Mississippi 2015 Megathread

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He'll probably win re-election, but I never knew why is he popular enough to get elected. Is he a clone of Gene Taylor or something?

Hood is a little left of Taylor, but he is against abortion and gun control, which gives him enough of the white evangelical vote to win fairly comfortably. Would think he wins easily again in November.

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Correct me If I'm wrong, but he's successful because MS doesn't list R and D on the ballot, right?

The political party of the candidate is listed on the ballot.

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He'll probably win re-election, but I never knew why is he popular enough to get elected. Is he a clone of Gene Taylor or something?

Hood is a little left of Taylor, but he is against abortion and gun control, which gives him enough of the white evangelical vote to win fairly comfortably. Would think he wins easily again in November.

If that's all it takes to win white Evangelicals in MS, why does Childers do so poorly?

Childers has very little name recognition outside of the northeast part of the state. And he ran against Cochran, who has tons of experience in Washington and is well liked by most in MS and gets a good amount of support from moderates and even some liberals.

But yeah, Childers did worse than I thought he'd do. I didn't expect a win from him, but figured he'd get around 45% of the vote.

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^ Still, I think he's slated to win.

I mean, yeah. But Bryant has pissed off a lot of people because of his complete opposition to funding public education in the state, and really doesn't seem too concerned about the issue at all. You may see some people who usually vote Republican, vote for Slater because of Bryant's stance on education funding.

That being said, Bryant still wins with around 57-58% of the vote.

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The article linked below is 2 weeks old, but it has some interesting info on the upcoming MS House races in 2015.

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/politicalledger/2015/05/07/moak-house-elections/70948922/

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I guess MS Blue Dogs are mostly in Northern Mississippi?

This is correct. In the northeast part of the state, there's about 6-7 blue dogs still in the house.

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I feel somewhat confident in saying that McRae/Fitch will split Jackson Metro. I guess Fitch will probably get most of the Delta vote. Other than that, I have no idea what will happen in that primary.

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Looking at the list of candidates on the SOS site, here are the GOP incumbents that are receiving primary challenges. Names in bold are incumbents.

House

Eugene Hamilton/Dana Criwell (District 6, DeSoto)
Wanda Jennings/Steve Hopkins (District 7, DeSoto)
Randy Boyd/Peggy Schumpert Hussey(District 19, Itawamba)
Gene Alday/Julian Chandler Bramlett/Melissa Conn/Dan Eubanks (District 25, DeSoto)
Joey Hood/Brian Sims (District 35, Winston/Neshoba)
Pat Nelson/Ashley Henson (District 40, DeSoto)
John Moore/Paul Buisson (District 60, Rankin)
Ray Rogers/Randall Stephens (District 61, Rankin)
Tom Weathersby/Wesley Wilson (District 62, Rankin)
Gary Staples/Christopher Hodge/Mitchell Pitts (District 88, Jones)
Ken Morgan/Harry Griffith (District 100, Marion)
Toby Barker/Ric McCluskey (District 102, Forrest)
Jeff Guice/Barney O’Neal (District 114, Harrison)
Greg Haney/John McCay III (District 118, Harrison)
Carolyn Crawford/Jeff Wallace (District 121, Harrison)

Senate

Chris Massey/James Eubanks (District 1, DeSoto)
Nancy Collins/Mike Armour/Chris McMahan (District 6, Lee/Itawamba)
Charles Younger/Bobby Patrick Jr. (District 17, Lowndes/Monroe)
Briggs Hopson/Bill Marcy (District 23, Warren/Issaquena/Yazoo)
Will Longwitz/William Billingsley (District 25, Madison/Hinds)
Melanie Sojourner/Curtis Moroney/Lane Reed (District 37, Adams/Franklin/Pike/Amite)
Sally Doty/Mike Campbell (District 39, Lincoln/Lawrence/Walthall/Copiah)
Phillip Gandy/Dennis DeBar (District 43, George/Greene/Wayne)
Sean Tindell/Katherine DeCoito (District 49, Harrison)
Michael Watson/Butch Loper (District 51, Jackson)

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Looking at the list of candidates on the SOS site, here are the GOP incumbents that are receiving primary challenges. Names in bold are incumbents.

House

Eugene Hamilton/Dana Criwell (District 6, DeSoto)
Wanda Jennings/Steve Hopkins (District 7, DeSoto)
Randy Boyd/Peggy Schumpert Hussey(District 19, Itawamba)
Gene Alday/Julian Chandler Bramlett/Melissa Conn/Dan Eubanks (District 25, DeSoto)
Joey Hood/Brian Sims (District 35, Winston/Neshoba)
Pat Nelson/Ashley Henson (District 40, DeSoto)
John Moore/Paul Buisson (District 60, Rankin)
Ray Rogers/Randall Stephens (District 61, Rankin)
Tom Weathersby/Wesley Wilson (District 62, Rankin)
Gary Staples/Christopher Hodge/Mitchell Pitts (District 88, Jones)
Ken Morgan/Harry Griffith (District 100, Marion)
Toby Barker/Ric McCluskey (District 102, Forrest)
Jeff Guice/Barney O’Neal (District 114, Harrison)
Greg Haney/John McCay III (District 118, Harrison)
Carolyn Crawford/Jeff Wallace (District 121, Harrison)

Senate

Chris Massey/James Eubanks (District 1, DeSoto)
Nancy Collins/Mike Armour/Chris McMahan (District 6, Lee/Itawamba)
Charles Younger/Bobby Patrick Jr. (District 17, Lowndes/Monroe)
Briggs Hopson/Bill Marcy (District 23, Warren/Issaquena/Yazoo)
Will Longwitz/William Billingsley (District 25, Madison/Hinds)
Melanie Sojourner/Curtis Moroney/Lane Reed (District 37, Adams/Franklin/Pike/Amite)
Sally Doty/Mike Campbell (District 39, Lincoln/Lawrence/Walthall/Copiah)
Phillip Gandy/Dennis DeBar (District 43, George/Greene/Wayne)
Sean Tindell/Katherine DeCoito (District 49, Harrison)
Michael Watson/Butch Loper (District 51, Jackson)

Good and thanks! But ideological differences (even if subtle) are important here. Watson and Sojourner were among staunchest McDaniel supporters for example, but in most cases i don't have an info.

P.S. Corresponding list for Democrats would also be helpful (i think - it's substantially shorter)

I don't know about a lot of these candidates (especially those in the north half of the state) but most of the incumbents listed are establishment types, aside from Watson/Sojourner (like you mentioned). Pretty sure Gandy and Massey were McDaniel supporters too.

Out of the house incumbents, most of the names listed have no McDaniel ties except for Staples (he and McDaniel are both from Jones County). McCluskey is the challenger in District 102 (my district), and he was part of the McDaniel campaign last summer, but probably doesn't have much of a shot against Barker. Barker is conservative on fiscal issues, but is pretty moderate on social issues. He was the only Republican to vote no on the Religious Freedom Bill from last year and he wrote an amendment to the 20 week abortion ban in 2014 that would make exceptions for rape and incest (which was shot down by the legislature).

I'll post a list of Democrat incumbents that are being challenged in a little while.

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Democrat incumbents that are being challenged. Bolded names are incumbents.

House

John Faulkner/Jacqueline Simon (District 5, Marshall/Benton)
Lataisha Jackson/Michael Cathey (District 11, Panola/Tate)
Sara Thomas/Charles Modley (District 31, Indianola/Washington)
Kevin Horan/Reta Holden (District 34, Grenada/Leflore/Holmes)
Karl Gibbs/Edward Houston/Jimmy Davidson (District 36, Clay/Monroe)
Esther Harrison/Kabir Karriem (District 41, Lowndes)
Reecy Dickson/Carl Mickens/Eugene Crosby (District 42, Noxubee/Lowndes/Winston)
Michael Evans/Clark Adams (District 45, Kemper/Lauderdale/Neshoba/Winston)
Oscar Denton/Chris Green/Arrick Rice (District 55, Warren)
Deborah Dixon/Machelle Kyles (District 63, Hinds/Warren/Yazoo)
Credell Calhoun/Kenneth Shearrill (District 68, Hinds)
Alyce Clarke/Patty Patterson (District 69, Hinds)
Kimberly Campbell/Corinthian Sanders (District 72, Hinds/Madison)
Chuck Middleton/Maurice Hudson/Allen Burks (District 85, Jefferson/Claiborne/Warren/Franklin)
David Myers/Tasha Dillon (District 98, Pike/Walthall)
Jeramey Anderson/Mitch Ellerby (District 110, Jackson)

Senate

Steve Hale/Bill Stone (District 10, Tate/Marshall)
Robert Jackson/Jimmy Edwards/Clara Dawkins-Davis (District 11, Coahoma/Quitman/Tunica/Panola)
Kenny Wayne Jones/Barbara Blackmon (District 21, Madison/Leake/Attala/Holmes)
John Horhn/Stephen Thompson (District 26, Hinds/Madison)
David Blount/Eclecius Franklin (District 29, Hinds)
Sampson Jackson/Keith Jackson (District 32, Kemper/Noxubee/Lauderdale/Winston)
Albert Butler/Elvis Colenburg/Jeffrey Harness (District 36, Hinds/Copiah/Claiborne)
Deborah Dawkins/Joseph Piernas (District 48, Harrison)

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Though Stone is incumbent too AFAIK....))

Yes, you are right. His district changed due to redistricting so he's running in district 10 now. Correction made.

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Dawkins' district is only 34% Black VAP (see link below), and has Pass Christian and the east part of Gulfport. Both areas generally vote Republican, so I'd guess she is a likable person who can get people to support her despite her ideology. I'm not too familiar with her, but I know she's been in the senate for over 15 years now. Looking at the SOS site, her wins haven't been by huge margins. She's being challenged again in November so this may be the year that she loses.

Also, another Dawkins-type candidate is running in District 9 in Lafayette County (Oxford and Ole Miss). Cristen Hemmins is the Democrat nominee against incumbent Gray Tollison. Tollison was a Dem until he switched parties a few days after winning re-election in 2011 (!). Hemmins is a self-described progressive (a 4 letter word in Mississippi!), and was profiled in a few articles back in '11 because of her opposition to the Personhood amendment. I'm not saying she'll win, but she'll probably be backed by a lot of the local college students and young people, which may the election somewhat tight.

(Here is the link I promised that includes the demography of MS Senate districts: http://www.maris.state.ms.us/pdf/MS2010SenateDist/TRP_FINAL_REPORT.pdf)

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Looking at the list of House candidates running, I counted...

81 uncontested races
   - 41 Republican
   - 40 Democrats

41 contested races
   - 23 Republicans being challenged (1 independent challenger)
   - 9 Democrats being challenged (1 independent challenger)
   - 9 open seats

Big races (IMO) - names with an * are incumbents

#2 - Nick Bain* (D) vs Billy Miller (R)
#3 - William Arnold* (R) vs. Dem challenger (probably Laura Childers)
#14 - Steve Massengil*  (R) vs Justin Cluck (D)
#20 - Chris Brown* (R) vs Bo Miller (D)
#21 - Donnie Bell* (R) vs Aaron Loden (D)
#43 (open) - Paul Millsaps (D) vs GOP challenger to be determined.
#53 - Bobby Moak* (D) vs Vince Mangold (R)
#79 - Bo Eaton* (D) vs GOP challenger to be determined
#86 - Sherra Lane* (D) vs Shane Barnett (R)
#90 (open) - John Pope III (D) vs Noah Sanford (R)
#105 (open) - Roun McNeal (R) vs Dennis Cochran (D)
#121 - Carolyn Crawford* (R) vs Hunter Dawkins (D)

I'll do the Senate in a little while.

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Will Republicans get seats?

A little confused by the question: are you asking if they get seats via redistricting, or will they win any seats in November?

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I think the GOP starts off with 56 seats (41 uncontested + 15 contested) with the Dems at 47 (40 contested + 7 uncontested). Last 19 seats are toss-ups.

In addition to the races posted earlier, the following will probably be close:

#1 - Lester Carpenter* (R) vs Lisa Wiggins (D)
#12 - Brad Mayo* (R) vs JP Hughes (D)
#48 - Jason Butler* (R) vs Jill White (D)
#93 - Timmy Ladner* (R) vs Billy Ladner (D)
#111 - Charles Busby* (R) vs Kay Sims (D)
#122 - David Baria* (D) vs Mickey Lagasse (R)

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Senate - 52 total seats

33 uncontested
   - 20 Republicans
   - 13 Democrats

19 contested
   - 13 Republicans being challenged
   - 6 Democrats being challenged

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I don't think it's a given that the GOP expands their majorities, though I expect them to retain control of both chambers when January 2016 rolls around.

Here's my prediction of the 20 house elections that I think will be competitive (earlier I said 18 were up for grabs, I meant to say 20. So the GOP starts off with 55 seats instead of 57 and the Dems with 47. 62 is the magic number). Names with a ^ aren't incumbents, but share the party affiliation of the retiring incumbent. Districts with a * are products of 2010 redistricting.

Spreadsheet colors are generic colors, not Atlas colors. Sorry, guys.



So based on that image, I guess my very early prediction of the House makeup is 66 GOP (55 non-competitive races + 11 competitive), 56 Dem (47 non-competitive + 9 competitive). Which means that the composition of the House remains the same as it is now.

Ok, here are my senate predictions. GOP should start off with 28 seats (20 uncontested + 8 contested) and the Dems at 18 seats (13 uncontested + 5 contested). That leaves us with 6 spots up for grabs. Incumbents on the left.



I'll say GOP grabs 4 of these seats, so that leaves us at 32 GOP, 20 Dem....which is the current composition of the senate. So, my predictions are very odd in that I think that the composition of both chambers will remain exactly the same, although some seats could flop. Still very early, and things can and will change....

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Interested to hear what my MS brethren (Harry/Del Tachi) have to say about my predictions.

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Dems can still win state legislative elections in the rural, white parts of the state mainly because the Dems have solid benches in these areas. Democrats hold almost every countywide position in the very rural areas of the state, and a lot of those Dems will run for spots in the legislature. So yes, Dems should still concentrate on the rural/white areas of the state because MS whites will still vote for Democrats on the local level and on the state legislative level.

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Guys like Tom Miles and Nick Bain are pretty conservative Democrats in the House. Wilemon is a good example in the Senate. Most of the conservative Democrats have either moved over to the Republican side or just hold office on the county level.

I've often wondered how these very conservative Dems vote on the federal level. I guess they vote for Dems in house or senate races (where the Dem nominee in MS is typically somewhat conservative) but can't imagine they vote for someone like Obama or Kerry in presidential elections. A few years ago, the insurance commissioner here (who was a Democrat) commented about how he voted George Bush in 2004. Have to think that is fairly common among other conservative Dems in the state, although some may vote for the Democrat nominee.

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Thanks, I fixed the spreadsheet and re-posted the screenshot with corrections.

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Yeah, I could have easily put Sojourner's district in the tilt D category. Maybe I should have done that.

The predictions I came up with for each race aren't scientific or anything overly complicated, I just did a little research on the key races/candidates and tried to make a guess/prediction. This will probably change once November rolls around, or if there are any primary upsets.

Brief rundown on how I came to the predictions that I posted earlier.

House

#1 (leans R) - 2 term GOP incumbent in a very white district (but has a history of supporting conservative Dems). Democrat challenger is the daughter of the guy who used to represent this district in the 90s.

#2 (leans D) - Dem incumbent Bain narrowly won here in '11, but he doesn't have strong GOP opposition this time around. Still maybe the Reps can pull off an upset if this is another wave election for GOP.

#3 (toss up/tilt D) - GOP incumbent Arnold won by just over 400 votes in '11 and represents a district that is generally receptive to conservative Dems. Lauren Childers (Travis' daughter) is the Dem challenger and will have a decent shot at taking back this seat for the Democrats.

#12 (lean R) - Brad Mayo (R) is the incumbent but Democrats have JP Hughes (Oxford alderman) running so this seat should be competitive. Leans R right now, but can't rule out a Hughes win.

#13 (toss-up/tilt R) - Massengill (R) won this seat in the 2011 wave election, but Cluck is a solid Dem challenger and this district has elected conservative Dems in the past. Probably could go either way but I'll call it for the GOP right now.

#19 (toss-up/tilt R) - GOP incumbent Randy Boyd was elected in the 2011 wave. Clint Gannon is the Dem challenger, he lost by 7 votes in a '11 election for a Lee County Justice Court Judge position. District includes rural Lee County and Itawamba County so the Dems are still strong here locally. I'll say it goes for the GOP right now, but this is another race that could be 50/50.

#21 (toss-up/tilt D) - Donnie Bell is the incumbent, he switched to the GOP a few years ago. His challenger is Aaron Loden, who is the popular tax collector in Itawamba County. Another strong Dixiecrat district + good Democrat nominee so I'll say that this race leans toward the Democrats.

#23 (leans R) - New district based in Eastern Starkville. Paul Millsaps is the Dem nominee, the GOP nominee is yet to be determined. Starkville/Oktibbeha Co. actually went Obama in the last 2 elections (state's largest university is located here), but have a hunch that the GOP pulls this one off.

#46 (toss-up/tilts D) - GOP incumbent retiring so this is an open seat. Multiple GOPers battling in primary, but Ken Strachan is unopposed for the Dems. Strachan is the coroner in Carroll County and is well-liked. GOP nominee is uncertain at this point, so I'll call it for the Democrats right now but this will be close regardless.

#48 (leans R) - Jason White (R and party switcher) is the incumbent in the Kosciusko-based district. Jill Butler has no experience in politics but is running a well-organized campaign. This race leans R although I wouldn't count out Butler.

#53 (toss-up/tilts D) - Bobby Moak is the incumbent and House Democrat leader. If the Dems take over the House, he could be speaker. Mangold is a local insurance agent, and has already been publicly endorsed by Gov. Bryant. This will be a big race, but I'll give Moak the edge for now.

#79 (leans D) - Bo Eaton is the incumbent Democrat. His challenger will probably be Gary Blakeney who lost in the GOP primary for this seat in '11. Eaton should have the advantage but maybe he'll lose if it's another GOP wave election.

#86 (toss-up/tilt D) - Sherra Lane (D) is the incumbent. She won in a fairly close election in '11 and has drawn a decent GOP challenger, who is a councilman in the district's anchor city. This is another race that could be very close, but I'll give it a tilt D rating.

#90 (toss-up/tilt R) - Longtime Dem retiring so an open seat here. Dems will nominate the fire chief of the district's anchor city but is going up against a GOP local lawyer who appears to be popular. I'll says GOP takes the seat, but I don't know much about this race.

#93 (leans R) - Timmy Ladner is the GOP incumbent, who rode the GOP wave to win 2011. His challenger is Democrat Billy Ladner (don't know if they are kin). Dems held this seat forever so maybe they take it back, but I think GOP holds here.

#105 (toss-up/tilt D) - GOP incumbent running for the senate, so an open seat. Roun McNeal will be the GOP nominee but he ran in the GOP primary for senate #43 in 2011 and did poorly. Dennis Cochran (D) is an administrator for the schools in the district's anchor city and probably has decent name recognition so I'll say this election tilts Dem.

#111 (leans R) - Incumbent Charles Busby is another GOPer that was elected in the 2011 wave. Kay Sims is the Democrat challenger, and doesn't appear to have any previous political experience. This seat had 2 very close elections in '11 and '07 so the GOP isn't locked in here but it seems to lean toward the Republicans.

#121 (leans R) - GOP incumbent Carolyn Crawford was elected in the 2011 wave and is a champion of school vouchers. Hunter Dawkins (son of Deborah Dawkins) is the Dem nominee. This seat leans R but maybe Dawkins' last name will help the Democrats' chances.

#122 (leans D) - David Baria is the Dem incumbent and is being challenged by Mickey Lagasse (R). Hancock County is strongly GOP on this federal/statewide level so Lagasse has a chance, but think Baria is back in Jackson come 2016.

Senate

#4 (toss-up/tilts R) - Parker is the GOP incumbent, who was helped by the GOP surge in 2011. Democrat challenger Powell represented this seat from 2007-2011 so this is a rematch. I'll say Parker wins a close one but Powell does have some good name recognition since he used to represent this district.

#9 (leans R) - Tollison is the GOP incumbent (party switcher) and will be challenged by self described progressive Cristen Hemmins. Hemmins is running a solid campaign and could be helped by the some of the local university students/young people but is still a slight underdog. Leans R.

#22 (toss-up/tilts D) - White Republican incumbent Buck Clarke represents a district that is about 55% black. I don't anything about his challenger but I'll say this election tilts D due to the demographics.

#37 (toss-up/tilts R) - Tea party favorite Melanie Sojourner will face Bob Dearing, who she beat in '11. Dearing represented this district for a long time and Sojourner pissed off folks when she voted no on a bill that would supply funds for construction work in Natchez (anchor city). I probably could have put this as a tilt D, but I gave Sojourner the nod because she is the incumbent.

#39 (leans R) - Sally Doty is the incumbent but could very well be primaried (she almost was in '11). She is especially vulrenable after a Memphis TV station reported that she was involved in an affair with a DeSoto County state representative. The Democrat challenger is Michael Smith who lost the Democrat primary for this seat in '11, but it was pretty close.

#48 (leans D) - Unapologetic liberal Deborah Dawkins represents this west Harrison County district. The GOP has a shot because this district is majority-white and the incumbent is quite liberal but the Republican challenger has no prior experience in politics and as a result, likely low name recognition. I'll say Dawkins wins this one.

Hope this post explains some of the reasoning behind my predictions posted earlier.

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Looking at the races again, I had House District 73 as a Dem win but forgot redistricting moved the boundaries to North Jackson/Madison County. So, Cory Wilson the Republican will take the seat without opposition. Prediction changes to 67 GOP, 55 Dems.

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Not 2015, but Mississippi related. Sure seems like Michael Watson is thinking about challenging Palazzo in MS-04 next March.

(Sorry for the Breitbart link)

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/06/11/mississippis-palazzo-under-fire-amid-obamatrade-indecisiveness/

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AFAIK - McDaniel thinks about that too. Southern Mississippi becoming a heaven for extreme right-wingers?

Watson has a better shot than McDaniel, he may not have the name recognition McD has but he is a Coast guy and would get some of the Coast vote. If it was Palazzo/McD, Palazzo would do very well on the coast since he is a local guy and McD is not. Although McD would probably take most of the "pine belt" counties.

This is very premature, but Watson would likely win his home Jackson County (140k people) and maybe an outside shot at Hancock County but would lose Harrison County (187k people). Those are the 3 Gulf Coast counties. Watson would probably take most of the northern counties in the district except for the 2 Hattiesburg counties (Forrest/Lamar) because Palazzo used to live in the area and is a graduate of the local university.

My predicted map of a hypothetical race. Watson - Red, Palazzo - Blue