State of the Senate

[NHLiberal]

In a few sentences, how would you sum up the overall state of the battle for control of the Senate from a big-picture perspective?

My answer:

The GOP is a virtual lock to pick up three Senate seats, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana, and are modest favorites to pick up two more seats, Arkansas and Louisiana. That said, I am confident that Democrats will manage to prevail in three of the other toss-up races on Election Day: North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado. As a result, I have Senate control hinging on the notoriously difficult to poll Alaska, the purest of toss-ups. Of course, that would be moot if Democrats are able to pick up one of their three target seats, Kentucky, Georgia, or Kansas, all of which at least tilt Republican but none of which are too far off from toss-up status.

[IceSpear]

I pretty much agree with you overall. Kansas has really thrown a wrench into things, and since Alaska polls are crap it is hard to judge that race as well.

Solid GOP: MT/WV/SD
Competitive, R favored: AR/LA/KY/GA
Competitive, D favored: CO/IA/NC/MI
Big question marks: AK/KS

[Dixie Reborn]

I pretty much agree with you overall. Kansas has really thrown a wrench into things, and since Alaska polls are crap it is hard to judge that race as well.

Solid GOP: MT/WV/SD
Competitive, R favored: AR/LA/KY/GA
Competitive, D favored: CO/IA/NC/MI
Big question marks: AK/KS

Iowa is pure Tossup. I can see why many would say it's D favored, but certainly not on the same level as Colorado and Michigan.

[Free Bird]

I pretty much agree with you overall. Kansas has really thrown a wrench into things, and since Alaska polls are crap it is hard to judge that race as well.

Solid GOP: MT/WV/SD
Competitive, R favored: AR/LA/KY/GA
Competitive, D favored: CO/IA/NC/MI
Big question marks: AK/KS

Iowa is pure Tossup. I can see why many would say it's D favored, but certainly not on the same level as Colorado and Michigan.

[IceSpear]

I pretty much agree with you overall. Kansas has really thrown a wrench into things, and since Alaska polls are crap it is hard to judge that race as well.

Solid GOP: MT/WV/SD
Competitive, R favored: AR/LA/KY/GA
Competitive, D favored: CO/IA/NC/MI
Big question marks: AK/KS

Iowa is pure Tossup. I can see why many would say it's D favored, but certainly not on the same level as Colorado and Michigan.

Yeah, I agree, I was deliberately excluding "toss up" in that post for the sake of simplicity and was trying to make as few categories as possible.

[Vern]

I pretty much agree with you overall. Kansas has really thrown a wrench into things, and since Alaska polls are crap it is hard to judge that race as well.

Solid GOP: MT/WV/SD
Competitive, R favored: AR/LA/KY/GA
Competitive, D favored: CO/IA/NC/MI
Big question marks: AK/KS

I agree with this.

[eric82oslo]

Nate Silver has just released info on the likely voter universe (during the last 3 weeks of a campaign) going back until 1990, that is a total of 12 election cycles analyzed. They show that the likely voter models on average overstate the luck of the non-presidential party by a whooping 1 percentage point! In 10 out of 12 election cycles, the presidential party's performance has been underestimated. The only two exceptions occurred in 1994 (Republican landslide) and in 2006 (Democratic landslide). So unless we're in for another Republican landslide this year, likely voter models will probably once again overstate Republicans' performance on election night. However, if that overestimation will only turn out to be 0.2% or if it will be a more substantial 2%, nobody honestly knows at this point.

Also, Nate's stats show that registered voter models have actually been closer to the actual midterm outcome in three elections (1990, 1998 & 2006), the same amount of times as likely voters models have been the most accurate (1994, 2002 & 2010). Thus, one should probably pay just as much attention to registered voter polls this year as likely voter polls.

Read Nate's post here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/registered-voter-polls-will-usually-overrate-democrats/

PS: Not only the average shows a bias for the non-presidential party of 1%, the median does as well!

[Mr. Reactionary]

I project that the GOP sweeps the Romney states (minus Kansas) and loses Iowa and Colorado. That means at least +7 for the GOP making the results of Kansas less important. Although I confess that a dream scenario for me is Orman caucusing with a Republican majority. After reading his website he seems like an old-school Perot voter (including having voted for Perot.) Perot voters are willing to vote for/criticize both parties, but tend to lean GOP (because they co-opted the balanced budget message)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My dream map is we win AK and AR and NC and KS votes for Orman. None of Romney states are sold for GOP as Tillis underperforms in NC. And Pryor is consistantly underestimated.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think the senate will come down to 8 states. Those are Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, and North Carolina. Write now, here's my outlook on those races.

Leaning R - GA, KY
Toss Up with R tilt - AR, LA
Pure Toss Up - AK, NC
Toss Up with D tilt - IA
Leaning D - CO

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Red SD and MnT and WVa
GOP favored GA and KY and La
Competetive seats AK and AR and NC
indy favored KS

Gop net 3 seats

[Ogre Mage]

We know the GOP will gain Senate seats, the question is if it will be a moderate or significant gain.  I expect the GOP will pick up anywhere from 3 to 6 senate seats.

[Vosem]

Republicans are strongly favored to pick up three seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, and reasonably favored to pick up three more in Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Four races look like pure tossups, Kansas (actually held by the Republicans), Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina; KS and NC tilt very slightly Republican, while CO and IA are the opposite, though the Democrats have been a running an inept campaign in Iowa; the Republicans have been doing this in Kansas. Beyond that, Democrats are reasonably favored to hold Michigan and New Hampshire, while Republicans are reasonably favored to hold Georgia and Kentucky, with races beyond that largely safe for both parties. The likeliest result right now is R+7 (a Republican majority of 52-48), but anything between R+3 and R+11 is easy to make a realistic map for, and by including 'safe' races where a slight (say, 1%) chance exists for the other party you can get a result anywhere between D+1 and R+15.

Republicans are mildly favored to take the Senate, in other words, largely on the strength of Romney states, but are having trouble expanding into Obama territory and their takeover of the Senate is as yet by no means guaranteed.

[NHLiberal]

Republicans are strongly favored to pick up three seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, and reasonably favored to pick up three more in Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Four races look like pure tossups, Kansas (actually held by the Republicans), Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina; KS and NC tilt very slightly Republican, while CO and IA are the opposite, though the Democrats have been a running an inept campaign in Iowa; the Republicans have been doing this in Kansas. Beyond that, Democrats are reasonably favored to hold Michigan and New Hampshire, while Republicans are reasonably favored to hold Georgia and Kentucky, with races beyond that largely safe for both parties. The likeliest result right now is R+7 (a Republican majority of 52-48), but anything between R+3 and R+11 is easy to make a realistic map for, and by including 'safe' races where a slight (say, 1%) chance exists for the other party you can get a result anywhere between D+1 and R+15.

Republicans are mildly favored to take the Senate, in other words, largely on the strength of Romney states, but are having trouble expanding into Obama territory and their takeover of the Senate is as yet by no means guaranteed.

Other than these two, I agree with your assessment. Alaska is a pure toss-up, as is NC (though the tiniest of Dem advantages in the latter).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP max is seven seats but realistically theywill take 3-4 seats SD, WVa and Mnt are only assured to them.