Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[smoltchanov]

2 RG Griff Thanks for excellent map!

And one question - will not Pearse be slightly better then Dawkins (probably - as liberal as his mother is) in Republican-leaning district? Again, IMHO, candidates must be tailor-made for their district - and this particular is unlikely to elect fiery liberal...

[136or142]

If the State Democratic Party gets behind his candidacy, to the degree that they have any money to do so, Robert Gray has the chance to be another Victor Morales.

Morales was the upset winner of the U.S Senate Democratic Primary in Texas in 1996 who defeated two somewhat high profile U.S Representatives for the nomination.

Of course, unlike Robert Gray, Morales actively campaigned, I believe throughout the state in his pickup truck.  He also had a slight electoral history as a fairly small town city councilor.

However, Morales did play up his 'every man' non politician profile in both the primary and the general.

Of course, Morales lost to John Cornyn (as he lost 2 subsequent bids when many of his supporters complained that he had become much more of a 'slick' candidate), but he ended up performing much better than most pundits and party insiders believed he ever would when he won the nomination in 1996.

In my opinion, Victor Morales should be the model for Gray, after all, he already has the truck.

[Del Tachi]

I find it interesting that just as many Democrats as Republicans voted in the Primary. Did it have something to do with the fact that there was no competitive race on the Republican side?

No, it has to do because MS Democrats are still king in local elections:

beautiful map

[gespb19]

And one question - will not Pearse be slightly better then Dawkins (probably - as liberal as his mother is) in Republican-leaning district? Again, IMHO, candidates must be tailor-made for their district - and this particular is unlikely to elect fiery liberal...

I don't think so. The Dawkins last name would help him, I'd guess. Deborah Dawkins may be liberal, but she keeps getting elected (3 times) so it doesn't appear to be that big of a deal to the voters.

[smoltchanov]

And one question - will not Pearse be slightly better then Dawkins (probably - as liberal as his mother is) in Republican-leaning district? Again, IMHO, candidates must be tailor-made for their district - and this particular is unlikely to elect fiery liberal...

I don't think so. The Dawkins last name would help him, I'd guess. Deborah Dawkins may be liberal, but she keeps getting elected (3 times) so it doesn't appear to be that big of a deal to the voters.

Nevertheless - she has difficult race on her hands this time (almost alone among Democratic state Senators), and may finally lose (especially - with such nonstandard governor candidate at the top of the ticket). In fact, according to some ratings, Dawkins is more liberal then majority of black state Senators from reliably Democratic majority-minority districts. IMHO, for such deeply conservative state as Mississippi that may be somewhat too much..

[gespb19]

Here are my post-primary ratings. Only changed the ratings on a couple of races (but only changed the outcome of one). The one outcome that I did change was the Sojourner/Dearing matchup.

House: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GQqfDaAOeviyYURK4LpFpGCr0WxyiUWFjXMxrZppfSQ/edit#gid=0

Senate: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bzQrna6lzMbBQDkTjnQSWBRxscVeuj32KA2bOHh83Zc/edit#gid=0

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks! So, some Republican gains in Senate, almost status quo in House, and difficult race for Democratic leader in House Moak? Well, not bad after all. Immediately after primary the feelings among Mississippi Democrats seemed to be much more pessimistic..

[Adam Griffin]

Can I get an amen for this rather clairvoyant yet always applicable post I made on AAD a month ago? At the time, it was in reference to Libertas saying "Bernie can win a majority of black voters!" but covers the topic of Deep South Democratic primary flubs and why they happen. I know it's long but it's detailed and explains to anyone who's interested in this MS debacle (or the 2014 TN Dem Gov race, the 2012 TN Dem Senate race, and so on) why this keeps happening with increasing frequency.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[smoltchanov]

^ Well - interesting. I independently came to mostly similar conclusions. And because Russians usually don't give a damn about "political correctness" (and, surely, i - don't) - still adhere to it... Thanks!

[7,052,770]

Here are my post-primary ratings. Only changed the ratings on a couple of races (but only changed the outcome of one). The one outcome that I did change was the Sojourner/Dearing matchup.

House: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GQqfDaAOeviyYURK4LpFpGCr0WxyiUWFjXMxrZppfSQ/edit#gid=0

Senate: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bzQrna6lzMbBQDkTjnQSWBRxscVeuj32KA2bOHh83Zc/edit#gid=0

I don't know much about the House races (there are so many of them!), but I think your Senate predictions look about right.

All of your "Likely ..." are probably Safe (especially Sampson Jackson, who is unopposed), although you be may using a very strict definition of "Safe"

Personally, I have very little faith in Eric Powell, a black Democrat, winning in a 90% white, 70% Romney district. I don't have any real knowledge of the race beyond the demographics, but I think white NE Mississippians went through a weird phase in 2007/2008 (also electing Travis Childers) and then snapped back to normal once Obama became president. I think Powell's victory there in 2007 is more likely to be lightning-in-a-bottle fluke rather than something he can repeat in 2015.

ETA: If you have Dawkins winning, it's still R+1 right?

[smoltchanov]

^ AFAIK - Travis Childers and Eric Powell are very dissimilar: one is somewhat conservative (though - populist) inclined white Democrat of "good old boy" type, another - slightly left-of-center Black Democrat of "new generation". Besides both being Democrats - not much in common.....

Though i agree with your rating: the race is at least "likely Republican" in my book... After Obama - few Mississippi voters cross "established racial lines".... As i said many times - i still have a gut feeling that deeply inside many whites still think - "you, national Democrats,  forced us to abandon a lifestyle we got accustomed to for century and a half, and our principles (yes, including white's political dominance), but you can't force us to vote for your candidates. Most Blacks vote Democratic? Fine. We will vote Republican to neutralize them...".... Almost no one will acknowledge that publicly, but many vote exactly in accordance with such reasoning... They will vote for those they consider "their own" (as Wilemon, absolutely unopposed in very white and Republican  (on high level) district), but - that's all...

[gespb19]

Here are my post-primary ratings. Only changed the ratings on a couple of races (but only changed the outcome of one). The one outcome that I did change was the Sojourner/Dearing matchup.

House: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GQqfDaAOeviyYURK4LpFpGCr0WxyiUWFjXMxrZppfSQ/edit#gid=0

Senate: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bzQrna6lzMbBQDkTjnQSWBRxscVeuj32KA2bOHh83Zc/edit#gid=0

I don't know much about the House races (there are so many of them!), but I think your Senate predictions look about right.

All of your "Likely ..." are probably Safe (especially Sampson Jackson, who is unopposed), although you be may using a very strict definition of "Safe"

Personally, I have very little faith in Eric Powell, a black Democrat, winning in a 90% white, 70% Romney district. I don't have any real knowledge of the race beyond the demographics, but I think white NE Mississippians went through a weird phase in 2007/2008 (also electing Travis Childers) and then snapped back to normal once Obama became president. I think Powell's victory there in 2007 is more likely to be lightning-in-a-bottle fluke rather than something he can repeat in 2015.

ETA: If you have Dawkins winning, it's still R+1 right?

Thanks for pointing out my mistake on Sampson Jackson, and yes it should be GOP +1 not +2.

I do think Powell will have a shot. He almost won in 2011 in a big GOP wave year, although yes it is crazy to me that a black Democrat can win in a 90% white district (and this district went BIG for the old flag in 2001). Powell is black, but he is somewhat conservative (endorsed Personhood).

What will be interesting to me is if he wins in November, and then the flag comes up for a vote in the Legislature. He, as a black Democrat in a very conservative 90% white district, will be put in a  tough spot.

[gespb19]

Also, yes a few of my "likely R" races could easily be "safe R" but didn't put them there just in case something bizarre happened.

[smoltchanov]

^ AFAIK - some Southern blacks are socially conservative (especially - from rural areas), so Personhood may be popular among them. Usually their ltypical left-of-center position on economy trumps that, but - nevertheless... And yes, Powell's surprise election was before Obama's election, which, IMHO, served (and continue to serve) as a very polarizing feature in many minds since 2008. We shall see.

[7,052,770]

One of the several reasons Personhood failed is that blacks overwhelmingly rejected it.

If Powell "supported" Personhood, it's because he was a desperate wuss trying to say anything to get reelected. I highly doubt he actually believes that abortion should be illegal in all cases, including rape, that birth control pills and IVF should be banned, that police should investigate miscarriages the same way they would in a child's death, etc.

Either way, I don't really care if he wins in November or not after knowing that. Ideally, we'd primary out every "Democratic" legislator who supported Personhood -- every single one of them is either a beyond-the-pale extremist conservative, or will say anything while flailing to get votes. Personhood is the absolute craziest, most vile, off-the-deep-end right-wing idea that's been somewhat mainstream this century.

[gespb19]

Who knows? Personhood did quite well in his district, so maybe he was pandering for votes.

[smoltchanov]

One of the several reasons Personhood failed is that blacks overwhelmingly rejected it.

If Powell "supported" Personhood, it's because he was a desperate wuss trying to say anything to get reelected. I highly doubt he actually believes that abortion should be illegal in all cases, including rape, that birth control pills and IVF should be banned, that police should investigate miscarriages the same way they would in a child's death, etc.

Either way, I don't really care if he wins in November or not after knowing that. Ideally, we'd primary out every "Democratic" legislator who supported Personhood -- every single one of them is either a beyond-the-pale extremist conservative, or will say anything while flailing to get votes. Personhood is the absolute craziest, most vile, off-the-deep-end right-wing idea that's been somewhat mainstream this century.

So, you agree to give up Wilemon's, Jolly's and similar seats in Senate, Bain's, Steverson's, Sullivan's and similar seats in House, and so on? And remain with Deborah Dawkins ONLY? How many seats would you have in Legislaure??? I think Chris McDaniel would send big "Thank you!" note in such case...

[gespb19]

^ AFAIK - some Southern blacks are socially conservative (especially - from rural areas), so Personhood may be popular among them. Usually their ltypical left-of-center position on economy trumps that, but - nevertheless... And yes, Powell's surprise election was before Obama's election, which, IMHO, served (and continue to serve) as a very polarizing feature in many minds since 2008. We shall see.

True but blacks shot down Personhood by a large margin. In precincts that are almost 100% African American, Personhood only won about 15-20% of the vote. Harder to determine what % of whites voted for it as there was a clear urban-rural divide. There is a huge difference between a white precinct in Eastabuchie (if any of you can name which county this town is in, major props ) and a white precinct in Jackson.

[smoltchanov]

^ AFAIK - some Southern blacks are socially conservative (especially - from rural areas), so Personhood may be popular among them. Usually their ltypical left-of-center position on economy trumps that, but - nevertheless... And yes, Powell's surprise election was before Obama's election, which, IMHO, served (and continue to serve) as a very polarizing feature in many minds since 2008. We shall see.

True but blacks shot down Personhood by a large margin. In precincts that are almost 100% African American, Personhood only won about 15-20% of the vote. Harder to determine what % of whites voted for it as there was a clear urban-rural divide. There is a huge difference between a white precinct in Eastabuchie (if any of you can name which county this town is in, major props ) and a white precinct in Jackson.

Jones. I will not pretend that i knew it absolutely for sure, but Jones was of 3 counties that came to my mind..

Agree with everything else. But we speak about winning elections, don't we? To get a majority it's not enough to win black-majority districts only. You need white-majority districts too. And many of them were more supportive of Personhood and other social conservative issues. To win them you need to run relatively conservative Democratic candidates (who almost always will be still somewhat more liberal then Republican ones). I don't advocate running conservative Democrats in liberal districts))). And yes - i know that there are socially moderate (or even liberal) white-majority districts in Mississippi, but you probably agree - not too much of them.. So, conservative Democrats are absolutely needed for getting majority, at least - now. May be - demographic changes will make them unnecessary by 2045, but - not now))))

[gespb19]

Jones. I will not pretend that i knew it absolutely for sure, but Jones was of 3 counties that came to my mind..

Correct. Well done.

[gespb19]

Hinds County precinct map of the Dem primary. Not the greatest quality, but this was one of the 2 counties where Slater won. I may do a NE Mississippi and Delta map when those results are released. Blue = Slater, Red = Gray, Gray (the color, not the last name) = tie.

[7,052,770]

Our SOS website is useless.

The "official" primary results are up here: http://www.sos.ms.gov/Elections-Voting/Pages/Results-2015.aspx

Except the Republican PDF file is missing several counties. And the Democratic PDF file is an awful, unreadable xerox copy (I know that's how it usually is, but this one takes the cake.)

[136or142]

Our SOS website is useless.

The "official" primary results are up here: http://www.sos.ms.gov/Elections-Voting/Pages/Results-2015.aspx

Except the Republican PDF file is missing several counties. And the Democratic PDF file is an awful, unreadable xerox copy (I know that's how it usually is, but this one takes the cake.)

As I've compiled the aggregate congressional results several times, I can tell you that a few states are worse than Mississppi.  The problem for you is that though the page says it has the 'official' results, the real post you have to wait for is the one that says 'certified.'  That post is handy and easy to read.

[gespb19]

Our site is better than Alabama, but that ain't saying much because their site is putrid. And like Harry said, quite a few county precinct reports are missing. Looks like at least 12 counties aren't listed, I noticed Forrest, Oktibbeha, Lauderdale and Hinds were absent right off the bat. I expect those to show up eventually, but usually there are 1-2 county precinct sheets missing from each election cycle (I've always wanted to see 2008 Democratic primary results from Forrest County, but the SOS site doesn't seem to have it )

[136or142]

Our site is better than Alabama, but that ain't saying much because their site is putrid. And like Harry said, quite a few county precinct reports are missing. Looks like at least 12 counties aren't listed, I noticed Forrest, Oktibbeha, Lauderdale and Hinds were absent right off the bat. I expect those to show up eventually, but usually there are 1-2 county precinct sheets missing from each election cycle (I've always wanted to see 2008 Democratic primary results from Forrest County, but the SOS site doesn't seem to have it )

Have you checked the certified results?