Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[ElectionsGuy]

He'll probably win re-election, but I never knew why is he popular enough to get elected. Is he a clone of Gene Taylor or something?

[ElectionsGuy]

I find it fascinating across all southern states that the Republican strength first came from urban and suburban areas. They were the first ones to actually call themselves Republicans, but over time rural whites are slowly shedding traces of Democratic voting and Democratic identification.

[ElectionsGuy]

I totally forgot this thing was today.

[ElectionsGuy]

Can the GOP take the Northern Public Service Commission District in November? Or it the Democratic incumbent popular and electable to Northeastern Mississippi?

[ElectionsGuy]

It looks like he's actually going to get above 50%. HA!

[ElectionsGuy]

Interesting results, didn't expect Gray to do that well. Wasn't Slater favored?

Yeah but the Mississippi dems were never going to win this race anyways

Sure.  Do I have to change my prediction to R>60% if Gray wins? I'm still undecided on that.

Its going to be R>60% even if Gray doesn't win.

[ElectionsGuy]

Look forward to the debate!

Can the GOP take the Northern Public Service Commission District in November? Or it the Democratic incumbent popular and electable to Northeastern Mississippi?

Yes, he's actually Elvis' 2nd cousin.

Wow, that's awesome.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm loving analyzing the difference between # of R primary votes and # of D primary votes for Governor. The craziest:

Quitman County
D - 2,295
R - 0

Wilkinson County
D - 3,019
R - 20

Tunica County
D - 1,881
R - 24

Coahoma County
D - 4,251
R - 43

Tallahatchie County
D - 4,200
R - 43

Likely a result of all the down ballot action being on the Dem side, so even registered Republicans vote in the Dem primary.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hood will lose by almost 10 points. All the other offices will go heavily, heavily Republican.

lol

AG: Likely D
Everything Else: Safe R

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't understand that ballot measure at all. Its so vague and the corresponding measure just makes it ridiculous.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm skeptical of Hood losing, but I can definitely see it happening after Kentucky. That's the only way this could get worse for Democrats.

[ElectionsGuy]

Seriously?

[ElectionsGuy]

Another precinct reports in Simpson County

Hood leads 77-23

Gray leads 61-36


Hood only over performing Gray by 16...

RIP Hood

As long as blacks are at least 30% of the electorate, Hood should win even with that.

[ElectionsGuy]

County map sources?

[ElectionsGuy]

Hood looks like he'll do fine, 61-39 while Governor race is 65-33

[ElectionsGuy]

Bryant really running up the margin against Gray. Damn. Looks like Hood is running 24 points ahead (!), he's secure.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is a slaughter. Wow.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is a slaughter. Wow.

How so?

We knew the Democrats were going to lose badly statewide.

Yeah, but 68-31? Black people are 37% of the state population. To have any less than 35% of the vote as a Democrat is just an absolute failure.

[ElectionsGuy]

Congressional District data for this race would be fascinating. For MS-02, I'm guessing 54-45 Gray, and all the others over 70% for Bryant. Turnout differences between whites and blacks are critical. For the first time in a while (or maybe ever), I think the white vote was more Republican than the black vote was Democratic.

[ElectionsGuy]

^ I don't see individual precinct results, but if you give all of Hinds to CD2 and Madison to CD3 (and ignore the few other very minor splits), Bryant actually sweeps all 4:

CD1: 130,443 (72.8%), 46,668 (26.0%), 2,085 (1.2%)
CD2: 88,784 (49.5%), 88,111 (49.1%), 2,469 (1.4%)
CD3: 140,039 (68.5%), 61,988 (30.3%), 2,444 (1.2%)
CD4: 117,431 (75.7%), 34,876 (22.5%), 2,847 (1.8%)

Bryant probably loses CD2 with the splits factored in, though - CD3 has white Hinds precincts and CD2 has mostly nonwhite precincts in Madison.

Damn that's incredible. It looks to me (by county data) that although black turnout was worse, it wasn't by much. Turnout was terrible across the board, so it looks Bryant may have won a decent percentage of blacks. I tried working out a hypothetical scenario of racial breakdown here:

White (63%): 91% R, 7% D
Black (34%): 76% D, 23% R
Other (3%): 56% D, 42% R

This works out to a roughly 66-32 margin. Realistic? ish?