The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[Del Tachi]

Yay!

The first interesting primaries of the season

[Del Tachi]

KY:  McConnell wins 63/35 over Bevin.

GA:  Perdue and Kingston head to the runoff. 

[Del Tachi]

If we get a Perdue/Kingston race (which seems to be very likely), then it will be interesting to see if an Atlanta vs. "Real Georgia" dynamic emerges.  I like campaigns with regional cleavages

[Del Tachi]

Interesting primary.

Now all we have to do is wait two years and then, when Isakson retires, we get to see it happen all over again! 

[Del Tachi]

I'd like to see Perdue win this year and Kingston in 2016.

I was thinking the same thing.

Except, I'd like Kingston this year and Perdue in 2016

[Del Tachi]

25% in for DeSoto county (neutral area) and McDaniel up 62-36.

Yes, the next five precincts came in, and they went 2-1 for McDaniel, rather than a tad below  3-2 for the first five, with 29 left to go in DeSoto. It's ugly up there. Cochran needs to carry Rankin to win this tonight probably.

Stop being a drama-llama.  Hinds County alone appears to be more than cancelling-out DeSoto.

[Del Tachi]

25% in for DeSoto county (neutral area) and McDaniel up 62-36.

Yes, the next five precincts came in, and they went 2-1 for McDaniel, rather than a tad below  3-2 for the first five, with 29 left to go in DeSoto. It's ugly up there. Cochran needs to carry Rankin to win this tonight probably.

Stop being a drama-llama.  Hinds County alone appears to be more than cancelling-out DeSoto.

Hinds is over 3/4 in already, though - DeSoto has less than half.

Less than half of precincts - not votes. 

And will still have to factor in that Cochran probably wins 52-56% in Rankin County, and that the precincts outstanding in DeSoto are probably more friendly to Cochran than the ones that have reported thus far. 

And Thad's also crushing-it in Madison County. 

[Del Tachi]

I think we're almost to the point where an outright McDaniel win tonight is highly unlikely - the best McD can realistically hope for at this point is a run-off.  

[Del Tachi]

Guys, looking at the county map it appears that the area right North of Mississippi's coastal counties is uber-pro-McDaniel.  According to region maps this is still considered the "coastal" region of Mississippi, so why is Cochran (and other establishment GOPers) so weak here?

I've always considered these places more like the Pine Belt than the Coast.  It makes sense to me that McDaniel would post large margins here. 

Most populous county in the north with still no results is Pontotoc, which should post a pretty solid margin for Cochran - he was born there. 

[Del Tachi]

Guys, looking at the county map it appears that the area right North of Mississippi's coastal counties is uber-pro-McDaniel.  According to region maps this is still considered the "coastal" region of Mississippi, so why is Cochran (and other establishment GOPers) so weak here?

I've always considered these places more like the Pine Belt than the Coast.  It makes sense to me that McDaniel would post large margins here. 

Most populous county in the north with still no results is Pontotoc, which should post a pretty solid margin for Cochran - he was born there. 

That's the odd thing though; it appears that Cochran's doing fine in the pine belt based on the region maps I see since the map looks like Pine Belt begins around Jasper County and goes North, and Cochran dominates the central to northern region of the Pine Belt.  Gingrich, the "anti-establishment" 2014 candidate, also did really well in Southern Pine Belt/Northern coastal region, but not in central to northern pine belt.  Is there a reason for this "redneck rectangle"(in jest) of green counties on the NYT map? I get McDaniel lives there, but the pattern seems to have lasted longer than that.

Its the most white trash part of the state.  Also, I've never defined the Pine Belt to be anything much west of Jeff Davis County.  Southwest Mississippi is its own thing. 

Once again, I'd like to point out that I predicted this general outcome back in December. 

A lot of the vote is still out in Starkville and Oxford, should be good for Cochran. 

[Del Tachi]

And by the way...

WTF happened in the Wilkinson County Democratic primary?

[Del Tachi]

No more votes out in DeSoto County and McDaniel's at 49.9%.

Rankin will be decisive, but don't underestimate the importance of the remaining vote in Warren, Pontotoc, Lafayette, and Oktibbeha County.  

[Del Tachi]

Warren County flips to Thad with 32% in, no new numbers in Rankin, Lafayette or Pontotoc.  Monroe County could also be a sleeper for Cochran.

And 25% is still out in Hinds

[Del Tachi]

This is why McDaniel leads overall while only carrying CD4:

I wonder why the SIG didn't do a map showing the size of the difference of votes between the two candidates.  Much would be appreciated if they did.

[Del Tachi]

Forrest, Madison and Oktibbeha counties with updated numbers shrinks McDaniel's lead to 1,362.  

If there are 3,000 votes outstanding, Cochran needs about 73% of them to pull into the lead.  Definitely possible, since Hinds was one of his best counties and whatever these new numbers are, they are typically coming in more pro-Cochran than the county average.

If Cochran does manage to pull back into the lead, that would be especially embarrassing for Club for Growth who called on Cochran to drop-out this morning.

I could see the MS Conservative PAC ad now:

"Club for Growth called on Thad Cochran to drop-out of the election even though more Mississippians voted for him than Chris McDaniel.  Don't sell Mississippi's senate seat to these outside groups...blah, blah, blah"

[Del Tachi]

R+3 CA-25 just became safe R thanks to the idiotic top two system. Yup, 2 Republicans on the November ballot.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/25/

Maybe that's a more democratic system considering that the primary vote was almost 65% Republican-leaning.  

[Del Tachi]

Lol at turnout going up in Jones County and Cochran being the beneficiary

[Del Tachi]

Whew! 95%, and back out of recount territory. 50.4 to 49.6. 2,400 vote difference.

There aren't recount laws in MS.

Well, in that case, McDaniel is the sort of person who would take this to court.

Mississippi judges are not a very pro-McDaniel contingency.

[Del Tachi]

Can we now all agree that Mississippi is a massive Freedom State?

[Del Tachi]

Wow.  Perdue's looking quite nice from the early returns.

If he could somehow pull this out then that makes be 2/2 in GOP Senate runoff predictions, and I would have been going against the conventional wisdom both times.  

[Del Tachi]

Why is Perdue doing so well in North Georgia?  Isn't it the most conservative part of the state?  Why is Kingston not doing better there given his Tea Party-backed campaign?

[Del Tachi]

I'm predicting that Roberts will pull this off, but by a somewhat smaller margin by we're expecting - somewhere around 54-44. 

[Del Tachi]

My prediction:

Alexander, 49%
Carr, 44%
Others, 7%

Unlike most Southern states, Tennessee has no runoffs so that should help Alexander.