Mississippi 2015 Megathread
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gespb19
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« Reply #375 on: August 25, 2015, 08:53:27 PM »

Begley/Sykes tightened up quickly. Wonder what precincts are out, the Fondren and Belhaven boxes should go heavy for Begley.
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« Reply #376 on: August 25, 2015, 09:32:57 PM »

Some more calls:

Walker defeats Lacy 54-46 in State House 24 with 96% in!
Gibbs defeats Davidson 57-43 in State House 36 with 100% in!
Barnett defeats Chinn 63-37 in State Senate 34 with 100% in!
Seymour defeats Tyson 56-44 in State Senate 47 with 91% in!

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« Reply #377 on: August 25, 2015, 09:33:49 PM »

Brooks is only trailing by 6 now in State Senate 38, but 87% of the vote is already in, may be too little, too late.

Branning leading only 54-46 in State Senate 18 with 57% in.
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« Reply #378 on: August 25, 2015, 09:38:17 PM »

Johnson defeats Davis 60-40 in State House 87 with 88% in!
Hale defeats Goudy by 13 votes in State House 24!

Not yet called:

State House 30
State House 42
State House 46
State House 70
State Senate 18
State Senate 38

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gespb19
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« Reply #379 on: August 25, 2015, 09:41:55 PM »

Looking like Sykes is going to beat Begley. Bummer.

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« Reply #380 on: August 25, 2015, 09:46:44 PM »

Mickens wins State House 42 by 18 votes!
Branning wins State Senate 18 62-38 with 100% in!

Four uncalled races still, winners look obvious though except for maybe State Senate 38.
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« Reply #381 on: August 25, 2015, 09:56:44 PM »

All votes are in for State House 70, Sykes wins 54-46.

Still waiting on State House 30, 46 and State Senate 38.
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« Reply #382 on: August 25, 2015, 10:02:33 PM »

State House 30 is all in. This one tightened up fast - Huddleston lead 57-43 at 78% in but leads only 51-49 in the final count.
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« Reply #383 on: August 25, 2015, 10:08:09 PM »

Oliver wins State House 46 60-40
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« Reply #384 on: August 25, 2015, 10:32:52 PM »

State Senate 38 is finally all in, Witherspoon wins 54-46!

That wraps it up for tonight's runoffs.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #385 on: August 26, 2015, 12:06:13 AM »

Looking like Sykes is going to beat Begley. Bummer.

Majority black district? If so - not surprising...
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gespb19
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« Reply #386 on: August 26, 2015, 08:05:13 AM »

Looking like Sykes is going to beat Begley. Bummer.

Majority black district? If so - not surprising...

Yeah, I think its like 70% black. But it does include some of the liberal white Jackson precincts.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #387 on: August 26, 2015, 08:29:12 AM »
« Edited: August 26, 2015, 09:06:33 AM by smoltchanov »

Looking like Sykes is going to beat Begley. Bummer.

Majority black district? If so - not surprising...

Yeah, I think its like 70% black. But it does include some of the liberal white Jackson precincts.

Too high black percentage))) Would district be 58-60% Black - it would be possible for reasonable white candidate to win..
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gespb19
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« Reply #388 on: August 27, 2015, 02:40:58 PM »
« Edited: August 27, 2015, 02:48:35 PM by gespb19 »

Yep. Although I think Begley is pretty liberal for a MS white. But always going to be tough for any white guy to win in this type of district.

The GOP has actually fielded a decent candidate here for the general. Pete Perry, Hinds County GOP chairman.
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« Reply #389 on: September 04, 2015, 12:06:28 AM »

There are a several articles of Robert Gray on the internet.  He is African American and he's 46.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #390 on: September 04, 2015, 12:15:43 AM »

There are a several articles of Robert Gray on the internet.  He is African American and he's 46.

At least some info. Well, in such case he will get decent black vote and almost none - white (what became a typical pattern in Mississippi)
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« Reply #391 on: September 04, 2015, 12:31:59 AM »

There are a several articles of Robert Gray on the internet.  He is African American and he's 46.

At least some info. Well, in such case he will get decent black vote and almost none - white (what became a typical pattern in Mississippi)

http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2015/aug/12/keep-truckin-meet-robert-gray/
http://msbusiness.com/2015/08/david-dallas-mississippi-goes-cray-cray-for-gray/
http://www.overdriveonline.com/owner-operator-robert-gray-wins-democratic-primary-vote-for-mississippi-governor/

Most recent brief interview:
http://www.wapt.com/news/mississippi/robert-gray-running-for-governor/34981892

There are other articles, but they probably don't add anything additional.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #392 on: September 04, 2015, 02:42:07 AM »

There are a several articles of Robert Gray on the internet.  He is African American and he's 46.

At least some info. Well, in such case he will get decent black vote and almost none - white (what became a typical pattern in Mississippi)

http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2015/aug/12/keep-truckin-meet-robert-gray/
http://msbusiness.com/2015/08/david-dallas-mississippi-goes-cray-cray-for-gray/
http://www.overdriveonline.com/owner-operator-robert-gray-wins-democratic-primary-vote-for-mississippi-governor/

Most recent brief interview:
http://www.wapt.com/news/mississippi/robert-gray-running-for-governor/34981892

There are other articles, but they probably don't add anything additional.

Thanks!
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gespb19
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« Reply #393 on: September 06, 2015, 01:14:03 PM »

Off topic, but congrats to the 2 MSU fans in this thread on the win last night. My guys were able to keep it interesting for a little while but ultimately the talent gap was too large. Good luck against LSU.
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gespb19
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« Reply #394 on: September 09, 2015, 01:55:26 PM »

http://kingfish1935.blogspot.com/2015/09/hurst-challenges-hood-to-three-debates.html?m=1
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #395 on: September 09, 2015, 02:16:33 PM »


Just to hear your perspective Gesp, how do you rate the AG's race?  I think its quite competitive, but I think Hood holds a narrow advantage thanks to name recognition and his relative popularity in the Northeastern corner of the state.

Off topic, but congrats to the 2 MSU fans in this thread on the win last night. My guys were able to keep it interesting for a little while but ultimately the talent gap was too large. Good luck against LSU.

Thank you, and HAIL STATE Smiley
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gespb19
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« Reply #396 on: September 09, 2015, 02:36:26 PM »

Yeah, I think the AG race is in play but Hood should still win. I look for Hurst to win all the counties that Simpson won in '11 (DeSoto, Rankin, Lamar, Hancock, Pearl River). I could see Harrison, Jones, Jackson, and Madison flipping to Hurst and maybe a few random rural counties.

I will say that I am considering voting for Hurst. Mainly because I think Hood is a shill for the MPAA, his dispute with Google makes no sense to me.
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gespb19
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« Reply #397 on: October 03, 2015, 10:36:40 PM »

Heard today from #sources that Hurst is within single digits of Hood, per an internal poll taken less than a month ago.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #398 on: October 04, 2015, 12:43:43 AM »
« Edited: October 04, 2015, 08:04:40 AM by smoltchanov »

A pessimistic article about Democratic chances in state legislative elections in Mississippi:

http://www.dailyjournal.net/view/story/9d297ba75e5140599e18d09503b6f988/MS--Race-for-the-House

Looking for gespb19 comment and general analysis of situation. How much less white vote can Democrats get? After all - in Presidential elections they ALREADY got slightly over 10% last 2 times. 5%? 2%?.....

P.S. According to this article only Childers has chances to defeat incumbent Republican (and, in general, Republican candidates have much more money at their disposal too) in House, while Republicans can hope to defeat at least some (white, of course) Democrats, and can come close to supermajority (74 seats). For comparison - now they have 67. Here, as elsewhere in Deep South, Democratic party essentially more and more becomes "Black party", and Republican - "White party". A sort of resegregation, only by political membership and ideology, not by "official" civil rights... If that tendency continues - in the next decade (before slow demographic changes will  slowly begin to move situation in opposite direction) the Deep South states can become even more Republican, than now, on legislative level. Only after 2025 we may see change... And, according to some polls, even Hood is only narrowly ahead in AG race (and there is still a month before election). Even if he narrowly prevails - he will no doubt retire in 2019, and Republican will be a favorite for this last Democratic statewide seat in Deep South. Democratic party for vast majority of Southern whites became synonimous with "Obama's party", and that became an extremely heavy burden even for moderate (or even somewhat conservative) Democratic candidates.... Of course - to the lesser extent on state legislative level, then statewide (in Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas there are still some "diehard white Democratic" districts, which continue to elect centrist (usually) or slightly conservative Democrats to legislature), but there are less and less such "untouchable" districts with every next election.
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gespb19
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« Reply #399 on: October 04, 2015, 02:13:02 PM »

10% is probably the basement, I think even a Bernie Sanders type would do better than Obama (he voted against the Brady Bill 20 years ago!). Statewide and legislative races are another story.
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