Crimean status referendum: March 16, 2014

[ag]

Actually, a few things. The representatives of the Tatar community that the Western media always hear do not represent the entirety of said community. From the figures, I'm guessing a not negligible number of them actually voted in favor of joining Russia.

The easiest explanation, that does not require assuming some of the Tartars voted, is that one could vote without being a local. There are substantial numbers of Russian soldiers and "visitors" there - and they are known to have voted. The total number of voters in Sebastopol exceeds the number of residents - not registered voters, not those of voting age, but of all residents - who had been known to live there.

Yes, there are some Tartars that are ok with the annexation. And some Jews in France vote National Front, probably. And you can even, most likely, find a gay black guy in Manhattan who is a Republican.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Does anyone know what the 2010 presidential election results would have been without Crimea's votes?

[ag]

We need to rejoin Vilnius region with the Motherland.

Oh, they will take care of it. And Варшава as well, while they are at it.

[ag]

Does anyone know what the 2010 presidential election results would have been without Crimea's votes?

Yanukovich would still have one - by about 92 thousand votes out of about 23 mln. cast

[Zuza]

The total number of voters in Sebastopol exceeds the number of residents - not registered voters, not those of voting age, but of all residents - who had been known to live there.

No, it's not true (obviously, even if results are totally rigged, those who held and rigged referendum aren't totally dumb). Official number is 274 thousands (89.5% of total voters). But one of referendum organizers mistakenly declared that 474 thousands voted (or journalists misheard him - and then spread his statement).

[ag]

The total number of voters in Sebastopol exceeds the number of residents - not registered voters, not those of voting age, but of all residents - who had been known to live there.

No, it's not true (obviously, even if results are totally rigged, those who held and rigged referendum aren't totally dumb). Official number is 274 thousands (89.5% of total voters). But one of referendum organizers mistakenly declared that 474 thousands voted (or journalists misheard him - and then spread his statement).

Sorry, my bad, didn´t check.

Anyway, at the last (heavily contested) parliamentary election in Ukraine in 2012 they had just under 146 thousand valid votes in Sebastopol (of which just over 10 thousand votes were for Batkivshchina and UDAR candidates - outright Western parties, with no chances locally). More people showed up for the presidential second round in 2010: including spoiled ballots and such they had just over 211 thousand votes (of which just under 22 thousand were for Timoshenko).

At the same (2010) presidential election in Crimea (without Sebastopol) there were just under 1,050 thousand votes (including spoiled ballots and such). Of these just under 182 thousand were for Timoshenko.

[Sol]

Yes, there are some Tartars that are ok with the annexation. And some Jews in France vote National Front, probably. And you can even, most likely, find a gay black guy in Manhattan who is a Republican.

Actually, Manhattan probably has the most black gays of anywhere.

[ag]

Yes, there are some Tartars that are ok with the annexation. And some Jews in France vote National Front, probably. And you can even, most likely, find a gay black guy in Manhattan who is a Republican.

Actually, Manhattan probably has the most black gays of anywhere.

Of course. And how many of those are Republican?

[BaldEagle1991]

Is there map results of the referendum? I'd like to see one small town voting No.

[Sol]

Yes, there are some Tartars that are ok with the annexation. And some Jews in France vote National Front, probably. And you can even, most likely, find a gay black guy in Manhattan who is a Republican.

Actually, Manhattan probably has the most black gays of anywhere.

Of course. And how many of those are Republican?

forgot the pubbie part

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yes, there are some Tartars that are ok with the annexation. And some Jews in France vote National Front, probably. And you can even, most likely, find a gay black guy in Manhattan who is a Republican.

Actually, Manhattan probably has the most black gays of anywhere.

Of course. And how many of those are Republican?

forgot the pubbie part

There's got to be like 1% who vote Republican because they make $600,000 a year and want lower taxes.

[Хahar 🤔]

Is there map results of the referendum? I'd like to see one small town voting No.

Wikipedia:

[Zuza]

Recently found this pre-referendum survey: http://avaazpress.s3.amazonaws.com/558_Crimea.Referendum.Poll.GfK.pdf.

What is interesting:
1. The younger age group, the lower number of those who self-identified as Ukrainians. This means that in Crimea Russians assimilate Ukrainians, not vice versa (not very surprising taking in mind overwhelming prevalence of Russian language and Russian culture).
2. However, in the oldest age group more people voted for joining with Russia, and if option "Leave status of Crimea the same as it was before February 2014" would be available, it would be more popular in the youngest age group and less popular in the oldest one. Nothing surprising too: elder people tend to be more nostalgic of Soviet past when Russia and Crimea were parts of a single country, and many of them were even born in Russia (then RSFSR) before Crimea was transferred to Ukraine, while those whom are 18-35 years were raised or even born in independent Ukraine and relatively larger number of them are ideologically liberal (i. e. pro-Western, pro-EU and critical of Russian political regime). And share of Crimean Tatars is very low in the oldest age group, it certainly contributed too.
3. Most of those who was polled were satisfied with only 2 voting options and believed that presence of Russian troops don't influence how freely people vote.
4. Results in Sevastopol, where Russian influence always was especially strong and Crimean Tatar population is negligible, aren't as different from other Crimea as I would expect. Difference between Simferopol and Sevastopol is less than a margin of error.

Unfortunately survey don't include data by age group, it would be especially interesting.