Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[windjammer]

How many seats will MS republicans pick up? Could they lose seats?

[smoltchanov]

How many seats will MS republicans pick up? Could they lose seats?

Few (most likely - one, Dawkins's,  she is simply very liberal, much more then her district) in Senate, more (my present guess is about 5, after disastrous governor primary) - in House.

Democrats may pick seats here and there, but - few, with such strong statewide Republican coattails. In addition - voting in the state is heavily polarized along racial lines, and there are relatively few (though they exist) really competitive "purple" districts. Math is, generally, simple: most districts in the state (especially - majority-white) are generally conservative. In the past Democrats could compete in many of them running strongly conservative candidates (almost as conservative as Republicans, and in some rare cases - even more so). Such candidates are, essentially, extinct, on Democratic side, so their (Democrats) chances lie almost exclusively in more liberal (usually - majority Black) districts, and only few besides them.... That easily guarantees Democrats about 40 districts, but it's extremely difficult for them to get 61....

Of course - everything is my personal post-primary guess...

[7,052,770]

I am disgusted. I never thought we'd hit rock bottom like this.

Vicki Slater went out on a limb to run for governor. Yes, she was always going to be a big longshot against Bryant, but she was at least going to try.

In future years, it's going to be even harder to recruit viable candidates for statewide office because they'll have legitimate reason to worry they'll get Grayed.

[smoltchanov]

I am disgusted. I never thought we'd hit rock bottom like this.

Vicki Slater went out on a limb to run for governor. Yes, she was always going to be a big longshot against Bryant, but she was at least going to try.

In future years, it's going to be even harder to recruit viable candidates for statewide office because they'll have legitimate reason to worry they'll get Grayed.

Who are responsible for that? Voters? But you will not get different voters in foreseeable future... So - what to do??

BTW, i am still curious to know whether Gray is really Black or white?

[Del Tachi]

Ugh.  And to think that I was a probable Slater voter...

Overall though, it turned out to be a pretty good night as far as statewide races go.  Pickering and Fitch survived much more easily than most were expecting.  Not much good news on the legislative front though, with Nancy Collins going down quite spectacularly, Melanie Sojourner and Michael Watson winning their could-have-been competitive primaries, and Steve Hale losing to Bill Stone.  

But to agree with Harry, yes, the MS Dems are now a complete joke and Ricky Cole should resign.  While Slater had almost no chance of beating Bryant, she would have created enough buzz to buoy other Democrats in local/legislative races.  Jim Hood could really suffer with Slater not at the top of the ticket, although I still think he's narrowly favored.  I guess the only bright spot for the Dems this go around is they got Tim Johnson for LG - a former GOP State Senator from Madison County - and by giving him the microphone this fall they can maybe change some hearts and minds over Medicaid expansion.

Also, answer me this...what would happen if Gray decided to drop-out?  Seems like MS Dems might be able to convince a man who didn't even bother voting for himself that he should get out of the race.  If he dropped-out, would the MS Dem Committee be able to pick another candidate to represent them in the general?  Could it be Slater?    

[gespb19]

I'll say it again, Democrats totally deserve this for nominating awful candidates. They could have at least ran a mayor like Connie Moran or somebody like that. But instead they got behind a trial lawyer from Madison and got burned in the primary because she had no name ID. Rickey Cole is an idiot.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'll say it again, Democrats totally deserve this for nominating awful candidates. They could have at least ran a mayor like Connie Moran or somebody like that. But instead they got behind a trial lawyer from Madison and got burned in the primary because she had no name ID. Rickey Cole is an idiot.

I think the democrats were originally going for Childers or Presley. But when neither would run, they were sent scrambling.

[gespb19]

I'll say it again, Democrats totally deserve this for nominating awful candidates. They could have at least ran a mayor like Connie Moran or somebody like that. But instead they got behind a trial lawyer from Madison and got burned in the primary because she had no name ID. Rickey Cole is an idiot.

I think the democrats were originally going for Childers or Presley. But when neither would run, they were sent scrambling.

Childers was never going to run, Presley wasn't going to run either (at least in this cycle). I wish they could have convinced some state legislator to run, they would have likely gotten blown out but would at least have political experience.

[Del Tachi]

I'll say it again, Democrats totally deserve this for nominating awful candidates. They could have at least ran a mayor like Connie Moran or somebody like that. But instead they got behind a trial lawyer from Madison and got burned in the primary because she had no name ID. Rickey Cole is an idiot.

I think the democrats were originally going for Childers or Presley. But when neither would run, they were sent scrambling.

Childers was never going to run, Presley wasn't going to run either (at least in this cycle). I wish they could have convinced some state legislator to run, they would have likely gotten blown out but would at least have political experience.

Running for statewide office in Mississippi as an incumbent, Democratic state legislator is the same as retiring. 

[gespb19]

I'll say it again, Democrats totally deserve this for nominating awful candidates. They could have at least ran a mayor like Connie Moran or somebody like that. But instead they got behind a trial lawyer from Madison and got burned in the primary because she had no name ID. Rickey Cole is an idiot.

I think the democrats were originally going for Childers or Presley. But when neither would run, they were sent scrambling.

Childers was never going to run, Presley wasn't going to run either (at least in this cycle). I wish they could have convinced some state legislator to run, they would have likely gotten blown out but would at least have political experience.

Running for statewide office in Mississippi as an incumbent, Democratic state legislator is the same as retiring.  

Yep, that's why it is hard to convince state legislators to run. Especially with Bryant being a heavy favorite regardless. Slater was a bad candidate regardless.

[PAK Man]

One question I have is how much advertising did any of the Dem candidates do? Based on this outsider's perspective, it seems to me that none of the three candidates did any advertising and voters just went for whoever came first alphabetically.

[7,052,770]

One question I have is how much advertising did any of the Dem candidates do? Based on this outsider's perspective, it seems to me that none of the three candidates did any advertising and voters just went for whoever came first alphabetically.

Slater and Short at least had billboards and spoke at Neshoba.

ETA: Slater had TV commercials too, although I don't remember seeing one.

[7,052,770]

Well, it looks like Robert Gray isn't a raving lunatic, nor is he a Bible-thumping conservative. So that's a relief. I can vote for him in November with a clean conscience.

Still demand the resignation of all the state Democratic party leadership, of course.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, it looks like Robert Gray isn't a raving lunatic, nor is he a Bible-thumping conservative.

Source?

[gespb19]

Well, it looks like Robert Gray isn't a raving lunatic, nor is he a Bible-thumping conservative.

Source?

https://www.periscope.tv/w/aJI0vTQ3MDkwMTV8NTQ1MDI0ODfoqZg1MzpxV5_Zw-9hpV1ViULJZHY-yhSE9ZH7flhWuw==

Seems like a nice guy, wants to expand Medicaid and fund education. Also supportive of changing flag.

[7,052,770]

Jim Hood could really suffer with Slater not at the top of the ticket, although I still think he's narrowly favored.

I think Hood should be fine. He won huge landslides at the same time Eaves and DuPree were going down hard. Gray can't really do THAT much worse than DuPree did anyway. I'm comfortable calling the race Likely D right now.

Also, answer me this...what would happen if Gray decided to drop-out?  Seems like MS Dems might be able to convince a man who didn't even bother voting for himself that he should get out of the race.  If he dropped-out, would the MS Dem Committee be able to pick another candidate to represent them in the general?  Could it be Slater?

I think the party would get absolutely skewered nationally and in Mississippi if it dumped its fairly-elected nominee for someone who lost, even more than we're getting skewered now.

[136or142]

Jim Hood could really suffer with Slater not at the top of the ticket, although I still think he's narrowly favored.

I think Hood should be fine. He won huge landslides at the same time Eaves and DuPree were going down hard. Gray can't really do THAT much worse than DuPree did anyway. I'm comfortable calling the race Likely D right now.

Also, answer me this...what would happen if Gray decided to drop-out?  Seems like MS Dems might be able to convince a man who didn't even bother voting for himself that he should get out of the race.  If he dropped-out, would the MS Dem Committee be able to pick another candidate to represent them in the general?  Could it be Slater?

I think the party would get absolutely skewered nationally and in Mississippi if it dumped its fairly-elected nominee for someone who lost, even more than we're getting skewered now.

Nobody mentioned dumping him, just asking him to drop out.  There are precedents for that.

[gespb19]

Looks like Brian Pearse beat Hunter Dawkins by 1 vote in HD121 Dem primary after a recount. Dawkins had a better shot at beating Carolyn Crawford in November.

[gespb19]

A few grasping-at-straws theories:

• His name being first on the ballot helped
• A lot of suburban Democrats (like me) voted in the Republican primary due to local races, costing Slater votes
• A lot of rural Republicans vote in Democratic primaries due to local races, and they may have just voted for the first name, or intentionally picked the generic/white-sounding man's name.
• Some voters may have heard a blurb about Democrats running a lesbian and somehow confused Pritchett with Slater/Short and therefore picked a man's name
• Slater and Short did have campaign signs, but they may have been almost entirely in the Jackson Metro, where most people voted Republican

Rickey Cole better resign over this. What a joke.

Let me address each of these theories.

1. Yes, especially when all 3 candidates had very low name ID (although I'm sure Rickey Cole thought Slater was a household name)
2. Yes, but who is to say those voters would have gone for Slater?
3. Maybe, but Gray did just as well in the rural white parts as he did in the rural black parts.
4. Highly doubt this had any effect. In fact, I don't think 10% of the Dem electorate know about Pritchett's sexual orientation, and if they did, it's unlikely that it affected their voting in the Gov primary.
5. This is a decent theory, as Gray did worst in the most urban areas in the state (Jackson Metro and the Gulf Coast). But the lesson here is that Slater should have made a better effort in the rural areas, where no one had any idea who she was. I will say that I did not see a Slater sign at my precinct in Hattiesburg.

I'm looking forward to seeing the precinct results.

[Adam Griffin]

I find it interesting that just as many Democrats as Republicans voted in the Primary. Did it have something to do with the fact that there was no competitive race on the Republican side?

No, it has to do because MS Democrats are still king in local elections:

[gespb19]

I find it interesting that just as many Democrats as Republicans voted in the Primary. Did it have something to do with the fact that there was no competitive race on the Republican side?

Local races. Rural conservatives vote Dem because of county offices being dominated by Dems. Liberals will vote GOP if their county is GOP dominated locally (which was the case with me yesterday). The turnout was very close to being equal this year. Usually Dems have much larger turnout.

[Panda Express]

Not sure where all this whining is coming from. Both Slater and this random truck driver would have been beaten like canon fodder in a 60-40 rout no matter what. The race wasn't competitive. Besides, it's not as if anyone took the Mississippi Democratic Party (or Mississippi in general) seriously before this anyways.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Not sure where all this whining is coming from. Both Slater and this random truck driver would have been beaten like canon fodder in a 60-40 rout no matter what. The race wasn't competitive. Besides, it's not as if anyone took the Mississippi Democratic Party (or Mississippi in general) seriously before this anyways.

Slater (and Short) actually campaigned for the nomination. Slater was vigorously supported by party leaders. Yet Gray, who had ZERO name recongition, literally raised $0, did not have a single campaign sign , and who did not even vote for himself, wins, without a runoff. This is the sort of stuff that is NEVER supposed to happen in politics. Gray will lose by a wider margin in November than Slater or Short would have, and that could matter in close legislative races.

[gespb19]

Gray will lose by a wider margin in November than Slater or Short would have, and that could matter in close legislative races.

I disagree. I think this will boost his name ID and may get a few people to vote for him who would have otherwise stayed home. Personally, I think he is a likable guy (much more so than Slater) and he'll also be able to play the "not a career politician" card well.

[gespb19]

I emailed the state party about a possible bumper sticker for the Gray campaign. Here is what I got back:

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