Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[smoltchanov]

Well, those who can't lose with dignity, appeal to partisanship. The last retreat of scoundrels, as one writer said..

[BigSkyBob]

Well, those who can't lose with dignity, appeal to partisanship. The last retreat of scoundrels, as one writer said..

As you can read here,


http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2015/11/30/house-committee-set-election/76558978/


that is what Tullos is accusing Eaton of doing. Specifically, Tullos is claiming that that after the ballots were counted, commissioners in Smith County held a secret meeting, and, counted nine previously rejected ballots. That is simply not the procedure typically used in such a close election. Typically, a public meeting is held in which it is decided whether, or not, to reconsider ballots. Then, if the decision is made to reexamine ballots, a date and place is set where the ballots can be reexamined in front of observers from both campaigns.

The process used reeked of partisanship. If the same commissioners were keen on Tullos winning, they would not have reconsidered any ballots. If that isn't a legitimate basis for an election challenge, what is the point of having election challenges? The election was so close that only one documented error could change the outcome, and, the process used in the revised initial count was highly irregular, and seemly partisan.

I would note the article explicitly notes,

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Note, that Tullos never agreed to abide by the drawing of straws, and, that he had filed a challenge before the drawing. Your "moral argument" was underpinned by assumptions that simply had no factual basis.

[gespb19]

Sojourner appealing to Senate....

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2015/12/03/sojourner-challenge-senate/76737346/

Holy f**k, Bob Dearing won that race? I stopped following it on election night with two precincts left and had assumed they both went for Sojourner.

Anyway, how do y'all expect these results challenges (Eaton/Tullos & Dearing/Sojourner) to go?

Expect Tullos to win, Sojourner probably won't win her appeal though. She's not thought well of by Democrats or establishment Republicans.

[Tender Branson]

MS results now official and certified:

476.697 votes (66.38%) - Phil Bryant (R)
231.643 votes (32.25%) - Robert Gray (D)
    9.845 votes (  1.37%) - Shawn O'Hara (Reform)
___________________

718.185 votes (turnout: ~32%)

[ElectionsGuy]

Congressional District data for this race would be fascinating. For MS-02, I'm guessing 54-45 Gray, and all the others over 70% for Bryant. Turnout differences between whites and blacks are critical. For the first time in a while (or maybe ever), I think the white vote was more Republican than the black vote was Democratic.

[Miles]

^ I don't see individual precinct results, but if you give all of Hinds to CD2 and Madison to CD3 (and ignore the few other very minor splits), Bryant actually sweeps all 4:

CD1: 130,443 (72.8%), 46,668 (26.0%), 2,085 (1.2%)
CD2: 88,784 (49.5%), 88,111 (49.1%), 2,469 (1.4%)
CD3: 140,039 (68.5%), 61,988 (30.3%), 2,444 (1.2%)
CD4: 117,431 (75.7%), 34,876 (22.5%), 2,847 (1.8%)

Bryant probably loses CD2 with the splits factored in, though - CD3 has white Hinds precincts and CD2 has mostly nonwhite precincts in Madison.

[ElectionsGuy]

^ I don't see individual precinct results, but if you give all of Hinds to CD2 and Madison to CD3 (and ignore the few other very minor splits), Bryant actually sweeps all 4:

CD1: 130,443 (72.8%), 46,668 (26.0%), 2,085 (1.2%)
CD2: 88,784 (49.5%), 88,111 (49.1%), 2,469 (1.4%)
CD3: 140,039 (68.5%), 61,988 (30.3%), 2,444 (1.2%)
CD4: 117,431 (75.7%), 34,876 (22.5%), 2,847 (1.8%)

Bryant probably loses CD2 with the splits factored in, though - CD3 has white Hinds precincts and CD2 has mostly nonwhite precincts in Madison.

Damn that's incredible. It looks to me (by county data) that although black turnout was worse, it wasn't by much. Turnout was terrible across the board, so it looks Bryant may have won a decent percentage of blacks. I tried working out a hypothetical scenario of racial breakdown here:

White (63%): 91% R, 7% D
Black (34%): 76% D, 23% R
Other (3%): 56% D, 42% R

This works out to a roughly 66-32 margin. Realistic? ish?

[gespb19]

Bryant won around 10-15% in precincts where Obama 99%+ in 2012.

[Bacon King]

SMOLTY... again what is up with all the parentheses?)))))

It's a Russian thing - ag does it sometimes too

[gespb19]

Rickey Cole stepping down. Hallejulah!

[gespb19]

I'm hearing from #sources that Eaton will switch parties if the House seats him.

[smoltchanov]

I'm hearing from #sources that Eaton will switch parties if the House seats him.

Interesting. He is at least somewhat conservative-leaning, so - theoretically feasible...

[/]

I'm hearing from #sources that Eaton will switch parties if the House seats him.

but we tried so hard...

Anyway, Bob Dearing has been confirmed as the winner of his election.

[Ebsy]

I'm hearing from #sources that Eaton will switch parties if the House seats him.

but we tried so hard...

Anyway, Bob Dearing has been confirmed as the winner of his election.

Wooo!

[gespb19]

Will Longwitz appointed as Madison County County Court judge. SD25 now vacant. Expect quite a few people to run for this open seat. Old money district that takes in NE Jackson and southern Madison County.

[smoltchanov]

Will Longwitz appointed as Madison County County Court judge. SD25 now vacant. Expect quite a few people to run for this open seat. Old money district that takes in NE Jackson and southern Madison County.

All action - on Republican side, if i undestand correctly?....

[gespb19]

Will Longwitz appointed as Madison County County Court judge. SD25 now vacant. Expect quite a few people to run for this open seat. Old money district that takes in NE Jackson and southern Madison County.

All action - on Republican side, if i undestand correctly?....

Yes. Would be surprised if a Dem runs.

[BigSkyBob]

Tullos wins.

http://wjtv.com/2016/01/20/panel-seat-gops-tullos-in-disputed-mississippi-house-race/

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tullos wins.

http://wjtv.com/2016/01/20/panel-seat-gops-tullos-in-disputed-mississippi-house-race/

This is just a committee. It still needs a vote by the full house to become official.

[smoltchanov]

Tullos wins.

http://wjtv.com/2016/01/20/panel-seat-gops-tullos-in-disputed-mississippi-house-race/

This is just a committee. It still needs a vote by the full house to become official.

Expected. 2 seated Democrats would clearly be "too much" for Republican-dominated legislature...

[BigSkyBob]

Tullos wins.

http://wjtv.com/2016/01/20/panel-seat-gops-tullos-in-disputed-mississippi-house-race/

This is just a committee. It still needs a vote by the full house to become official.

It was official:

http://www.wapt.com/news/mississippi/miss-house-declares-gop-challenger-winner-of-contested-race/37548010

[Frodo]

Tullos wins.

http://wjtv.com/2016/01/20/panel-seat-gops-tullos-in-disputed-mississippi-house-race/

This is just a committee. It still needs a vote by the full house to become official.

It was official:

http://www.wapt.com/news/mississippi/miss-house-declares-gop-challenger-winner-of-contested-race/37548010

So the House is now officially 74R:48D, correct? 

[BigSkyBob]

Tullos wins.

http://wjtv.com/2016/01/20/panel-seat-gops-tullos-in-disputed-mississippi-house-race/

This is just a committee. It still needs a vote by the full house to become official.

Expected. 2 seated Democrats would clearly be "too much" for Republican-dominated legislature...

Tullos had a legitimate concern, and, it was validated. In the Senate, the Democrat was declared the winner. If "partisanship" was the driving factor, why didn't the Republicans take both seats?

[smoltchanov]

Tullos wins.

http://wjtv.com/2016/01/20/panel-seat-gops-tullos-in-disputed-mississippi-house-race/

This is just a committee. It still needs a vote by the full house to become official.

Expected. 2 seated Democrats would clearly be "too much" for Republican-dominated legislature...

Tullos had a legitimate concern, and, it was validated. In the Senate, the Democrat was declared the winner. If "partisanship" was the driving factor, why didn't the Republicans take both seats?

Simply"saved their face" - to seat both would be too naughty. Seating only one made them look objective. In addition - an idiot Sojourner was heavily disliked by many Republicans too....

[BigSkyBob]

Tullos wins.

http://wjtv.com/2016/01/20/panel-seat-gops-tullos-in-disputed-mississippi-house-race/

This is just a committee. It still needs a vote by the full house to become official.

Expected. 2 seated Democrats would clearly be "too much" for Republican-dominated legislature...

Tullos had a legitimate concern, and, it was validated. In the Senate, the Democrat was declared the winner. If "partisanship" was the driving factor, why didn't the Republicans take both seats?

Simply"saved their face" - to seat both would be too naughty. Seating only one made them look objective. In addition - an idiot Sojourner was heavily disliked by many Republicans too....

Did it ever occur to you that Sojourner lost because her case was not persuasive, while Tullos' case was?