Mississippi 2015 Megathread

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http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2014/05/14/personhood-ballot-deadline/9100271/

It's official: Personhood will NOT be on the ballot again in 2015. Too bad -- I was looking forward to another right-wing meltdown...

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The Republicans just don't have a very good bench of lawyers who would make good candidates for AG. Every 4 years, they're sure they've finally found the guy who can win, and he flops.

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The filing deadline has passed.

Democratic statewide candidates:
Governor - Vicki Slater
Governor - Robert Gray
Governor - Valerie Adream Smartt Short
Lt. Gov. - Tim Johnson
Lt. Gov. - Jelanie Barr
Attorney General - Jim Hood
Sec. of State - Charles Graham
Auditor - Joce Pritchett
Ag. Comm - Addie Lee Green
Nobody for Treasurer or Insurance Commissioner


Republican statewide candidates:
Governor - Phil Bryant
Governor - Mitch Young
Lt. Gov. - Tate Reeves
Lt. Gov. - Alison McElhenney
Attorney General - Mike Hurst
Sec. of State - Delbert Hosemann
Auditor - Stacey Pickering
Auditor - Mary Hawkins Butler
Ag. Comm - Cindy Hyde-Smith
Treasurer - Lynn Fitch
Treasurer - David McRae
Insurance Comm. - Mike Chaney
Insurance Comm. - John Mosley


Sticking with my prediction of 8 reelections. Republican auditor primary should be interesting.

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I'm a lot more interested to see what happens in the Auditor primary than the Treasurer primary, myself.

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I'm a lot more interested to see what happens in the Auditor primary than the Treasurer primary, myself.

Pickering is good as gold.  I think he wins that one easily.   

Mary Hawkins is way too shrewd to file to bother running if she's gonna get creamed. At least, she's always seemed to be.

She might be the only Republican in the state I'd vote for for governor if she ever runs for that -- she's just THAT competent.

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Interested to hear what my MS brethren (Harry/Del Tachi) have to say about my predictions.

I'd say your specific knowledge on these races far exceeds mine. I'll be pretty disappointed if we don't knock out Sojourner though. She was already major low-hanging fruit, and the Democratic candidate is the same guy who used to represent the district for several terms and only barely lost to her in 2011.

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Is it Jolly (D) who represents a district that went over 60% Romney? Or Wilemon (D)?

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Result would be the same, just a closer margin this time around.

I disagree. So much has changed since the last time we voted. The Confederate flag was "normal" then. It isn't now. Especially with a lot of Republican pols endorsing a change, I think Mississippi voters will remove it if we get the chance.

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My understanding (and correct me if I'm wrong) is that Hood is technically right, it's just that no one would ever actually win a challenge on those grounds.

I mean, it's really important that we reelect him this November over a Bryant drone, but he better not let this drag out more than a few days.

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I don't think there is any possibility of a state senate race hinging on a primary. Virtually every tight primary on either side has no opposition from the other party.

A couple interesting Democratic primaries include Kenny Wayne Jones, chairman of the Black Caucus, being challenged in the Democratic primary by former legislator and 2003 lt. gov. nominee Barbara Blackmon, and the Bill Stone-Steve Hale battle after the two were redistricted into the same seat.

I really don't know how to predict either race.

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Who do you guys think will be the Democratic nominee for governor this year?

Vicki Slater. She'll get blown out in the general though.

Think Bryant will get >60% ?

No.  Slater will improve on the Democrat's 2011 performance.

I mean, it would almost be impossible to do worse than Dupree, who run an invisible campaign.

I'd bet on Bryant winning 58-42 or so.

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DT or anyone else, what do you know about John Mosley, the guy running against Chaney for Insurance Commissioner?

I'd assumed he was a Tea Party guy trying to play up the "Chaney lurves Obamacare!!!" angle, but after seeing and TV ad and his website, it looks like he's actually just running on sticking it to car insurance companies? And then the always-hilarious Yall Politics seems to think he's a closet Democrat who's buddy-buddy with Jim Hood and John Eaves?

I've been assuming I'd vote for Chaney this whole time*, but now I'm wondering...

_{*--Yes, despite saying I'd never do this just last year, I think I'm going to have to vote in the Republican primary, since that's literally the only way I get a voice in either state legislature seat, or Insurance Commissioner, or Treasurer, and because I want to vote for MHB in the Auditor race, and there's no real contested Democratic races worth voting on anyway.}

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The only thing that could get me into the GOP primary would be if I felt like I needed to "save Lynn" but I think she holds a small, yet consistent advantage over McRae.  Both the Insurance Commissioner and State Auditor races are safe for the GOP incumbents, imo.

Interesting. Have you seen polling that says so, or is it just a general feeling? I've thought the opposite, although I could easily be wrong, as I don't really have any evidence.

I've been assuming McRae will probably win because he's raised twice as much money, run TV ads, seems to have more signs around, etc. His base in Madison and the general Jackson metro area is all going to be voting Republican -- there won't be any issues with Republicans voting in the D primary because of county races like there are in lots of areas in the state, so McRae will pile up lots of votes there.

Senate District 25 (Longwitz vs. Billingsley) should have the highest turnout of any Republican primary this year. There will be people going to the primary to vote for that race, and most of them will spillover to vote for McRae too. Then, Mary Hawkins Butler is extremely popular in Madison, and will get people out to the polls just to vote for her, and I think most of them who go out to vote for her will also vote McRae while they're at it. There should be a similar effect of people coming out primarily to vote for Longwitz, Billingsley, or McRae and also voting for MHB while they're there, which is why I think she still has a shot -- everyone in Madison is going to give coattails to everyone else.

I kinda suspect that Mary Hawkins Butler might be disliked statewide too much to win, and she hasn't raised as much money as Pickering, and I haven't seen any ads on TV for her. I'm not writing her off, though -- if she loses, it will be the first time she's ever lost anything in her life, counting her races and any other Madison/Madison County race she's cared about. I just can't imagine her bothering to run unless she expected to win. Maybe she thought she would back in February but was wrong.

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I also put together this chart of the State Senate. The numbers come from the official Mississippi GIS site:

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Its worth noting that Clarke's opponent, Joseph Thomas, is a former state senator who was primaried by KWJones in 2007. Redistricting has put him in the district.

So its not just some rando, but a real politician who's won a senate race before. Who knows if he'll win, but at least the Dems are running what seems on paper like a good candidate.

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Stacey Pickering under investigation from the FBI over misuse of campaign funds?
http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2015/07/23/sources-fbi-probing-pickering-campaign-funds/30595491/

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Too little too late.  It won't stick. 

I wouldn't be so sure. Like I said, Mary always gets her way.

I've heard the main reason she's running is to put Rudy Warnock and Gene McGee in jail. She might be adding Stacey Pickering to that list too...

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My understanding is that Mayor Mary is legitimately insane. Who knows though.

She couldn't have her outstanding mayoral record if she were totally insane.

And even if she were, it wouldn't change the fact that this looks really bad for Pickering. Remember, the auditor of all people has to be even cleaner than any other office -- if a different state officer had done this, it would be Pickering's job to nail him. We'll see what the investigation produces, but from what we've seen so far, Pickering should no longer be able to serve as Auditor. He shouldn't just drop out of the race, he should resign and hire a good expensive lawyer.

Another interesting thought I've had is what if Pickering still pulls it out on August 4 and then heads to jail this fall? I know parties can replace the nominee if he/she dies, but surely they can't if the person is disqualified due to crimes? If so, think about all the positive national news stories if Mississippi elects a lesbian (and not just a lesbian -- the plaintiff in the Mississippi gay marriage suit) to statewide office!

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My understanding is that Mayor Mary is legitimately insane. Who knows though.

She couldn't have her outstanding mayoral record if she were totally insane.

And even if she were, it wouldn't change the fact that this looks really bad for Pickering. Remember, the auditor of all people has to be even cleaner than any other office -- if a different state officer had done this, it would be Pickering's job to nail him. We'll see what the investigation produces, but from what we've seen so far, Pickering should no longer be able to serve as Auditor. He shouldn't just drop out of the race, he should resign and hire a good expensive lawyer.

Another interesting thought I've had is what if Pickering still pulls it out on August 4 and then heads to jail this fall? I know parties can replace the nominee if he/she dies, but surely they can't if the person is disqualified due to crimes? If so, think about all the positive national news stories if Mississippi elects a lesbian (and not just a lesbian -- the plaintiff in the Mississippi gay marriage suit) to statewide office!

If there is a libertarian or consititution party candidate on the ballot, MS would probably vote for them over an open lesbian.

Think the Reform has someone in.

Ah, the Pat Buchanan enthusiasts. It would be hilarious to see one of them elected.

There's no chance of that. They have no money, no website, no organization, and they run the same candidates over and over, year after year. (And while I can't confirm this because the candidate has no internet presence at all, the name appears to be a black woman, which unfortunately is a bridge too far, at least for a third-party no-money no-name candidate.)

If by some chance (and I don't think this is likely at all), the ballot just had Democrat and Reform, JP would win with 70% of the vote or so.

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#Marymentum in full swing! The walls of Jericho crumble Tuesday!

I agree with the rest of above classifications. I think Mosley must either be a closet Obamacare supporter, or just not very well-informed about it. I think if he'd made "Chaney loves Obamacare!!!1" the focus of his campaign he probably would've won.

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AP is doing all races + providing county results.

Do you have a link for the AP results?

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Oops. I meant to link it in my previous post.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_county/MS_Page_0804.html?SITE=MSJADELN&SECTION=POLITICS

Nice. Let's go MHB!

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I'll keep the elections updated here:
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=28&f=0&off=99

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AP has called the R governor primary for Phil Bryant.

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Gray (first alphabetically) doing well in precincts where most voters are really Republican but voting in the Democratic primary because that's what all the local/county races are. Nothing too surprising.