Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[Del Tachi]

My understanding is that Cochran only ran in 2014 because the top GOPers wanted to handpick the next senator (in this scenario Cochran retires mid-term and Bryant appoints somebody, similar to Lott retiring mid-term in 2007). Maybe not though, the farm bill note is a good point. When Cochran steps down, I feel like Pickering would definitely run, he was prepared to run if Cochran didn't. Also think Hosemann is very interested in a possible Senate bid.

Eh, Cochran hedged on his 2014 decision because he unsure of the GOP's ability to win back the Senate.  Once he was persuaded that the GOP had more than even-odds to retake the upper chamber, his decision was easy: he wanted to be at the helm of Approps.  Chris McDaniel (or any other potential Senate candidate, for that matter) was a non-factor in Cochran's decision to seek reelection.

Do you guys think Chris McDaniel will run for Senate again at some point?

No.  Chris McDaniel isn't going to be able to touch any federal office with a ten-foot pole.  After his temper tantrum following his loss last year, not even the national Tea Party organizations have any love left for the guy.  In the event he goes for MS-04 next year, the race will be billed as competitive but I don't expect Steven Palazzo to have any serious problems if he locks-up the Gulf Coast.   

[SATW]

Mississippi's internal politics in the GOP are so of the more interesting ones in the deep south

[gespb19]

Mississippi's internal politics in the GOP are so of the more interesting ones in the deep south

Definitely. There are no big statewide establishment/tea party battles this year in the primary (unless you're counting the LG race where incumbent Reeves should win around 70-75% of the vote) but if the Tea Party can win some of these house or senate races it would be big for that wing of the Mississippi GOP.

[Del Tachi]

Mississippi's internal politics in the GOP are so of the more interesting ones in the deep south

Mississippi is interesting to outsiders because its one of the few states in the country where the Tea Party hasn't completely co-opted the state GOP.  The legacy of Haley Barbour will forever live-on. 

[7,052,770]

DT or anyone else, what do you know about John Mosley, the guy running against Chaney for Insurance Commissioner?

I'd assumed he was a Tea Party guy trying to play up the "Chaney lurves Obamacare!!!" angle, but after seeing and TV ad and his website, it looks like he's actually just running on sticking it to car insurance companies? And then the always-hilarious Yall Politics seems to think he's a closet Democrat who's buddy-buddy with Jim Hood and John Eaves?

I've been assuming I'd vote for Chaney this whole time*, but now I'm wondering...

_{*--Yes, despite saying I'd never do this just last year, I think I'm going to have to vote in the Republican primary, since that's literally the only way I get a voice in either state legislature seat, or Insurance Commissioner, or Treasurer, and because I want to vote for MHB in the Auditor race, and there's no real contested Democratic races worth voting on anyway.}

[gespb19]

Yeah there's no point of me voting in the Democrat primary even though my views align more with them compared to the GOP. County politics where I'm from are dominated by the GOP (rare in Mississippi) and all the local races will be involving Republicans. Not to mention that the GOP has multiple competitive statewide races compared to the Democrats where the races should be blowouts.

[Del Tachi]

Similar to Harry's dilemma, I will probably be voting in the Democratic primary this August.  All of the competitive primary elections in my county are on the Democratic side of the ballot, and its even questionable if a single Republican will win a office in my county.  The only thing that could get me into the GOP primary would be if I felt like I needed to "save Lynn" but I think she holds a small, yet consistent advantage over McRae.  Both the Insurance Commissioner and State Auditor races are safe for the GOP incumbents, imo.

DT or anyone else, what do you know about John Mosley, the guy running against Chaney for Insurance Commissioner?

Yes!  I actually ran into him at a recent political speaking I attended.  I thought it was quite funny because the event was rather small, he was the only candidate for statewide office in attendance, he was the only Republican candidate in attendance, and the event took place in one of the most insignificant counties in the entire state and is located several hours away from what one would consider to be "Moseley's base" of Metro Jackson.  He spoke for maybe about 5 or 6 minutes before the entire group (about 40 voters) and spoke almost exclusively about his experience working with auto insurers.  I thought that was an interesting angle to take against Chaney, but my bet would be that he's a genuine guy who has some sort of genuine beef with the InsComm office over auto insurance.  Seems like a good enough guy, but he'll still lose spectacularly.      

 

[7,052,770]

The only thing that could get me into the GOP primary would be if I felt like I needed to "save Lynn" but I think she holds a small, yet consistent advantage over McRae.  Both the Insurance Commissioner and State Auditor races are safe for the GOP incumbents, imo.

Interesting. Have you seen polling that says so, or is it just a general feeling? I've thought the opposite, although I could easily be wrong, as I don't really have any evidence.

I've been assuming McRae will probably win because he's raised twice as much money, run TV ads, seems to have more signs around, etc. His base in Madison and the general Jackson metro area is all going to be voting Republican -- there won't be any issues with Republicans voting in the D primary because of county races like there are in lots of areas in the state, so McRae will pile up lots of votes there.

Senate District 25 (Longwitz vs. Billingsley) should have the highest turnout of any Republican primary this year. There will be people going to the primary to vote for that race, and most of them will spillover to vote for McRae too. Then, Mary Hawkins Butler is extremely popular in Madison, and will get people out to the polls just to vote for her, and I think most of them who go out to vote for her will also vote McRae while they're at it. There should be a similar effect of people coming out primarily to vote for Longwitz, Billingsley, or McRae and also voting for MHB while they're there, which is why I think she still has a shot -- everyone in Madison is going to give coattails to everyone else.

I kinda suspect that Mary Hawkins Butler might be disliked statewide too much to win, and she hasn't raised as much money as Pickering, and I haven't seen any ads on TV for her. I'm not writing her off, though -- if she loses, it will be the first time she's ever lost anything in her life, counting her races and any other Madison/Madison County race she's cared about. I just can't imagine her bothering to run unless she expected to win. Maybe she thought she would back in February but was wrong.

[gespb19]

MHB could do pretty well on the Coast too, lot of those folks are mad at how he handled the coastal preserves program thing down there.

[7,052,770]

I also put together this chart of the State Senate. The numbers come from the official Mississippi GIS site:

[gespb19]

That's great, Wilemon really stand outs in that chart. Of course that district (Tish and Itawamba counties) has a strong Dixiecrat background.

[smoltchanov]

So, 36.5% Black seems to be a sort of "cut-off line": only 2 Republicans above it and only 2 Democrats (an "old style" - white, and, at least somewhat conservative leaning) - below...

[Green Line]

Whats the deal with the republican in the 54% black district?

[Del Tachi]

Whats the deal with the republican in the 54% black district?

Buck Clarke is a popular CPA with good relationships among the Black community and he's chairman of the Senate Approps Committee.  Everyone literally loves the guy.  No serious Black candidate bothers to run in that district because he's locked-up support from all of the big, Black churches and city/county officials.   

He's basically been doing what Thad Cochran did in 2014 for several years now.  One of the best state legislators, imo.   

[Green Line]

Whats the deal with the republican in the 54% black district?

Buck Clarke is a popular CPA with good relationships among the Black community and he's chairman of the Senate Approps Committee.  Everyone literally loves the guy.  No serious Black candidate bothers to run in that district because he's locked-up support from all of the big, Black churches and city/county officials.   

Interesting. Was the district whiter when he was first elected? That has to be the only district in the country like that I would think.

[gespb19]

Whats the deal with the republican in the 54% black district?

Buck Clarke is a popular CPA with good relationships among the Black community and he's chairman of the Senate Approps Committee.  Everyone literally loves the guy.  No serious Black candidate bothers to run in that district because he's locked-up support from all of the big, Black churches and city/county officials.   

Interesting. Was the district whiter when he was first elected? That has to be the only district in the country like that I would think.

IIRC it was a little whiter prior to redistricting (something like 49-50% black). This year he has a former state senator from Yazoo City running against him in the general so it should be a good race.

[7,052,770]

Its worth noting that Clarke's opponent, Joseph Thomas, is a former state senator who was primaried by KWJones in 2007. Redistricting has put him in the district.

So its not just some rando, but a real politician who's won a senate race before. Who knows if he'll win, but at least the Dems are running what seems on paper like a good candidate.

[Del Tachi]

The only thing that could get me into the GOP primary would be if I felt like I needed to "save Lynn" but I think she holds a small, yet consistent advantage over McRae.  Both the Insurance Commissioner and State Auditor races are safe for the GOP incumbents, imo.

Interesting. Have you seen polling that says so, or is it just a general feeling? I've thought the opposite, although I could easily be wrong, as I don't really have any evidence.

Most of my observations are anecdotal.  I've seen a smidgen of very outdated polling on the Treasurer's race and some more recent numbers on InsComm, and they both seemed to indicate that the incumbents were favored - albeit not by huge margins for Fitch.    

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not so fast.  Let's not forget that Lynn Fitch is also a longtime Madison County resident, and I think that put's her in a relatively strong position in Metro Jackson.  McRae is certainly a strong challenger, but I don't think he's going to be able to post the kind of numbers in Madison and Rankin counties that are going to erase Fitch's leads in DeSoto, Forrest/Lamar, the Coast, and the handful of Republican ballots that will be coming from other parts of the state.  I couldn't see McRae topping 60ish percent in Madison and Rankin.    

I agree with your assessment that there will be some interesting turnout dynamics for the GOP primary in Metro Jackson, and that these dynamics probably on balance  stand to benefit McRae and MHB but I just can't see that being enough to carry them over the finish line.  I don't have numbers to back-up that assessment, but just a general feeling.  I wouldn't be surprised if Fitch went down narrowly (or not so narrowly) on primary day, but I don't think McRae running the table in Metro Jackson would be enough to do it - he'd have to exceed expectations in DeSoto and the Coast.      

You must be logged in to read this quote.

My general understanding is that MHB's motivations in running lie in a longstanding beef she has with the current State Auditor regarding investigations into misappropriation of funds by the Madison County Board of Supervisors.  On top of that, her only concrete platform point seems to be that she wants to bring in accounting firms to do independent audits of all major state agencies annually (which, is strange because I thought that was what the auditor's job was suppose to be lol).  I just don't think she's a candidate that many of the Republican powerbrokers in the state can get behind, and I think she's going to go down quite spectacularly on August 4.      

[7,052,770]

Stacey Pickering under investigation from the FBI over misuse of campaign funds?
http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2015/07/23/sources-fbi-probing-pickering-campaign-funds/30595491/

[tmthforu94]

Yes! Hopefully this creates an opening for Mayor Mary!

[gespb19]

Yeah, that's not good for Pickering.

[Del Tachi]

Too little too late.  It won't stick. 

[7,052,770]

Too little too late.  It won't stick. 

I wouldn't be so sure. Like I said, Mary always gets her way.

I've heard the main reason she's running is to put Rudy Warnock and Gene McGee in jail. She might be adding Stacey Pickering to that list too...

[gespb19]

My understanding is that Mayor Mary is legitimately insane. Who knows though.

[7,052,770]

My understanding is that Mayor Mary is legitimately insane. Who knows though.

She couldn't have her outstanding mayoral record if she were totally insane.

And even if she were, it wouldn't change the fact that this looks really bad for Pickering. Remember, the auditor of all people has to be even cleaner than any other office -- if a different state officer had done this, it would be Pickering's job to nail him. We'll see what the investigation produces, but from what we've seen so far, Pickering should no longer be able to serve as Auditor. He shouldn't just drop out of the race, he should resign and hire a good expensive lawyer.

Another interesting thought I've had is what if Pickering still pulls it out on August 4 and then heads to jail this fall? I know parties can replace the nominee if he/she dies, but surely they can't if the person is disqualified due to crimes? If so, think about all the positive national news stories if Mississippi elects a lesbian (and not just a lesbian -- the plaintiff in the Mississippi gay marriage suit) to statewide office!