Which ex-Soviet republics would join a 21st century, non-communist USSR?

[Indy Texas]

Assume that such a union would provide more somewhat more autonomy to the individual republics than the USSR did and would not include Marxism-Leninism or a centrally-planned economy. It would, however, be (somewhat inevitably) led by Russia and wouldn't be any more democratic than Russia currently is.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

You can only pick one option, but I'd guess Belerus, Kazahstan, and depending on who is in charge, the Ukraine are likely. I can't see the Baltic Republics wanting any part in that.

[Nhoj]

Even though you only gave one option, belarus is really the only one that would anyways.

[Indy Texas]

Damnit, I forgot to allow more than one option. Oh well.

My votes would have gone to Belarus and possibly Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

[Mr. Morden]

Damnit, I forgot to allow more than one option. Oh well.

My votes would have gone to Belarus and possibly Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

You can fix that with the edit poll option, no?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

These 6 obviously, since they are members of the CSTO and are members or candidates of the Eurasian Union (no countries are just one or the other):
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Russia
Armenia
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan



Obviously not would be
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Georgia
Ukraine (with the new government)

Probably not:
Turkmenistan (not CIS)
Moldavia (pro Russia puppet state in their territory)
Azerbaijan (pro Russia puppet state in their territory)
Uzbekistan (withdrew from CSTO in 2012)

Edited my list

[Zanas]

Azerbaijan most certainly would not, with the Muslim-turkish speaking thing and all that. Armenia would I guess. I don't think Kazakhstan would though, because they tend to try to be as independent as they realistically can from Russia. I don't know a lot about Kirgizstan or Tadjikistan. Turkmenistan is at least politically built on the same model, but I don't know how they would react to that, especially if Kazakhs and Uzbeks stand in between (I don't think Uzbeks would join either).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Those who would most likely join a new Soviet Union are the same ones wouldn't hold a free and fair referendum according to democratic standards. So, the point is moot.

As for an answer to the question:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Community

Which narrows it down to Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The dictator of Belerus openly wants to rejoin Russia IIRC.

[ag]

Russia, may be. Nobody else, really, unless they are first occupied by Russia.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

Russia, may be. Nobody else, really, unless they are first occupied by Russia.

I'm sure a few tinpot dictators could be found that would be willing to sell their people to Putin.

[MaxQue]

Russia, may be. Nobody else, really, unless they are first occupied by Russia.

I'm sure a few tinpot dictators could be found that would be willing to sell their people to Putin.

Why? If their country join Russia, they aren't ruling a country anymore.

[PiMp DaDdy FitzGerald]

Russia, may be. Nobody else, really, unless they are first occupied by Russia.

I'm sure a few tinpot dictators could be found that would be willing to sell their people to Putin.

Why? If their country join Russia, they aren't ruling a country anymore.

Dominican dictator Baez wanted to sell the Dominican Republic to the US in 1872 to avoid the hassle of ruling it and to profit off of his country. I'm sure if Yanukovich knew what was in store for his regime, he would have been more than willing to sell his country away. He already partially did it with the gas deal.

[Person Man]

I could obviously see Belarus and Kazakhstan rejoining in the next if 5 years if the conditions are right. Eventually, Ukraine, Georgia and maybe Armenia could be brought in if in the next 5 years, if they are successful in Ukraine this year. I don't think anything else would go to Russia without it quickly escalating.

What are Putin's ambitions? How much risk is he willing to take?

[MaxQue]

Russia, may be. Nobody else, really, unless they are first occupied by Russia.

I'm sure a few tinpot dictators could be found that would be willing to sell their people to Putin.

Why? If their country join Russia, they aren't ruling a country anymore.

Dominican dictator Baez wanted to sell the Dominican Republic to the US in 1872 to avoid the hassle of ruling it and to profit off of his country. I'm sure if Yanukovich knew what was in store for his regime, he would have been more than willing to sell his country away. He already partially did it with the gas deal.

The prestige of ruling a country in 1872 was very different than it's right now.

[Franknburger]

I could obviously see Belarus and Kazakhstan rejoining in the next if 5 years if the conditions are right. Eventually, Ukraine, Georgia and maybe Armenia could be brought in if in the next 5 years, if they are successful in Ukraine this year. I don't think anything else would go to Russia without it quickly escalating.

What are Putin's ambitions? How much risk is he willing to take?

Georgia? Never!

[politicus]

Russia and Belarus and thats it.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Aside from Russia, Belarus, easily. If I could pick a second choice, Kazakhstan.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Back when the Soviet Union did collapse, I was thinking that the rump replacement would end up consisting of Russia, Byelorussia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.  I saw no reason to think that it would expand beyond that. Up until recent events, the eventual reunion of all four was a possibility, but I see no way now that all of Ukraine would become part of Putinstan. Russia will likely gobble up Crimea and it may make a play for Eastern Ukraine, but not for Central or Western Ukraine.

[ag]

Back when the Soviet Union did collapse, I was thinking that the rump replacement would end up consisting of Russia, Byelorussia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.  I saw no reason to think that it would expand beyond that. Up until recent events, the eventual reunion of all four was a possibility, but I see no way now that all of Ukraine would become part of Putinstan. Russia will likely gobble up Crimea and it may make a play for Eastern Ukraine, but not for Central or Western Ukraine.

There was never any way of all of Ukraine being gobbled up by any sort of Russia - except by conquest. I was in Lviv back in 1990. Even then it felt almost more non-Russian then Tallinn. The only Russian we heard spoken on the street (when not addressing ourselves) was right after the Soviet Revolution Day celebrations, as the few participants were leaving the pro-Soviet manifestation with the red-and-blue flags of Soviet Ukraine.  In the woods around Lviv WWII was not over till 1953 (that is when the last remnants of the Ukrainian resistance were subdued).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I didn't say that such a reunion would have been widely desired or embraced by the Ukrainian people.  But if Ukraine had gone the dictatorial way of Belarus to the north, it certainly would not have been unthinkable that a continued and/or renewed link between Little Russia and Great Russia would have happened.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Only Russia and Belarus. Kazakhstan won't: Nazarbayev likes ruling his own country, and it would never vote to rejoin Russia or the USSR in a referendum (though it wouldn't be overwhelming). However, if it gets invaded by Russia, then all bets are off.

[Californiadreaming]

Assume that such a union would provide more somewhat more autonomy to the individual republics than the USSR did and would not include Marxism-Leninism or a centrally-planned economy. It would, however, be (somewhat inevitably) led by Russia and wouldn't be any more democratic than Russia currently is.

Either none of the above or only Belarus (if the leader of Belarus actually believes that he has a realistic chance of becoming the President of this new union state).

Indeed, nationalism can certainly be quite a powerful and potent force.

[GMantis]

Belarus obviously. But if it's a free referendum, the four southern central Asian States would probably also join, since it would be a significant improvement for them. Armenia is never going to join Russia voluntarily and neither are any of the others.

[Californiadreaming]

Belarus obviously. But if it's a free referendum, the four southern central Asian States would probably also join, since it would be a significant improvement for them. Armenia is never going to join Russia voluntarily and neither are any of the others.

Isn't Turkmenistan already relatively wealthy rich now, though?