The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[GaussLaw]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Probably. But Mourdock was favored as well. Considering McDaniel is a racist neoconfederate, I'd say chances are pretty high he will make an Akin/Mourdock gaffe.

Well, it is possible that both Akin and Mourdock could have won in Mississippi. That wouldn't be a good thing by any stretch, but still, it could happen...

Mourdock would easily have won Mississippi since he only lost Indiana by 6.

Akin, not so much.........

Mississippi was only about 1 point more Republican than Indiana in 2012.

(And now I'm done playing devil's advocate. I realize Childers has a tough road ahead. But McDaniel will definitely make another major gaffe or 2, and this photo scandal's not going away.)

But when you account for elasticity differences, the difference expands.  Also, midterm turnout in MS vs. Presidential turnout for Indiana.  That easily makes up the 5 point difference(as MS is 1 point mroe GOP).  Also, the % of people who identify as conservative is among the nation's highest in MS, not so in Indiana.  

I agree, 2 gaffes and McDaniel's finished.  

But now, he'd win by 8-10 points I think.

EDIT:  I see what you're saying though.  Dems should invest money here just so the GOP has to as well.  But this is no better than an OR-SEN for Republicans.

[7,052,770]

Also, if it ends up being a runoff, Cochran is going to throw everything besides the kitchen sink at McDaniel, and vice versa. It's going to get ugly. This will help Childers.

And, all of this Republican money pouring into Mississippi for the runoff is not going to be pouring into Arkansas, Louisiana, etc., so that's a major plus even if Republicans hold the state in November.

[Miles]

How has Taylor done in Lamar so far tonight? It's the only county with outstanding precincts in his district and his only shot at making a runoff.

Bad. Losing 64/30

[Maxwell]

Kashkari, thus far, holds a narrow lead over Donnelly, but obviously the night is young.

And lol, Jerr Bear is at 56%.

[LeBron]

For the recent other updates, Walsh is still crushing the anti-gay Bohlinger while Lewis is still winning handily in the Dem House primary and Stapleton is leading Zinke 36-33 with 2% in.

"Gay, lesbian and bisexual Americans lived in the shadows. An outed gay man was regarded as a security risk, a potential traitor and not entitled to any position of trust." - John Bohlinger, listing reasons why the 1950s were bad.

"America has changed, and some of have learned and permitted our thoughts and beliefs to change and grow as well. The average American is not a financially successful middle-aged heterosexual Christian white guy. We are gay and straight, male, female and transgendered, we have pale skins or dark skins, we are young and old." - John Bohlinger on Americans.

If you're going to attack the guy, at least do so accurately.

Bohlinger's own campaign website isn't exactly going to tell the whole truth considering his record shows Bohlinger's history has him supporting hate crime laws, but not same-sex marriage. Walsh himself recently endorsed SSM. And while we're talking about this, AP calls the race for Walsh! Woooo

Amazing how we just saw a huge reversal of fortune for Cochran. Now it's Cochran who has to pray that McDaniel doesn't get above 50% and McDaniel is pretty dang close to it with more than 9/10th's of precincts in. Palazzo's still above 50%.

In Iowa, Pat Murphy has been called in IA-1's Dem primary so he's likely to win that seat and Brad Zaun is down to 29% against Cramer with 70% in. :/  Come on Zaun!

[IceSpear]

Orly Taitz is only at 3% in the CA Attorney General race. Hopefully she sues the state and every candidate for election fraud.

[Miles]

MS-04 called. Palazzo

Good effort by Taylor, though.

[Never]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Probably. But Mourdock was favored as well. Considering McDaniel is a racist neoconfederate, I'd say chances are pretty high he will make an Akin/Mourdock gaffe.

Well, it is possible that both Akin and Mourdock could have won in Mississippi. That wouldn't be a good thing by any stretch, but still, it could happen...

Mourdock would easily have won Mississippi since he only lost Indiana by 6.

Akin, not so much.........

Mississippi was only about 1 point more Republican than Indiana in 2012.

(And now I'm done playing devil's advocate. I realize Childers has a tough road ahead. But McDaniel will definitely make another major gaffe or 2, and this photo scandal's not going away.)

But when you account for elasticity differences, the difference expands.  Also, midterm turnout in MS vs. Presidential turnout for Indiana.  That easily makes up the 5 point difference(as MS is 1 point mroe GOP).  Also, the % of people who identify as conservative is among the nation's highest in MS, not so in Indiana.  

I agree, 2 gaffes and McDaniel's finished.  

But now, he'd win by 8-10 points I think.

If McDaniel has half a brain, he would just lay low and not make that many statements. Of course, he would still have to debate Childers if I'm not mistaken, but if we haven't seen a gaffe by then, I don't think McDaniel is in much danger of losing to Childers, should he win the GOP nod.

[ElectionsGuy]

Allen Weh is the R candidate for senate in NM.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Kashkari coming in 3rd combined with Brown being over 50 percent would be a wonderful epitaph for the California GOP.

[Never]

AOSHQDD has McDaniel holding at 50.12%, Cochran at 48.3%.

RealClearPolitics has McDaniel at 49.8%, Cochran at 48.6%

At this point, it seems like a 50/50 chance of a runoff happening.

[GaussLaw]

I wonder if conservatives will now cite Jones County as a reason for the GOP to move further to the right by saying something about how being crazy will unlock all the "missing" white voters or something

(It's a crazy argument, I know, but I could see it given how huge that turnout was)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

93% now in MS, McDaniel leading 49.7 to 48.7. Most of the counties with only partial results are going for Cochran, but a few are going for McDaniel. Still nothing in from Holmes or Covington though.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

AOSHQDD has McDaniel holding at 50.12%, Cochran at 48.3%.

RealClearPolitics has McDaniel at 49.8%, Cochran at 48.6%

At this point, it seems like a 50/50 chance of a runoff happening.

AOSHQDD's results look a little outdated. But still, McDaniel is hovering dangerously close to 50%.

[Donerail]

For the recent other updates, Walsh is still crushing the anti-gay Bohlinger while Lewis is still winning handily in the Dem House primary and Stapleton is leading Zinke 36-33 with 2% in.

"Gay, lesbian and bisexual Americans lived in the shadows. An outed gay man was regarded as a security risk, a potential traitor and not entitled to any position of trust." - John Bohlinger, listing reasons why the 1950s were bad.

"America has changed, and some of have learned and permitted our thoughts and beliefs to change and grow as well. The average American is not a financially successful middle-aged heterosexual Christian white guy. We are gay and straight, male, female and transgendered, we have pale skins or dark skins, we are young and old." - John Bohlinger on Americans.

If you're going to attack the guy, at least do so accurately.

Bohlinger's own campaign website isn't exactly going to tell the whole truth considering his record shows Bohlinger's history has him supporting hate crime laws, but not same-sex marriage. Walsh himself recently endorsed SSM. And while we're talking about this, AP calls the race for Walsh! Woooo

Yes, I would believe that Bohlinger's 2014 campaign website is more reflective of his current positions than whatever he said in 1998.

[Torie]

Kashkari coming in 3rd combined with Brown being over 50 percent would be a wonderful epitaph for the California GOP.

Kashkari has clearly won the honor to lose to Jerry in November. He ran a ton of ads on Fox News, and they were effective.

[Never]

I wonder if conservatives will now cite Jones County as a reason for the GOP to move further to the right by saying something about how being crazy will unlock all the "missing" white voters or something

(It's a crazy argument, I know, but I could see it given how huge that turnout was)

Yeah, turnout seems unusually high. Ace of Spades is saying that 119%(!) of predicted turnout has come in so far, and the precincts haven't even finished reporting.

[Miles]

AOS project McDaniel 49.78%, Cochran 48.61%.

[IceSpear]

If it goes to a runoff, will Dems/indies be able to vote in it?

[Lief 🗽]

Dems might not get through to the general election in CA-25. Ugh.

[7,052,770]

If it goes to a runoff, will Dems/indies be able to vote in it?

Not if we didn't vote in it today. I voted in the Democratic primary today for Childers, so I won't be able to vote in the runoff.

[IceSpear]

If it goes to a runoff, will Dems/indies be able to vote in it?

Not if we didn't vote in it today. I voted in the Democratic primary today for Childers, so I won't be able to vote in the runoff.

Ah, in that case, Cochran is likely screwed.

Hopefully he'll at least take a few pounds of flesh from McDaniel on his way out.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AOS project McDaniel 49.78%, Cochran 48.61%.

If that's true, that's called runoff territory.

Palazzo won 50-43 in MS-4.

[GaussLaw]

If it goes to a runoff, will Dems/indies be able to vote in it?

Not if we didn't vote in it today. I voted in the Democratic primary today for Childers, so I won't be able to vote in the runoff.

Voting in the primary is a prerequisite to voting in the runoff?

What?

[rbt48]

Is Jeff Bell the same man who knocked out Clifford Case in NJ?  He must be getting up there in years!