The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[Senator Cris]

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Bad news for GOP. Miller is the right guy to be going. In fact he should be in the senate right now if not for that backstabbing (though tech legal) witch Murkowski.

[ElectionsGuy]

The referendum is now leading No.

34,893 (49) - 35,962 (51)

The real wildcard on the referendum is the Bush vote.  Little of it is in, and total votes cast there usually is little - but will matter big in a close race.  And I don't think people can even guess how the Bush will vote on the referendum.

At first I thought you meant people who voted for George W. Bush (lol), but now I realize you mean Northern Alaska and Native Alaskans. I think they'll lean yes on this, but you never know. They were probably the group that Obama gained the most in 2012 out of any demographic group in the country.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Bad news for GOP. Miller is the right guy to be going. In fact he should be in the senate right now if not for that backstabbing (though tech legal) witch Murkowski.

I thought the Christian right was against reality-altering substances.

[Senator Cris]

With 56% in, Sullivan leads Miller 40-33, with Treadwell at 24 and Jaramillo at 3.

[ElectionsGuy]

No - 53,550 (51.0%)
Yes - 51,484 (49.0%)

On Ballot Measure 1 with 56%.

[cinyc]

At first I thought you meant people who voted for George W. Bush (lol), but now I realize you mean Northern Alaska and Native Alaskans. I think they'll lean yes on this, but you never know. They were probably the group that Obama gained the most in 2012 out of any demographic group in the country.

I think it's hard to predict.  HD40, which includes the North Slope where Alaska gets most of its oil from, might be inclined to vote no to try to keep and expand oil exploration in Alaska and keep getting royalties for the borough.  The rest of the Bush HDs (37-39 and 6) are more of a wild card.

[Senator Cris]

67% in. Sullivan expands lead, now 40% to 32%. Treadwell at 25%, Jaramillo 3%.

Measure 1 with 67% in.

No - 63,239 (51,4%)
Yes - 58,879 (48,6%)

[cinyc]

New dump of around 50 precincts.  Sullivan and No slightly increase their leads:

US SENATOR (R)    REP    
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       295    66.9%
Times Counted       75301/494900    15.2%
Total Votes       74031    
Jaramillo, John M.    REP    2114    2.86%
Miller, Joe    REP    23818    32.17%
Sullivan, Dan    REP    29629    40.02%
Treadwell, Mead    REP    18470    24.95%

MEASURE NO. 1 - 13SB21       
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       295    66.9%
Times Counted       125217/494900    25.3%
Total Votes       123118    
YES       59879    48.64%
NO       63239    51.36%

[cinyc]

With 74% in, Sullivan and No again slightly increase their leads.  I'm surprised that the AP hasn't called the Republican Senate race for Sullivan.  Practically everything that's out is from rural Bush areas that don't have many votes, let alone Republican votes. 

US SENATOR (R)    REP    
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       328    74.4%
Times Counted       83349/494900    16.8%
Total Votes       81953    
Jaramillo, John M.    REP    2376    2.90%
Miller, Joe    REP    26075    31.82%
Sullivan, Dan    REP    32940    40.19%
Treadwell, Mead    REP    20562    25.09%

MEASURE NO. 1 - 13SB21       
      Total
Number of Precincts       441    
Precincts Reporting       328    74.4%
Times Counted       138303/494900    27.9%
Total Votes       136014    
YES       65485    48.15%
NO       70529    51.85%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Alaskan Republicans must really like the name Dan Sullivan.

[ElectionsGuy]

99% in, and the final margin seems to be 40-32-25 Sullivan-Miller-Treadwell.

On the referendum, its 52.2% No, 47.8% Yes. No call, but its pretty much defeated.

[solarstorm]

Alaskan Republicans must really like the name Dan Sullivan.

Yeah. Kelly Wolf didn't stand any chance of winning against such a name.

[Free Bird]

Surprised Miller did so well

[Maxwell]

This will be a tougher race for Begich to win now. Sullivan is the strongest general election candidate in my mind.

Miller's strong performance is pretty incredible considering the lack of funds he had and his incredibly weak level of advertising. If he had even close to the money Sullivan had, he would be wiping the floor with both of them. And Treadwell's performance is pretty embarrassing, not even close to what I was expecting him to do.

[solarstorm]

Was the Alaskan primary an open one?
I could imagine that many Democrats cast a ballot for Miller.

[IceSpear]

Surprised Miller did so well

He clearly had the momentum in the past week. Sadly it wasn't enough.

[Miles]

Was the Alaskan primary an open one?
I could imagine that many Democrats cast a ballot for Miller.

AK is a bit unique in that R primaries are closed and D's are open. I guess the closed primary is why Miller was able to win the first place in 2010.

[solarstorm]

Was the Alaskan primary an open one?
I could imagine that many Democrats cast a ballot for Miller.

AK is a bit unique in that R primaries are closed and D's are open. I guess the closed primary is why Miller was able to win the first place in 2010.

Interesting list.

[cinyc]

AK is a bit unique in that R primaries are closed and D's are open. I guess the closed primary is why Miller was able to win the first place in 2010.

That website is wrong.  Alaska Republican primaries are only semi-closed.  Unaffiliated and Nonpartisan voters can vote in the Republican primary.  Those registered in another party (like Democrats) cannot.  You do not have to be a registered Republican to vote in the primary.

Alaska Democratic primaries are totally open, though.

[cinyc]

Alaska Precinct Maps:
Statewide:


A Sullivan precinct win is indicated in blue.  Miller is in red.  Treadwell is in yellow.  All colors are gradated in 10-point increments using the Atlas Color Scale.  Deeper colors mean a larger winning percentage.  A Sullivan-Miller tie is in purple.  A Sullivan-Treadwell tie is in green.  A Miller-Treadwell tie is in orange.  4 precincts with no election day Republican primary votes are in grey.

Because Alaska is so large, the statewide map emphasizes Alaska's geographically large but sparsely populated Bush precincts.  Sullivan generally won precincts in the North Slope, and to a lesser extent, Northwest Arctic Borough.  Miller seems to have done best in rural precincts near his hometown of Fairbanks.  Treadwell won some precincts in the western part of the Bethel Census area in Southwestern Alaska. 

Zooming in on the state's more populated areas gives a better picture of how the race was won.

Anchorage:


Sullivan handily won much of the state's largest city, often taking more than 40% of the vote.  Treadwell also won a few precincts, largely on Democratic-friendly turf near Downtown Anchorage and in the ski community of Girdwood in far South Anchorage.  Miller took a few scattered Anchorage precincts as well, some by a narrow margin.

Matanuska-Susitna Borough:


The  exurban Mat-Su Valley was Miller's best area, providing him with large margins of victory in many precincts.  Miller did best in the areas around Sarah Palin's home town of Wasilla.  Sullivan did make some inroads in the Palmer area as well as in the area around Talkeetna, which is used as a staging area for expeditions to Mt. McKinnley.

Fairbanks:


Surprisingly, Joe Miller's home town of Fairbanks wasn't reliable Miller territory.  Sullivan actually won most precincts near downtown Fairbanks.  Miller's best areas were around (but not including) North Pole and the Fort Wainwright and Eielison military bases, which have few election day voters.

Southeast Alaska:


Although the map doesn't seem to show it, the Southeast Alaska panhandle was reliable Sullivan territory.  Sullivan easily won every precinct in the state capital of Juneau, and took most other heavily-populated areas.  The Southeastern Alaska precincts that Miller won were generally sparsely populated, with the exception of the fishing town of Petersburg and a precinct near the southernmost Alaskan city of Ketchikan - both of which, Miller only narrowly won.

Kenai Peninsula:


Results on the Kenai Peninsula south of Anchorage were a mixed bag, with Sullivan and Miller splitting precincts near the largest town of Kenai and Miller taking areas in and around the smaller towns of Homer and Seward.  Sullivan scored narrow victories in the northern and Kenai House Districts, 29 and 30.  Miller handily won the Homer House District 31.

[Tender Branson]

AZ results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/AZ_Page_0826.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

FL results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/FL_Page_0826.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

OK results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/OK_Page_0826.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

VT results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/VT_Page_0826.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Poll Closing Times:

VT: 7 PM EST
FL: Most of state closes at 7 PM EST, panhandle closes at 8 PM EST
OK: 8 PM EST
AZ: Polls close at 9, but there is a state law prohibiting release of any election results until an hour after the polls close, which effectively makes AZ feel a 10 PM EST closing state in terms of results-watching. After 10, results should come in quite quickly.

List of key contested primaries:
AZ U.S. House: District 1 GOP, District 2 GOP, District 7 DEM, District 8 GOP, District 9 GOP
FL U.S. House: District 1 GOP, Districts 3-5 GOP, District 7 GOP, District 9 DEM, District 9 GOP, District 10 DEM, District 18 GOP, District 20 DEM, District 21 DEM, District 22 GOP, District 23 GOP, District 24 DEM, District 26 GOP
VT U.S. House: District 1 GOP
Governor primaries: AZ Gov R, FL Gov D and R, VT Gov D and R

List of OK runoffs (runoffs will be held for at least one party in all of the following offices):
State House Districts: 29, 38, 43, 61, 65, 69, 88, 89, 99
State Senate Districts: 8, 22, 40
Superintendent
U.S. House District 5
U.S. Senate Special

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I'm casting my first vote on Tuesday! I'll be voting for Scott in the GOP primary, David Wagie in the House primary, and a few school board candidates and judges.

[ElectionsGuy]

Its a little early to be talking about Massachusetts, but out of 9 house seats, republicans are only contesting 3 of them.