Mississippi 2015 Megathread

[smoltchanov]

If I had to guess, the Senate will stay about the same as the Dixiecrats are gone and everyone is packed into neatly gerrymandered districts.  The Republicans gain around 10 seats in the House with the new lines, but the number of black Democrats goes up too.

So, the Democratic caucus will be (with few exceptions) a Black caucus? The same gradually happens in Alabama, Louisiana and some other states.

[smoltchanov]

2011 was the first time white legislators were a minority of the Democratic caucus.

I know. And they will be smaller and smaller minoriy with each next election

[smoltchanov]

After all, blacks are increasing their numbers in Mississippi!

But they are 37% (or about that) of population and 55-60% (can count precisely, but approximately so) of Democratic caucus. Not exactly the same numbers))))

[smoltchanov]

Well, 40% is, really, almost always a guarantee... The problem is that 45% is almost always (Hood is exception) a ceiling as of late.

State legislative elections will be interesting too. Republicans can get supermajority in state Senate, but, most likely, not in the House...

[smoltchanov]

Good news! I always opposed 1-party dominance, and that means i am solidly for Democrats in the South now.

[smoltchanov]

It seems that Fitch - McRae may be the most interesting primary race. And may be - the only one, which may be interesting..

[smoltchanov]

AFAIK, this time redistricting was conducted by Republicans and it's the first post-redistricting election. Naturally, Republicans almost completely left black Democrats alone (it seems, no more then 2-3 of them have even token Republican opposition), at the same time - attacking remaining white (usually - somewhat more conservative, though there are almost no one resembling "solid"conservatives of the past) Democrats. That alone must give them 3-5 seats. Whether Democrats can be able to compensate that in other districts - another matter..

[smoltchanov]

Looking at the list of candidates on the SOS site, here are the GOP incumbents that are receiving primary challenges. Names in bold are incumbents.

House

Eugene Hamilton/Dana Criwell (District 6, DeSoto)
Wanda Jennings/Steve Hopkins (District 7, DeSoto)
Randy Boyd/Peggy Schumpert Hussey(District 19, Itawamba)
Gene Alday/Julian Chandler Bramlett/Melissa Conn/Dan Eubanks (District 25, DeSoto)
Joey Hood/Brian Sims (District 35, Winston/Neshoba)
Pat Nelson/Ashley Henson (District 40, DeSoto)
John Moore/Paul Buisson (District 60, Rankin)
Ray Rogers/Randall Stephens (District 61, Rankin)
Tom Weathersby/Wesley Wilson (District 62, Rankin)
Gary Staples/Christopher Hodge/Mitchell Pitts (District 88, Jones)
Ken Morgan/Harry Griffith (District 100, Marion)
Toby Barker/Ric McCluskey (District 102, Forrest)
Jeff Guice/Barney O’Neal (District 114, Harrison)
Greg Haney/John McCay III (District 118, Harrison)
Carolyn Crawford/Jeff Wallace (District 121, Harrison)

Senate

Chris Massey/James Eubanks (District 1, DeSoto)
Nancy Collins/Mike Armour/Chris McMahan (District 6, Lee/Itawamba)
Charles Younger/Bobby Patrick Jr. (District 17, Lowndes/Monroe)
Briggs Hopson/Bill Marcy (District 23, Warren/Issaquena/Yazoo)
Will Longwitz/William Billingsley (District 25, Madison/Hinds)
Melanie Sojourner/Curtis Moroney/Lane Reed (District 37, Adams/Franklin/Pike/Amite)
Sally Doty/Mike Campbell (District 39, Lincoln/Lawrence/Walthall/Copiah)
Phillip Gandy/Dennis DeBar (District 43, George/Greene/Wayne)
Sean Tindell/Katherine DeCoito (District 49, Harrison)
Michael Watson/Butch Loper (District 51, Jackson)

Good and thanks! But ideological differences (even if subtle) are important here. Watson and Sojourner were among staunchest McDaniel supporters for example, but in most cases i don't have an info.

P.S. Corresponding list for Democrats would also be helpful (i think - it's substantially shorter)

[smoltchanov]

Thanks a lot! It will be helpful in August. Though Stone is incumbent too AFAIK....  And Dawkins is the only one who can legitimately be called a "very liberal". I wonder how she manages to win in her district...)))

[smoltchanov]

Though Stone is incumbent too AFAIK....))

Yes, you are right. His district changed due to redistricting so he's running in district 10 now. Correction made.

More thanks! Of two Hale seems to be more conservative. And what about Dawkins - a Black-majority district, which may elect a very liberal white? Or - personal popularity despite this?

[smoltchanov]

Even more thanks (for link too). Well, even with students 22% Black district in Mississippi will be tough nut for any progressive. We shall see how she fares (and Dawkins too). In addition - Tollison (a perfect "opportunist", who, essentially, was a center-right Democrat (far from being most conservative even in Democratic caucus) before switching, and is a "pragmatic conservative" Republican now) is an experienced politician. He will be really tough to beat.

[smoltchanov]

Sligtly more optimistic prediction that i made (based mostly on a fact that redistricting in the state was done by Republicans, who tried to maximize republican performance in the state, Expecially - at the expense of somewhat conservative-leaning white Democrats). I had Senate about 1-2 seats more Republican, and House - 3-4 seats more Republican, that it's now...

One question: i know very well that most of the really conservative Democrats, which were still numerous in legislature by 2007 (people like Shows, Bounds, Rogers, Mettetal, Smith, Browning, Patterson, White) and voted for Smith in speakership battle, are Republicans now. Mississippi Conservative Legislative Coalition is almost identical with Republican caucus now. Now the most conservative Democrats in legislature are people like Wilemon, Hale and Steverson, who are, essentially, a pragmatic moderate conservatives. Do Democrats try to regain at least some foothold in conservative white areas of the state (out of neccessity - running rather solidly conservative candidates), or they simply concentrate on Black (and few liberal) districts, being content on seceding conservative one to Republicans?

P.S. I am writing my observations and predictions from Moscow (Russia). Hope that my knowledge of Mississippi politics is enough for questions not being too silly)))

P.S. 2 Thanks for excellent job! As usually i would like to know more about candidates from ideological point of view (though i suppose, that even best Republicans are no more then Cochran-style pragmatic conservatives, after all - it's not a Vermont or Massachusetts, where you can get better from them)...

[smoltchanov]

Dems can still win state legislative elections in the rural, white parts of the state mainly because the Dems have solid benches in these areas. Democrats hold almost every countywide position in the very rural areas of the state, and a lot of those Dems will run for spots in the legislature. So yes, Dems should still concentrate on the rural/white areas of the state because MS whites will still vote for Democrats on the local level and on the state legislative level.

Thanks! And what about my question about really conservative Democrats (not Hagan-Landriew-Pryor-Manchin style centrists, who are routinely called "conservatives" by activists, but real ones)? Do they still exist (in Democratic party of Mississippi) or almost all migrated to Republicans? Do they still run for office (legislature, for example)? For me anything, that breaks standard ("liberal Democrat" vs "conservative Republican") routine is of interest. Simply because it's unusual))))

[smoltchanov]

Guys like Tom Miles and Nick Bain are pretty conservative Democrats in the House. Wilemon is a good example in the Senate. Most of the conservative Democrats have either moved over to the Republican side or just hold office on the county level.

I've often wondered how these very conservative Dems vote on the federal level. I guess they vote for Dems in house or senate races (where the Dem nominee in MS is typically somewhat conservative) but can't imagine they vote for someone like Obama or Kerry in presidential elections. A few years ago, the insurance commissioner here (who was a Democrat) commented about how he voted George Bush in 2004. Have to think that is fairly common among other conservative Dems in the state, although some may vote for the Democrat nominee.

More thanks! If i remember correctly that Insurance commissioner (George Dale, who held office for 32 years) lost next Democratic primary. And, as routinely happens in South, office went not to more liberal Democratic primary winner (who, in addition, happened to be Black), but to conservative Republican Mike Chaney. The question - what have Democrats won as a result?))))

And more about conservative Democrats: of course, Miles, Bain, Wilemon (one could also add Hale, Steverson and some other) are conservative-leaning. But they generally stand on "right of center" or "moderate conservative" positions: the most conservative by Boris Shor analysis (Wilemon) had 0.392 rating, that corresponds to "moderate conservative".  Even after 2007 election peope like Smith, Nicholson, Browning, Bounds, Mettetal and other had 0.6 - 0.7 rating ("strong conservatives"). and late Bill Minor had even above 0.8 rating. That's whom i call "really conservative legislators". I doubt we can expect someone like them anymore...

P.S. Couple of differences between your spreadsheet and Ballotpedia:

1. Ballotpedia lists Democratic candidate in District 1 as Lisa Wigginton, not Wiggins

2. Massengill/Cluck race is in district 13, not 14

[smoltchanov]

Excellent analysis, which i generally agree with (of course - living abroad now i don't have so much local knowledge, but, generally, thought in the same way). In addition - some races (like Parker/Powell and Clarke/Thomas) will show whether voting polarization by race is "set in stone" in many parts of Mississippi  as it is in many federal races (in this case Powell will lose with bigger margin then in 2011, and Clarke will lose too) or voting for Legislature is still relatively elastic (i was mildly surprised that Wilemon doesn't have ANY opposition in his district, which is one of the most white distiricts in the state, for example...)

[smoltchanov]

Looking at the races again, I had House District 73 as a Dem win but forgot redistricting moved the boundaries to North Jackson/Madison County. So, Cory Wilson the Republican will take the seat without opposition. Prediction changes to 67 GOP, 55 Dems.

So, +1 Republicans. And that even with you being relatively optimistic about Democratic chances in traditionaly Dixiecratic areas. Well, after Democratic drubbing in most of state legislatures last November that would still be very good...

I gathered some statistic about competition for House districts. It seems it confirmes what i said earlier: Republicans practically ignore districts represented by Black Democrats - only about 3 republicans run in them and, if i understand correctly, their chances are next to nothing. White Democrat's districts are much more competitive from Republican point of view and very few white Democrats have no republican opposition (like Wilemon and Jolly in state Senate, Steverson, Holland and Sullivan in House). Plus, there are, probably, some white-black Democratic primaries....

Senate, most likely, is the same.

And some "idelogical" Democratic statistic, based (again) on Boris Shor research and his enormous state legislative dataset (i don't know any bigger and more detailed one): all Black Democratic incumbents in Mississippi legislature with one exception (Deborah Butler Dixon of 63th state House district, who is, essentially, a centrist) are more or less liberal: from very solid one to very cautious, more similar to "left center". Among white Democrats no one, but Debora Dawkins, is a "genuine liberal", but, after numerous party switches and some retirements of the past decade - there are no "solid conservatives" either (probably - first time in Mississippi's history since 19th century, even in 2011 people like Nickey Browning, Jason White and Randall Patterson ran and won as rather consistent conservatives, but - all switched): all other white legislators span a diapason from "solid left center, not very different from very moderate liberals" (people like Bob Evans and Hob Bryan) to "pragmatic moderate conservatives" like Wilemon and Hale in state Senate or Steverson in House.

Republicans (IMHO) have only 2 graduations in the state: "establishment (generally - more pragmatic) conservatives" and "rabid tea-party right-wingers"...

[smoltchanov]

AFAIK - McDaniel thinks about that too. Southern Mississippi becoming a heaven for extreme right-wingers?

[smoltchanov]

Interesting, thanks! If i remember correctly Gene Taylor (as a Republican) beat Palazzo on coast, but lost rather heavily in "pine belt" in 2014 primary...

[smoltchanov]

Good article. The only name i read there and NOT on your spreadsheet seems to be Sam Mims (HD-97). And, as could be expected, all 5 Democrats they mention are white...

[smoltchanov]

Most will probably say that voters decided that when about 64% (including substantial percentge of Blacks) voted for this flag on referendum, and they can't override people's opinion)))

[smoltchanov]

Most will probably say that voters decided that when about 64% (including substantial percentge of Blacks) voted for this flag on referendum, and they can't override people's opinion)))

Bryant has already said this (before Gunn's comments), of course many people who voted in that election 14 years ago are probably dead now.

Sure. But it still will be used as excuse...

[smoltchanov]

I fully expect that to be the case. Just think it's a poor excuse.

BTW, hearing rumblings that Rep. Barker will call for a new flag tomorrow. Unlike Gunn, he does have competition in the GOP primary and in the general.

Obviously - it's important whether a competition will be from the right or not..

[smoltchanov]

It's interesting, whether (and if so - how) recent Supreme court decisions on ACA and, especially, SSM, will influence an outcome of August and November elections. Despite both issues being essentially "solved' now, reaction of most Mississippi politicians was far from being positive: even Democratic AG Hood  seemed to be rather dissatisfied with the latter (not very surprising for typical "southern populist", BTW, they were always much more progressive on economy then on social issues). Personally i think the discussion of all that during primaries and general election will be heated...

[smoltchanov]

Thanks a lot! It's only slightly over 5 weeks before primary, and, most likely, nothing really electorally interesting before that, so - let's see how it's all will get played...

[smoltchanov]

I see)))...... The full roster... And almost 3 times more "R" then "D"... Though 20-30 years ago it would be almost completely "D" with rare "R" in between. Even Scott Bounds was a Democrat (VERY conservative in REAL sense of this word, more so then even some Republicans, but still.....) less then decade ago...