The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[IceSpear]

Alameel now leading Rogers 55-19 with 65% in.

Not that it matters anymore.

[IceSpear]

This lady won the GOP Primary in IL-09.

https://twitter.com/SusanneAtanus

I don't see a way that Schakowsky didn't mobilize people to get this lady nominated.

Good lord.

Why does the Republican Party exist again?

[IceSpear]

I wonder what a Purdue vs. Kingston runoff will look like. I'd imagine Purdue will be slamming Kingston as a Washington insider, but what will Kingston's strategy be?

[IceSpear]

Here's a map

Still a small number of precincts out in Kentucky though, so if there are any really close counties you may have to resubmit your map once it's 100% in instead of 99% in (which will probably happen in about 6-9 hours. The last few precincts in any state are REALLY slow).

AP now has 100% reporting.

[IceSpear]

John Walsh should win the Montana primary, but it would be fascinating to see the margin.

I forgot he even still had a primary. Nobody has even bothered to poll it.

[IceSpear]

AP calls NJ-03 for MacArthur.

Steve Lolnegan

[IceSpear]

SD-Sen has been called for Rounds, but with 1/3 in, he's at a rather middling 58%.

[IceSpear]

AL-Gov (D) has been called for turncoat Parker Griffith.

I get that the other guy was a complete nobody, but even a complete nobody is better than Parker Griffith. Why, AL Dems?

[IceSpear]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

[IceSpear]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Probably. But Mourdock was favored as well. Considering McDaniel is a racist neoconfederate, I'd say chances are pretty high he will make an Akin/Mourdock gaffe.

[IceSpear]

I'll just say, no matter who wins tonight (or if it goes to a runoff), Thad Cochran is the Richard Lugar of 2014.

And hopefully Travis Childers will be the Joe Donnelly of 2014.

Are you accounting for Mississippi being one of the most inelastic Republican states in the nation? McDaniel will probably still win if he is the nominee.

Probably. But Mourdock was favored as well. Considering McDaniel is a racist neoconfederate, I'd say chances are pretty high he will make an Akin/Mourdock gaffe.

Well, it is possible that both Akin and Mourdock could have won in Mississippi. That wouldn't be a good thing by any stretch, but still...

Yeah, I'm not saying I think Childers has a GREAT chance or anything, clearly Donnelly and McCaskill had much easier roads than he will. But there is a possibility.

[IceSpear]

Also, if it ends up being a runoff, Cochran is going to throw everything besides the kitchen sink at McDaniel, and vice versa. It's going to get ugly. This will help Childers.

[IceSpear]

Orly Taitz is only at 3% in the CA Attorney General race. Hopefully she sues the state and every candidate for election fraud.

[IceSpear]

If it goes to a runoff, will Dems/indies be able to vote in it?

[IceSpear]

If it goes to a runoff, will Dems/indies be able to vote in it?

Not if we didn't vote in it today. I voted in the Democratic primary today for Childers, so I won't be able to vote in the runoff.

Ah, in that case, Cochran is likely screwed.

Hopefully he'll at least take a few pounds of flesh from McDaniel on his way out.

[IceSpear]

Joe Baca continues to haunt the Democratic Party.

[IceSpear]

From the primary turnout numbers on the R and D sides, I'm not really confident that Childers could come even close to a win in the GE, even with McDaniel as the R nominee ...

There was a hotly contested primary on the R side and nothing on the D side.

Missouri 2012:
Claire McCaskill - 289,481
All Republicans - 603,120

Indiana 2012:
Joe Donnelly - 207,715
All Republicans - 661,606

[IceSpear]

From the primary turnout numbers on the R and D sides, I'm not really confident that Childers could come even close to a win in the GE, even with McDaniel as the R nominee ...

There was a hotly contested primary on the R side and nothing on the D side.

Missouri 2012:
Claire McCaskill - 289,481
All Republicans - 603,120

Indiana 2012:
Joe Donnelly - 207,715
All Republicans - 661,606

Of course, but the turnout in midterms is quite a bit lower than in GE and it's also not guaranteed that McDaniel will have an Akin-like quote ...

I agree with you that midterm turnout dropoff will hurt Childers significantly. I'm just saying that the primary turnout means close to nothing due to the presence of an extremely competitive Republican primary as opposed to an already decided Democratic one.

[IceSpear]

Also, to any people who know Mississippi: What the hell happened in Wilkinson County? It's the only county Childers lost, and not only that, he's in last place there. And the guy in last place overall leads there. WTF?

[IceSpear]

Also, to any people who know Mississippi: What the hell happened in Wilkinson County? It's the only county Childers lost, and not only that, he's in last place there. And the guy in last place overall leads there. WTF?

Good catch.  There has to be an error there.  The third Republican, who is receiving 1.6% of the vote statewide, supposedly received 25% of the vote in Wilkinson County.  Also, turnout in the Republican primary is supposedly running 50% of 2012, which is unheard of in most other counties, where turnout equals or exceeds 2012.

Luckily, the county is tiny (286 Republican voters in 2012) and the error won't affect the totals much.

I was using the map here:

http://www.clarionledger.com/longform/news/2014/06/03/mississippi-congressional-election-results/9925563/

It sticks out like a sore thumb. I'm assuming either the voters or the vote counters there are on something.

[IceSpear]

R+3 CA-25 just became safe R thanks to the idiotic top two system. Yup, 2 Republicans on the November ballot.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/25/

I doubt Dems would've had a very good chance anyway in a midterm year, considering the combined GOP vote there is ~65%. CA-31 would've been the true kick in the nuts.

[IceSpear]

Gillespie has been nominated as the Pub candidate in VA-SEN. Awaiting the breathless Politico article on how this will be competitive.

"Gillespie has moderate views on immigration and could connect well with the African American and the Latino communities. Ed Gillespie shouldn't be underestimated, especially because he easily raises funds. Mark Warner, despite being a former popular virginia governor, could face a backlash with the growing disapproval of the Obama administration (the recent scandal, with a guy who has a name I don't recall), and the actions that could do Terry Mcauliffe, like expanding Medicaid without the consent of the the VA assembly could hurt Mark Warner as well.Ed Gillespie is definitely a strong candidate and shouldn't be counted out. He supports same sex marriage as well.
That's why we're moving the VA senate race into the Lean Dem column"

Right on schedule.

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Wow, this was the first sentence? Politico has already outperformed my expectations.

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Ugh, never mind. There can't be 60 "deciding votes" for a piece of legislation, and this talking point has already been debunked time and time again. If anyone was the deciding vote it was Ben Nelson, since he was the final holdout.

[IceSpear]

5% in in VA-07, Brat ahead of Cantor 66-34 percent

Probably won't hold, but how amazing would it be to see Cantor go down?

[IceSpear]

Wasserman just said he doesn't see how Cantor can make this up, and it would be the biggest House upset he's ever seen. If it holds... Jesus F. Christ.

Makes this article pretty funny in retrospect

[quote]A conservative challenger is expected to fall far short of defeating House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) in Tuesday’s congressional primary. Disorganization and poor funding have stymied the campaign of tea party activist David Brat, even as he tapped into conservative resentment toward a party leader who has been courting the Republican right for years.

Brat, an economics professor, simply failed to show up to D.C. meetings with powerful conservative agitators last month, citing upcoming finals. He only had $40,000 in the bank at the end of March, according to first quarter filings. Cantor had $2 million.

[IceSpear]

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An election between two professors at the same school, that's certainly interesting.