The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

With 99% in Leonard Lance makes it, 55-45. Did not expect NJ-7 to be the closest NJ house race.

[7,052,770]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Not saying Childers will win, but the "Mississippi is inelastic" meme only applies to presidential elections. Remember that as late as 2008 3 of Mississippi's 4 districts sent Democrats to the House.

Musgrove only ran 2 points ahead of Obama in 2008.  I'm not holding my breath for a Childers win.

And Childers ran, what, 25?, points ahead of Obama in 2008?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Rankin County is (finally!) up to 68%.  Mamacita leads 50.1-48.8%.

[RogueBeaver]

Cochran allies now telling NBC that a runoff is their best case scenario.

[Never]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Not saying Childers will win, but the "Mississippi is inelastic" meme only applies to presidential elections. Remember that as late as 2008 3 of Mississippi's 4 districts sent Democrats to the House.

Well, that's true, but it has been a couple of decades since Mississippi has sent a Democrat to the Senate. 2014 is not going to be the year that changes.

[Miles]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Not saying Childers will win, but the "Mississippi is inelastic" meme only applies to presidential elections. Remember that as late as 2008 3 of Mississippi's 4 districts sent Democrats to the House.

Musgrove only ran 2 points ahead of Obama in 2008.  I'm not holding my breath for a Childers win.

Yeah, but OTOH, Wicker is no McDaniel.

[Maxwell]

The AP called the New Jersey Senate for Jeffrey Bell, the man who started the anti-Republican Senator streak in New Jersey.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Not saying Childers will win, but the "Mississippi is inelastic" meme only applies to presidential elections. Remember that as late as 2008 3 of Mississippi's 4 districts sent Democrats to the House.

Well, that's true, but it has been a couple of decades since Mississippi has sent a Democrat to the Senate. 2014 is not going to be the year that changes.

And as recently as 1999, they elected a Dem governor.

[Never]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Probably. But Mourdock was favored as well. Considering McDaniel is a racist neoconfederate, I'd say chances are pretty high he will make an Akin/Mourdock gaffe.

Well, it is possible that both Akin and Mourdock could have won in Mississippi. That wouldn't be a good thing by any stretch, but still, it could happen...

[Maxwell]

Excellent news! Looks like Palmer will make it to the run-off. Now I have someone to root for!

[Torie]

Cochran will need those 28 precincts still out in Hinds to get into the runoff.

[7,052,770]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Not saying Childers will win, but the "Mississippi is inelastic" meme only applies to presidential elections. Remember that as late as 2008 3 of Mississippi's 4 districts sent Democrats to the House.

Well, that's true, but it has been a couple of decades since Mississippi has sent a Democrat to the Senate. 2014 is not going to be the year that changes.

It's McDaniel's to lose, no doubt. But he's a far bigger buffoon than all the other buffoons the Tea Party has put up in other states and is extremely gaffe-prone. We definitely don't have all the facts on photogate, and more Tea Party leaders/prominent McDaniel supporters are likely to be implicated.

At the very least, Mississippi jumps to #1 on the most likely Democratic pickups this year if McDaniel pulls it out. Childers just has to sit back and see if McDaniel blows it.

[GaussLaw]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Not saying Childers will win, but the "Mississippi is inelastic" meme only applies to presidential elections. Remember that as late as 2008 3 of Mississippi's 4 districts sent Democrats to the House.

Musgrove only ran 2 points ahead of Obama in 2008.  I'm not holding my breath for a Childers win.

And Childers ran, what, 25?, points ahead of Obama in 2008?

Fair point, but Childers sure didn't do well in 2010, and I don't see him going to 2008 levels.  Also, Senate elections are easier to nationalize than House races.  After all, MS Senate races became GOP long before MS House.

[Miles]

Excellent news! Looks like Palmer will make it to the run-off. Now I have someone to root for!

Yeah, Beason, Mathis and Brooke are all at 14-15%. Palmer probably has this with only 10 precincts left.

[IceSpear]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Probably. But Mourdock was favored as well. Considering McDaniel is a racist neoconfederate, I'd say chances are pretty high he will make an Akin/Mourdock gaffe.

Well, it is possible that both Akin and Mourdock could have won in Mississippi. That wouldn't be a good thing by any stretch, but still...

Yeah, I'm not saying I think Childers has a GREAT chance or anything, clearly Donnelly and McCaskill had much easier roads than he will. But there is a possibility.

[GaussLaw]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Probably. But Mourdock was favored as well. Considering McDaniel is a racist neoconfederate, I'd say chances are pretty high he will make an Akin/Mourdock gaffe.

Well, it is possible that both Akin and Mourdock could have won in Mississippi. That wouldn't be a good thing by any stretch, but still, it could happen...

Mourdock would easily have won Mississippi since he only lost Indiana by 6.

Akin, not so much.........

[ElectionsGuy]

99% in for MS-4 and Palazzo is just above 50%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ernst is at 55% right now - she was polling at 36% - Either she won like every single undecided voter or there's a lot of bad counties for Ernst that haven't been counted yet (only 47% of the vote is in).

91% in MS, McDaniel leading 49.7 to 48.7.

Also, for those of you looking at the MT results, yes Walsh won the nomination, but he's most likely not going to be at 64% at night's end - the most left-leaning precincts always come in first in MT, and Bohlinger is a lot further to the right on the political spectrum than Walsh is.

First CA governor results in, big lead for Brown as expected, but Kashkari has an early 17-vote lead on Donnelly.

[ElectionsGuy]

Pat Murphy is the confirmed D candidate for IA-1, Bruce Braley's seat.

[7,052,770]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Probably. But Mourdock was favored as well. Considering McDaniel is a racist neoconfederate, I'd say chances are pretty high he will make an Akin/Mourdock gaffe.

Well, it is possible that both Akin and Mourdock could have won in Mississippi. That wouldn't be a good thing by any stretch, but still, it could happen...

Mourdock would easily have won Mississippi since he only lost Indiana by 6.

Akin, not so much.........

Mississippi was only about 1 point more Republican than Indiana in 2012.

(And now I'm done playing devil's advocate. I realize Childers has a tough road ahead. But McDaniel will definitely make another major gaffe or 2, and this photo scandal's not going away.)

[Miles]

Yep, AP gives Palmer the check.

[Donerail]

How has Taylor done in Lamar so far tonight? It's the only county with outstanding precincts in his district and his only shot at making a runoff.

[cinyc]

Covington County, next to McDaniel's Jones County is out.  If it goes as much for McDaniel as neighboring counties and the Hinds County precincts are mainly African-American, it could put him above the mark for a runoff.

[IceSpear]

Also, if it ends up being a runoff, Cochran is going to throw everything besides the kitchen sink at McDaniel, and vice versa. It's going to get ugly. This will help Childers.

[ElectionsGuy]

This race is probably going to a runoff...

I was wondering, do you think that anonymous third candidate jumped in on purpose, to make a runoff possible and possibly to benefit McDaniel?