The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) (user search)
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  The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI) (search mode)
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Author Topic: The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)  (Read 146082 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: March 04, 2014, 05:25:38 AM »
« edited: August 28, 2014, 08:41:44 AM by Tender Branson »
With the TX primaries.

Here are all the Senate primaries, sorted chronologically:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G14/spaag

Here are all the Gubernatorial primaries, sorted chronologically:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G14/gpaag
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2014, 05:57:35 AM »
TX results for US Senate can be found here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/TX_US_Senate_0304.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

TX results for US House can be found here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/TX_US_House_0304.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2014, 06:02:28 AM »
I hope Maxey Scherr can win it somehow in the DEM Senate primary ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2014, 07:39:47 AM »
And as the season begins, a new WaPo poll shows that despite the fact that Democrats hold a lead on important issues, it's (not at all) translating into votes so far:

Quote
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: March 18, 2014, 08:56:43 AM »
IL primaries are today.

US Senate results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/IL_US_Senate_0318.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

US House results here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/IL_US_House_0318.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2014, 04:26:29 AM »
NC results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NC_US_Senate_0506.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NC_US_House_0506.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

OH results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/OH_US_House_0506.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

IN results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/IN_US_House_0506.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2014, 03:11:32 AM »
NE Senate results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NE_US_Senate_0513.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

NE House results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/NE_US_House_0513.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

WV Senate results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/WV_US_Senate_0513.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

WV House results:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/WV_US_House_0513.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2014, 05:44:11 AM »
May 20 primary results:

AR

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/AR_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

GA

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/GA_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

ID:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/ID_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

KY:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/KY_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

OR:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/OR_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

PA:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/PA_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2014, 05:40:19 AM »
My predictions:

GA: 33% Perdue, 21% Kingston, 20% Handel, 13% Gingrey, 12% Broun, 1% Others

KY: 62% McConnell, 36% Bevin, 2% Others
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2014, 01:05:38 AM »
All roughly as expected.

SurveyUSA showed that it is in good shape this year when it comes to polling ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2014, 02:43:34 AM »
June 3 results:

Alabama

California

Iowa

Mississippi

Montana

New Jersey

New Mexico

South Dakota
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: June 04, 2014, 12:55:12 AM »
Good to see that my prediction was almost 100% correct in MS:

I said 49-48 McDaniel, it's 50-49 now.

Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: June 04, 2014, 12:56:27 AM »
Also, good to see that the new voter-ID law runs smoothly:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hopefully all states implement a voter-ID law in the future.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: June 04, 2014, 01:08:32 AM »
The precincts that are left should cancel each other out, so McDaniel won't go above 50%.

Run-off.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: June 04, 2014, 01:19:56 AM »
From the primary turnout numbers on the R and D sides, I'm not really confident that Childers could come even close to a win in the GE, even with McDaniel as the R nominee ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: June 04, 2014, 01:27:15 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on June 04, 2014, 01:23:55 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on June 04, 2014, 01:19:56 AM
From the primary turnout numbers on the R and D sides, I'm not really confident that Childers could come even close to a win in the GE, even with McDaniel as the R nominee ...

There was a hotly contested primary on the R side and nothing on the D side.

Missouri 2012:
Claire McCaskill - 289,481
All Republicans - 603,120

Indiana 2012:
Joe Donnelly - 207,715
All Republicans - 661,606

Of course, but the turnout in midterms is quite a bit lower than in GE and it's also not guaranteed that McDaniel will have an Akin-like quote ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: June 04, 2014, 01:29:50 AM »
A little more of Rankin just came in:

McDaniel down to 49.57%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: June 04, 2014, 01:39:15 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on June 04, 2014, 01:33:39 AM
Also, to any people who know Mississippi: What the hell happened in Wilkinson County? It's the only county Childers lost, and not only that, he's in last place there. And the guy in last place overall leads there. WTF?

Maybe the home county of this guy ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2014, 01:47:54 AM »
June 10 results:

Arkansas

Maine

Nevada

North Dakota

South Carolina

Virginia
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #19 on: June 06, 2014, 02:15:40 AM »

Looks like the only "interesting" thing next week is who wins NV-Gov. on the DEM side and the SC races.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #20 on: June 15, 2014, 09:21:08 AM »
June 24 results:

Colorado

FL-19

Maryland

Mississippi

New York

Oklahoma

South Carolina

Utah
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2014, 05:08:57 AM »

Nope.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #22 on: June 22, 2014, 01:30:20 AM »
My predictions:

MS: 52% Cochran, 48% McDaniel

OK: 47% Lankford*, 45% Shannon*, 4% Brogdon, 4% Others (* = runoff)

FL-19: 68% Clawson (R), 27% Freeman (D), 5% Lib. guy
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #23 on: June 25, 2014, 01:29:39 AM »
Good to see that Cochran has won after all.

Better a Sen. Cochran than a Tea Party fanatic McDaniel, because Childers would have lost anyway.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,156
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #24 on: June 25, 2014, 01:31:34 AM »
Oh man, what happened in OK with Shannon ?

Bradley-effect or was Lankford just the much stronger candidate in the finish or seen as more experienced ?

Polls showed Lankford+8 at best and he won by 20+
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