Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[Del Tachi]

I've heard unsubstantiated rumors that Delbert Hosemann will be challenging Tate Reeves for the Lt. Governor nomination next year, and Parker Wiseman will run as a Democrat against Lynn Fitch for State Treasurer. 

[Del Tachi]

Geoff Pender on how the Cochran/McDaniel dichotomy will affect statewide elections in 2015.

Bryant will be rolled out a red carpet on his way to a second-term, the interesting races/primaries will be further down ballot.  '

I doubt McDaniel goes for a statewide office, and he probably declines reelection the State Senate as well.  The political futures of Michael Watson and Melanie Sojourner will be what plays out next year.  Sojourner probably retires from the Senate like McDaniel will, but I think Watson will go for a statewide office.

The Democratic field is quite fluid right now, and if Jim Hood decides to retire it will be disasterous for them.  If Travis Childers runs a respectably close campaign against Thad Cochran then I guess he could plot a comeback in 2015.   

[Del Tachi]

Bryant is practically indestructible.  He has both Tea Party and establishment support and, according to PPP at least, not even Hood can touch him.  We won't be seeing Tea Partiers or Democrats making a play for the Governor's Mansion next year.

Watson probably primaries Reeves, but so will Hosemann.  In a massive embarrassment to the MS Tea Party, Watson won't even make the runoff.  Mark my words. 

[Del Tachi]

Endorsed!

[Del Tachi]

Endorsed!

[Del Tachi]

It seems that Fitch - McRae may be the most interesting primary race. And may be - the only one, which may be interesting..

Correct.  The good ol' boy network has always had reservations about Fitch, and its going to be interesting to see if Fitch can eek-out a win if the Establishment abandons her. 

My bets on a narrow Fitch win, she should have state employees locked-up due to her historically support of PERS. 

[Del Tachi]

I'm a lot more interested to see what happens in the Auditor primary than the Treasurer primary, myself.

Pickering is good as gold.  I think he wins that one easily.   

[Del Tachi]

I'll post-up a race-by-race analysis later, but I think that Democrats gain seats in the House and Senate. 

[Del Tachi]

Is it Jolly (D) who represents a district that went over 60% Romney? Or Wilemon (D)?

Looking at the districts, its probably Wilemon as Jolly's district includes Chickasaw County. 

[Del Tachi]

The most I can see coming from this - MS flag referendum 2k16!!

Or, if it moves quickly enough, could a flag question find its way onto the ballot in time for state elections this fall?

[Del Tachi]

I hope that the state legislature opts to not redesign the flag chiefly for the reason that the alternate designed proposed in 2001 was simply awful.

A two-round referendum should be held.  The first vote should be a simple "yes" or "no" vote on whether the current state flag should continue to be used.  If "no" wins that vote, then a process should be implemented to allow for submissions for new flag design from citizens.  A committee selected by the legislature (but not composed of legislators) should narrow the pool down to 3-5 flag designs, and then those designs should be resubmitted to the people on a second ballot to choose which one the people of Mississippi want representing the state.  No state flag should be able to be adopted without at least 35% support from the electorate. 

[Del Tachi]

Report from the frontlines:  This weekend at the Jacinto Courthouse annual political speaking (which is the second-largest in the state) both Nick Bain and Lauren Childers looked very, very organized.  I'd be surprised if either one of them lost. 

[Del Tachi]

Who do you guys think will be the Democratic nominee for governor this year?

Vicki Slater. She'll get blown out in the general though.

Think Bryant will get >60% ?

No.  Slater will improve on the Democrat's 2011 performance.

[Del Tachi]

Mary Hawkins-Butler ultra low budget commercials LOL

[Del Tachi]

Super Premature 2019 speculation:  Reeves, Fitch, Gunn and Presley for Governor; Delbert Hosemann and Gray Tollison for LG; Mike Tagert for SOS

[Del Tachi]

I've never understood Reeves as someone who has ambitions to go to D.C., and it seems unlikely that Cochran would retire when he has the Ag Committee to go back to in 2019 in-advance of the next Farm Bill (which should be due before 2020).  Cochran only goes if he's able to hand-select his successor (someone like Mark Keenum) and that seems unlikely given Bryant's not-so-secret hostility towards the Cochran-wing of the MS-GOP.

2019 will be a clown-car for the GOP, and the succeeding open Senate election in 2020 will likewise be a clown-car.  With Reeves in the Governor's Mansion come 2020, by bets are on Stacey Pickering going to D.C. to replace Cochran, but I expect that Lynn Fitch will take a stab at it as well.     

[Del Tachi]

My understanding is that Cochran only ran in 2014 because the top GOPers wanted to handpick the next senator (in this scenario Cochran retires mid-term and Bryant appoints somebody, similar to Lott retiring mid-term in 2007). Maybe not though, the farm bill note is a good point. When Cochran steps down, I feel like Pickering would definitely run, he was prepared to run if Cochran didn't. Also think Hosemann is very interested in a possible Senate bid.

Eh, Cochran hedged on his 2014 decision because he unsure of the GOP's ability to win back the Senate.  Once he was persuaded that the GOP had more than even-odds to retake the upper chamber, his decision was easy: he wanted to be at the helm of Approps.  Chris McDaniel (or any other potential Senate candidate, for that matter) was a non-factor in Cochran's decision to seek reelection.

Do you guys think Chris McDaniel will run for Senate again at some point?

No.  Chris McDaniel isn't going to be able to touch any federal office with a ten-foot pole.  After his temper tantrum following his loss last year, not even the national Tea Party organizations have any love left for the guy.  In the event he goes for MS-04 next year, the race will be billed as competitive but I don't expect Steven Palazzo to have any serious problems if he locks-up the Gulf Coast.   

[Del Tachi]

Mississippi's internal politics in the GOP are so of the more interesting ones in the deep south

Mississippi is interesting to outsiders because its one of the few states in the country where the Tea Party hasn't completely co-opted the state GOP.  The legacy of Haley Barbour will forever live-on. 

[Del Tachi]

Similar to Harry's dilemma, I will probably be voting in the Democratic primary this August.  All of the competitive primary elections in my county are on the Democratic side of the ballot, and its even questionable if a single Republican will win a office in my county.  The only thing that could get me into the GOP primary would be if I felt like I needed to "save Lynn" but I think she holds a small, yet consistent advantage over McRae.  Both the Insurance Commissioner and State Auditor races are safe for the GOP incumbents, imo.

DT or anyone else, what do you know about John Mosley, the guy running against Chaney for Insurance Commissioner?

Yes!  I actually ran into him at a recent political speaking I attended.  I thought it was quite funny because the event was rather small, he was the only candidate for statewide office in attendance, he was the only Republican candidate in attendance, and the event took place in one of the most insignificant counties in the entire state and is located several hours away from what one would consider to be "Moseley's base" of Metro Jackson.  He spoke for maybe about 5 or 6 minutes before the entire group (about 40 voters) and spoke almost exclusively about his experience working with auto insurers.  I thought that was an interesting angle to take against Chaney, but my bet would be that he's a genuine guy who has some sort of genuine beef with the InsComm office over auto insurance.  Seems like a good enough guy, but he'll still lose spectacularly.      

 

[Del Tachi]

Whats the deal with the republican in the 54% black district?

Buck Clarke is a popular CPA with good relationships among the Black community and he's chairman of the Senate Approps Committee.  Everyone literally loves the guy.  No serious Black candidate bothers to run in that district because he's locked-up support from all of the big, Black churches and city/county officials.   

He's basically been doing what Thad Cochran did in 2014 for several years now.  One of the best state legislators, imo.   

[Del Tachi]

The only thing that could get me into the GOP primary would be if I felt like I needed to "save Lynn" but I think she holds a small, yet consistent advantage over McRae.  Both the Insurance Commissioner and State Auditor races are safe for the GOP incumbents, imo.

Interesting. Have you seen polling that says so, or is it just a general feeling? I've thought the opposite, although I could easily be wrong, as I don't really have any evidence.

Most of my observations are anecdotal.  I've seen a smidgen of very outdated polling on the Treasurer's race and some more recent numbers on InsComm, and they both seemed to indicate that the incumbents were favored - albeit not by huge margins for Fitch.    

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Not so fast.  Let's not forget that Lynn Fitch is also a longtime Madison County resident, and I think that put's her in a relatively strong position in Metro Jackson.  McRae is certainly a strong challenger, but I don't think he's going to be able to post the kind of numbers in Madison and Rankin counties that are going to erase Fitch's leads in DeSoto, Forrest/Lamar, the Coast, and the handful of Republican ballots that will be coming from other parts of the state.  I couldn't see McRae topping 60ish percent in Madison and Rankin.    

I agree with your assessment that there will be some interesting turnout dynamics for the GOP primary in Metro Jackson, and that these dynamics probably on balance  stand to benefit McRae and MHB but I just can't see that being enough to carry them over the finish line.  I don't have numbers to back-up that assessment, but just a general feeling.  I wouldn't be surprised if Fitch went down narrowly (or not so narrowly) on primary day, but I don't think McRae running the table in Metro Jackson would be enough to do it - he'd have to exceed expectations in DeSoto and the Coast.      

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My general understanding is that MHB's motivations in running lie in a longstanding beef she has with the current State Auditor regarding investigations into misappropriation of funds by the Madison County Board of Supervisors.  On top of that, her only concrete platform point seems to be that she wants to bring in accounting firms to do independent audits of all major state agencies annually (which, is strange because I thought that was what the auditor's job was suppose to be lol).  I just don't think she's a candidate that many of the Republican powerbrokers in the state can get behind, and I think she's going to go down quite spectacularly on August 4.      

[Del Tachi]

Too little too late.  It won't stick. 

[Del Tachi]

McRae's money advantage is really showing in the final stretch.  There was a stinging ad to come out on Fitch over the past few days, and as much as I hate to admit it, it's good and hits her in all of the weak spots.  Fitch has stumbled and seems to not have adequately responded.  After some further thinking about it, I'm going to say that McRae has a slight advantage going into Tuesday.

Ranking the statewide races something like this:

GOP Governor - Safe Bryant
DEM Governor - Likely Slater
GOP Lt. Governor - Safe Reeves
DEM Lt. Governor - Likely Johnson
GOP Treasurer - Tossup/Advantage McRae
GOP Auditor - Lean Pickering
GOP Insurance Commissioner - Safe Chaney

And some interesting legislative primaries that I feel educated about:

GOP SD 6 - Tossup/Advantage McMahan
DEM SD10 - Tossup/Advantage Hale
GOP SD 25 - Likely Longwitz
GOP HD 43 - Likely Robertson

[Del Tachi]

#Marymentum in full swing! The walls of Jericho crumble Tuesday!

I agree with the rest of above classifications. I think Mosley must either be a closet Obamacare supporter, or just not very well-informed about it. I think if he'd made "Chaney loves Obamacare!!!1" the focus of his campaign he probably would've won.

An auto-mechanic from Clinton isn't the best candidate to credibly deliver an anti-Obamacare message.  If some ambitious, Tea Party-type state legislator had turned the InsComm race into a referendum on Chaney's stance on Obamacare then we'd be looking at a much different race.  The fact that Chaney garnered no serious opposition in the primary is indicative to me that the MSGOP has its act together and just wants the Obamacare issue to go away more than anything else. 

[Del Tachi]

Any idea on who is backing who in the treasurer race? It's my understanding that Reeves is behind McRae but unsure who the Barbour machine and Bryant are supporting.

Bryant doesn't really have much of a machine.  He's an accidental governor.

Fitch has always been one of Barbour's favorites.