Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[gespb19]

Ha, yeah. I thought the same thing. Mississippi electing an open lesbian to statewide office would be something.

[gespb19]

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My understanding is that Mayor Mary is legitimately insane. Who knows though.

She couldn't have her outstanding mayoral record if she were totally insane.

And even if she were, it wouldn't change the fact that this looks really bad for Pickering. Remember, the auditor of all people has to be even cleaner than any other office -- if a different state officer had done this, it would be Pickering's job to nail him. We'll see what the investigation produces, but from what we've seen so far, Pickering should no longer be able to serve as Auditor. He shouldn't just drop out of the race, he should resign and hire a good expensive lawyer.

Another interesting thought I've had is what if Pickering still pulls it out on August 4 and then heads to jail this fall? I know parties can replace the nominee if he/she dies, but surely they can't if the person is disqualified due to crimes? If so, think about all the positive national news stories if Mississippi elects a lesbian (and not just a lesbian -- the plaintiff in the Mississippi gay marriage suit) to statewide office!

If there is a libertarian or consititution party candidate on the ballot, MS would probably vote for them over an open lesbian.

[gespb19]

My understanding is that Mayor Mary is legitimately insane. Who knows though.

She couldn't have her outstanding mayoral record if she were totally insane.

And even if she were, it wouldn't change the fact that this looks really bad for Pickering. Remember, the auditor of all people has to be even cleaner than any other office -- if a different state officer had done this, it would be Pickering's job to nail him. We'll see what the investigation produces, but from what we've seen so far, Pickering should no longer be able to serve as Auditor. He shouldn't just drop out of the race, he should resign and hire a good expensive lawyer.

Another interesting thought I've had is what if Pickering still pulls it out on August 4 and then heads to jail this fall? I know parties can replace the nominee if he/she dies, but surely they can't if the person is disqualified due to crimes? If so, think about all the positive national news stories if Mississippi elects a lesbian (and not just a lesbian -- the plaintiff in the Mississippi gay marriage suit) to statewide office!

If there is a libertarian or consititution party candidate on the ballot, MS would probably vote for them over an open lesbian.

Think the Reform has someone in.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

My understanding is that Mayor Mary is legitimately insane. Who knows though.

She couldn't have her outstanding mayoral record if she were totally insane.

And even if she were, it wouldn't change the fact that this looks really bad for Pickering. Remember, the auditor of all people has to be even cleaner than any other office -- if a different state officer had done this, it would be Pickering's job to nail him. We'll see what the investigation produces, but from what we've seen so far, Pickering should no longer be able to serve as Auditor. He shouldn't just drop out of the race, he should resign and hire a good expensive lawyer.

Another interesting thought I've had is what if Pickering still pulls it out on August 4 and then heads to jail this fall? I know parties can replace the nominee if he/she dies, but surely they can't if the person is disqualified due to crimes? If so, think about all the positive national news stories if Mississippi elects a lesbian (and not just a lesbian -- the plaintiff in the Mississippi gay marriage suit) to statewide office!

If there is a libertarian or consititution party candidate on the ballot, MS would probably vote for them over an open lesbian.

Think the Reform has someone in.

Ah, the Pat Buchanan enthusiasts. It would be hilarious to see one of them elected.

[7,052,770]

My understanding is that Mayor Mary is legitimately insane. Who knows though.

She couldn't have her outstanding mayoral record if she were totally insane.

And even if she were, it wouldn't change the fact that this looks really bad for Pickering. Remember, the auditor of all people has to be even cleaner than any other office -- if a different state officer had done this, it would be Pickering's job to nail him. We'll see what the investigation produces, but from what we've seen so far, Pickering should no longer be able to serve as Auditor. He shouldn't just drop out of the race, he should resign and hire a good expensive lawyer.

Another interesting thought I've had is what if Pickering still pulls it out on August 4 and then heads to jail this fall? I know parties can replace the nominee if he/she dies, but surely they can't if the person is disqualified due to crimes? If so, think about all the positive national news stories if Mississippi elects a lesbian (and not just a lesbian -- the plaintiff in the Mississippi gay marriage suit) to statewide office!

If there is a libertarian or consititution party candidate on the ballot, MS would probably vote for them over an open lesbian.

Think the Reform has someone in.

Ah, the Pat Buchanan enthusiasts. It would be hilarious to see one of them elected.

There's no chance of that. They have no money, no website, no organization, and they run the same candidates over and over, year after year. (And while I can't confirm this because the candidate has no internet presence at all, the name appears to be a black woman, which unfortunately is a bridge too far, at least for a third-party no-money no-name candidate.)

If by some chance (and I don't think this is likely at all), the ballot just had Democrat and Reform, JP would win with 70% of the vote or so.

[gespb19]

Looks like the candidate is a Hattiesburg Walmart employee, appears she is white.

[gespb19]

Philip Gunn speaking at Neshoba on Thursday. That'll be fun.

[gespb19]

These are the counties to watch for next Tuesday, together they made around 80% of the GOP primary vote in 2011.

[smoltchanov]

So, "native" Republican electorate (not conservative Democrats, who vote Republican in November) is heavily concentrated in southern part of the state (except DeSoto and Tupelo area), while "Dixiecratic" vote - in the North-East?

[gespb19]

Yes, below are some maps of how the primary vote has evolved in statewide elections. Red counties are where the GOP primary vote was larger than the Dem primary vote. (Note: Hinds County has a large GOP vote total but is not in red because of large black population that votes in Dem primary which outnumbers GOP total)

1999



2003



2007



2011

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks! All clear)))

[ElectionsGuy]

I find it fascinating across all southern states that the Republican strength first came from urban and suburban areas. They were the first ones to actually call themselves Republicans, but over time rural whites are slowly shedding traces of Democratic voting and Democratic identification.

[gespb19]

Not related to statewide races, but is Mississisppi related. Jeb Bush wins Neshoba straw poll. 230 total participants.

Full results: http://neshobademocrat.com/main.asp?FromHome=1&TypeID=1&ArticleID=36376&SectionID=63&SubSectionID=493

[smoltchanov]

I find it fascinating across all southern states that the Republican strength first came from urban and suburban areas. They were the first ones to actually call themselves Republicans, but over time rural whites are slowly shedding traces of Democratic voting and Democratic identification.

Historically - yes. But right now it's not always true. In a sense that close suburbs of southern big cities (not exurbs!) are less Republican now, then many rural areas. And many urban areas, where movement to Republican party began in 1950 - 1960, are Democratic-leaning now (Dallas, Atlanta, and so on). Texas, where rural areas became not simply Republican, but - extremely Republican, and where Democrats usually don't run candidates at all in these areas, is good example..

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Shot in the Dark Predictions for the Contested Statewide Primaries on Tuesday:

GOP Auditor

Pickering: 56%
Butler: 44%

DEM Governor

Slater: 68%
Gray: 20%
Short: 12%

GOP Governor

Bryant: 85%
Young: 15%

GOP Insurance Commissioner

Chaney: 64%
Mosley: 36%

DEM Lt. Governor

Johnson: 57%
Barr: 43%

GOP Lt. Governor

Reeves: 78%
McElhenney: 22%

GOP Treasurer

Fitch: 82%
McRae: 18%

[gespb19]

Most of those are reasonable, except Fitch/McRae is going to be close (within 10 points, most likely) and I think Johnson beats Barr by around 30-40 points. And Slater will win easily, but I think Short finishes 2nd behind her.

Also: Clarion Ledger has endorsed Hawkins-Butler: http://www.clarionledger.com/longform/opinion/editorials/2015/08/01/2015-primary-endorsements/30986443/

[smoltchanov]

^ So, no more then 1 relatively close statewide race? Hope that legislative races will be more interesting....

[Del Tachi]

McRae's money advantage is really showing in the final stretch.  There was a stinging ad to come out on Fitch over the past few days, and as much as I hate to admit it, it's good and hits her in all of the weak spots.  Fitch has stumbled and seems to not have adequately responded.  After some further thinking about it, I'm going to say that McRae has a slight advantage going into Tuesday.

Ranking the statewide races something like this:

GOP Governor - Safe Bryant
DEM Governor - Likely Slater
GOP Lt. Governor - Safe Reeves
DEM Lt. Governor - Likely Johnson
GOP Treasurer - Tossup/Advantage McRae
GOP Auditor - Lean Pickering
GOP Insurance Commissioner - Safe Chaney

And some interesting legislative primaries that I feel educated about:

GOP SD 6 - Tossup/Advantage McMahan
DEM SD10 - Tossup/Advantage Hale
GOP SD 25 - Likely Longwitz
GOP HD 43 - Likely Robertson

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Modifying my Treasurer Prediction.

Shot in the Dark Predictions for the Contested Statewide Primaries on Tuesday:

GOP Auditor

Pickering: 56%
Butler: 44%

DEM Governor

Slater: 68%
Gray: 20%
Short: 12%

GOP Governor

Bryant: 85%
Young: 15%

GOP Insurance Commissioner

Chaney: 64%
Mosley: 36%

DEM Lt. Governor

Johnson: 57%
Barr: 43%

GOP Lt. Governor

Reeves: 78%
McElhenney: 22%

GOP Treasurer

Fitch: 53%
McRae: 47%

[gespb19]

Those predictions look good, DT, although I still think Fitch wins in a nailbiter.

Some legislative races I'll be watching (in addition to some listed earlier)

Any DeSoto County race involving a Tea Partier (SD1, HD7, HD24, HD25, HD28, HD40)
SD43 GOP: Incumbent Phillip Gandy vs Rep. Dennis Debar
SD21 Dem: Kenny Wayne Jones (inc.) vs Barbara Blackmon
SD37 GOP: Tea Party incumbent Sojourner (McDaniel campaign manager) drew 2 challengers in primary
SD10 Dem: Two incumbents Bill Stone vs Steve Hale
HD35 GOP: Incumbent Joey Hood vs Tea Party Brian Sims
HD58 GOP: Open seat in Madison between ultra-conservative Joel Bomgar and Bruce Bartley

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks. I hope we will get a good discussion of results (and what they mean) later this week...

[7,052,770]

#Marymentum in full swing! The walls of Jericho crumble Tuesday!

I agree with the rest of above classifications. I think Mosley must either be a closet Obamacare supporter, or just not very well-informed about it. I think if he'd made "Chaney loves Obamacare!!!1" the focus of his campaign he probably would've won.

[Del Tachi]

#Marymentum in full swing! The walls of Jericho crumble Tuesday!

I agree with the rest of above classifications. I think Mosley must either be a closet Obamacare supporter, or just not very well-informed about it. I think if he'd made "Chaney loves Obamacare!!!1" the focus of his campaign he probably would've won.

An auto-mechanic from Clinton isn't the best candidate to credibly deliver an anti-Obamacare message.  If some ambitious, Tea Party-type state legislator had turned the InsComm race into a referendum on Chaney's stance on Obamacare then we'd be looking at a much different race.  The fact that Chaney garnered no serious opposition in the primary is indicative to me that the MSGOP has its act together and just wants the Obamacare issue to go away more than anything else. 

[gespb19]

Any idea on who is backing who in the treasurer race? It's my understanding that Reeves is behind McRae but unsure who the Barbour machine and Bryant are supporting.