Crimean status referendum: March 16, 2014

[ag]

Anyone know what the Russian word for Anschluss is?

According to Google Translate:  подключение

подключение means "Anschluss" in the sense of the connection to e.g a telephone network
The "Anschluss", the (forced) merger of one state/territory with an other, if I may say so, is присоединение, says at least my German-Russian dictionary.

Russians used to say "Anshljuss". Of course, this is not Kremlinly politically correct here

Присоединение in this context would have a slightly negative connotation, as it presupposes that they had never been together before. I am pretty sure, they are going to use воссоединение, "reunification". And that is, in fact, what they put on the "ballot".

[ag]

The result of this referendum certainly seems like a foregone conclusion, although it appears now that the impetus to hold it might be coming from Simferopol rather than from Moscow.

     In that case, what would the political ramifications be if it somehow fails? Would it faze the Crimean government?

What would happen if tomorrow Putin were to convert to Buddhism and retire to a monastery near Lhasa to spend the rest of his life meditating? Because that is, certainly, more in the realm of the possible.

The "referendum" will be run WITHOUT a voter list, with more ballots printed then there are voters in the peninsula, under control of the occupying forces and, almost certainly, boycotted by pretty much everybody, who disagrees with Russian annexation. Any questions?

[ag]

The West should only reject this illegal secession if it rejects the other illegal secession it supported six years ago. Russia should also be morally consistent.

It is sorrowful, that condemning Kosovo and worshiping Milosevic has become token of progressism in modern America.

I have not done the latter. The situations in Kosovo and Crimea are clearly parallel, anyway, just switching out one rotten imperial power (the US/NATO) for another (Russia).

I did not know Crimean kids have spent the last 10 years going to underground Russian schools, nor that all the local policemen have been replaced long ago with those from Lviv, nor that all Russian-speaking public sector employees have been fired 10 years back, etc., etc. Nor has it come to my notice that hundreds of thousands of refugees from the main urban centers have been fleeing an ethnic purge. Since you insist on the parallelism here, I guess, you have seen evidence to all of that. Where are you getting that info, if you do not mind me asking? 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Insofar as both secessions were illegal under international law and protected by imperial powers/power blocs.

(ftr I have you on ignore)

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Insofar as both secessions were illegal under international law and protected by imperial powers/power blocs.

(ftr I have you on ignore)

Snowstalker having someone on ignore... Yikes.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Court_of_Justice_advisory_opinion_on_Kosovo%27s_declaration_of_independence

So by that logic I have to agree with Citizens United too?

[ag]

Insofar as both secessions were illegal under international law and protected by imperial powers/power blocs.

(ftr I have you on ignore)

Snowstalker having someone on ignore... Yikes.

That is an honor

[Associate Justice PiT]

The result of this referendum certainly seems like a foregone conclusion, although it appears now that the impetus to hold it might be coming from Simferopol rather than from Moscow.

     In that case, what would the political ramifications be if it somehow fails? Would it faze the Crimean government?

What would happen if tomorrow Putin were to convert to Buddhism and retire to a monastery near Lhasa to spend the rest of his life meditating? Because that is, certainly, more in the realm of the possible.

The "referendum" will be run WITHOUT a voter list, with more ballots printed then there are voters in the peninsula, under control of the occupying forces and, almost certainly, boycotted by pretty much everybody, who disagrees with Russian annexation. Any questions?

     Buddhist Putin sounds like an interesting possibility for a timeline, and I don't normally dabble in those. But I see what you mean. It is that sort of a foregone conclusion.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The West should only reject this illegal secession if it rejects the other illegal secession it supported six years ago. Russia should also be morally consistent.

This is not a secession, it is an annexation.

Kosovo wasn't incorporated into the United States as a Territory.

[YL]

Apparently this is a poster from the "referendum" campaign:



(from CBS News's Elizabeth Palmer on Twitter)

[Meeker]

Godwin's law applies to geopolitics as well

[Citizen Hats]

The West should only reject this illegal secession if it rejects the other illegal secession it supported six years ago. Russia should also be morally consistent.

It is sorrowful, that condemning Kosovo and worshiping Milosevic has become token of progressism in modern America.

I have not done the latter. The situations in Kosovo and Crimea are clearly parallel, anyway, just switching out one rotten imperial power (the US/NATO) for another (Russia).

Only if you are silly enough to take everything that the Kremlin is saying about Crimea at face value.  Kosovo was a textbook example of a remedial secession in a region which was separated from the prior state by an international force to prevent an ethnic cleansing. A government elected under international  supervision then chose to issue a UDI ten years after the initial separation

[SteveRogers]

There is only one rule in Russian elections: Vladmir Putin always wins.

[njwes]

"International law" is only for weak states with little or no power on the world stage. The talk of what is "legal" or "illegal," both in the case of Kosovo and Crimea, is silly, asinine even.

[Zanas]

"International law" is only for weak states with little or no power on the world stage. The talk of what is "legal" or "illegal," both in the case of Kosovo and Crimea, is silly, asinine even.

This statement is not utterly and entirely untrue and moronic.

[YL]

Shaun Walker of the Guardian reports from a press conference given by "international observers" (including a Jobbik MEP -- weren't the fascists supposed to be on the Ukrainian side...):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[ObserverIE]

Shaun Walker of the Guardian reports from a press conference given by "international observers" (including a Jobbik MEP -- weren't the fascists supposed to be on the Ukrainian side...):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"Political rants against US hegemony in the world" seem to be as popular on the crackpot right (RTÉ news this evening featured another "election observer" from Vlaams Blok Belang) as they are on the crackpot left.

When you think about it, the mixture of authoritarianism, gangster capitalism and social conservatism practised by Putin (Stolypin Mark II?) should be extremely attractive to the sort of curdled right-wingers that gravitate towards UKIP or the PVV. Enoch Powell had an extremely soft spot towards Russia from what I recall.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Apparently this is a poster from the "referendum" campaign:



(from CBS News's Elizabeth Palmer on Twitter)

I'm sure the Crimean Tartars have fond memories of being falsely accused of being Nazis and being sent to the gulags, where something like half died. Accusing ethnic minorities in Crimea of being Nazis makes you almost as bad as the Nazis.

[njwes]

"International law" is only for weak states with little or no power on the world stage. The talk of what is "legal" or "illegal," both in the case of Kosovo and Crimea, is silly, asinine even.

This statement is not utterly and entirely untrue and moronic.

I suppose I'll take this as a compliment ;p

In addition to contrarian articles from right-wing sources, I've been noticing more and more articles in this vein on leftist websites: http://www.salon.com/2014/03/12/propaganda_lies_and_the_new_york_times_everything_you_really_need_to_know_about_ukraine/

Reports this morning are that apparently the voting booths in Crimea are decorated the colors of the Russian flag; the Russkis could have at least tried to make this seem a bit more legit

Edit: Or it could just be the colors of the Crimean flag

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 5pm local time was ca. 70%

http://referendum2014.ru/news/na-17-00-yavka-sostavila-70.html

Polls are open until 8pm.

So, probably 75-80% turnout (which is to be expected in these kinds of referendums).

[Antonio the Sixth]

How likely is it that a good deal of ballot stuffing explains some of this high turnout?

[Tender Branson]

Look here for info and results (First exit polls at 20pm local time, results at 22.30pm):

http://en.c-inform.info

BTW: Fabrizio Bertot, a member of the European Parliament from the EPP (Conservatives), who observes the elections in Crimea, told media that the election looks like elections in Italy and that he has seen no irregularities.

(some Western media outfits have reported on the glass boxes where voters throw their ballots into as being "not fair").

I don't see much of a problem with this, because people can vote in voting booths, then fold their ballots once or twice and nobody sees who they voted.

[Tender Branson]

How likely is it that a good deal of ballot stuffing explains some of this high turnout?

Unlikely, I think that it's more the "excitement" of the ethnical Russians in Crimea that drives them to the polls.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

Voting option A) 69.1% (+/- 3%)
Voting option B) 30.9%

Turnout: 78% (+/- 3%)

[Tender Branson]

Some pictures from the BBC:





http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26598832

There's probably not even the slightest need to rig this or stuff ballots, if the Russians flock to the polls and well, you know how they will vote ...