district, which is one of the most white distiricts in the state, for example...)

[Del Tachi]

I'll post-up a race-by-race analysis later, but I think that Democrats gain seats in the House and Senate. 

[7,052,770]

Is it Jolly (D) who represents a district that went over 60% Romney? Or Wilemon (D)?

[Del Tachi]

Is it Jolly (D) who represents a district that went over 60% Romney? Or Wilemon (D)?

Looking at the districts, its probably Wilemon as Jolly's district includes Chickasaw County. 

[gespb19]

Looking at the races again, I had House District 73 as a Dem win but forgot redistricting moved the boundaries to North Jackson/Madison County. So, Cory Wilson the Republican will take the seat without opposition. Prediction changes to 67 GOP, 55 Dems.

[smoltchanov]

Looking at the races again, I had House District 73 as a Dem win but forgot redistricting moved the boundaries to North Jackson/Madison County. So, Cory Wilson the Republican will take the seat without opposition. Prediction changes to 67 GOP, 55 Dems.

So, +1 Republicans. And that even with you being relatively optimistic about Democratic chances in traditionaly Dixiecratic areas. Well, after Democratic drubbing in most of state legislatures last November that would still be very good...

I gathered some statistic about competition for House districts. It seems it confirmes what i said earlier: Republicans practically ignore districts represented by Black Democrats - only about 3 republicans run in them and, if i understand correctly, their chances are next to nothing. White Democrat's districts are much more competitive from Republican point of view and very few white Democrats have no republican opposition (like Wilemon and Jolly in state Senate, Steverson, Holland and Sullivan in House). Plus, there are, probably, some white-black Democratic primaries....

Senate, most likely, is the same.

And some "idelogical" Democratic statistic, based (again) on Boris Shor research and his enormous state legislative dataset (i don't know any bigger and more detailed one): all Black Democratic incumbents in Mississippi legislature with one exception (Deborah Butler Dixon of 63th state House district, who is, essentially, a centrist) are more or less liberal: from very solid one to very cautious, more similar to "left center". Among white Democrats no one, but Debora Dawkins, is a "genuine liberal", but, after numerous party switches and some retirements of the past decade - there are no "solid conservatives" either (probably - first time in Mississippi's history since 19th century, even in 2011 people like Nickey Browning, Jason White and Randall Patterson ran and won as rather consistent conservatives, but - all switched): all other white legislators span a diapason from "solid left center, not very different from very moderate liberals" (people like Bob Evans and Hob Bryan) to "pragmatic moderate conservatives" like Wilemon and Hale in state Senate or Steverson in House.

Republicans (IMHO) have only 2 graduations in the state: "establishment (generally - more pragmatic) conservatives" and "rabid tea-party right-wingers"...

[gespb19]

Not 2015, but Mississippi related. Sure seems like Michael Watson is thinking about challenging Palazzo in MS-04 next March.

(Sorry for the Breitbart link)

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/06/11/mississippis-palazzo-under-fire-amid-obamatrade-indecisiveness/

[smoltchanov]

AFAIK - McDaniel thinks about that too. Southern Mississippi becoming a heaven for extreme right-wingers?

[gespb19]

AFAIK - McDaniel thinks about that too. Southern Mississippi becoming a heaven for extreme right-wingers?

Watson has a better shot than McDaniel, he may not have the name recognition McD has but he is a Coast guy and would get some of the Coast vote. If it was Palazzo/McD, Palazzo would do very well on the coast since he is a local guy and McD is not. Although McD would probably take most of the "pine belt" counties.

This is very premature, but Watson would likely win his home Jackson County (140k people) and maybe an outside shot at Hancock County but would lose Harrison County (187k people). Those are the 3 Gulf Coast counties. Watson would probably take most of the northern counties in the district except for the 2 Hattiesburg counties (Forrest/Lamar) because Palazzo used to live in the area and is a graduate of the local university.

My predicted map of a hypothetical race. Watson - Red, Palazzo - Blue

[smoltchanov]

Interesting, thanks! If i remember correctly Gene Taylor (as a Republican) beat Palazzo on coast, but lost rather heavily in "pine belt" in 2014 primary...

[gespb19]

Correct. That was also the case in 2010.

2014 map - Palazzo - Red, Taylor - Blue



2010 map of Taylor vs Palazzo (Jasper was within MS-04 boundaries in '10) - same colors

[gespb19]

Clarion Ledger on House races:

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/opinion/columnists/2015/06/06/handicapping-red-blue-battle-state-house/28605627/

[smoltchanov]

Good article. The only name i read there and NOT on your spreadsheet seems to be Sam Mims (HD-97). And, as could be expected, all 5 Democrats they mention are white...

[gespb19]

Speaker Gunn just said that the confederate emblem on the MS flag should be removed. He has no opposition, but wonder if any other GOPers will come out and say something similar.