Illinois Gubernatorial Election 2014.

[muon2]

Some of the Central Eastern Wards and a few Northwest Wards are not as Dem as Chicago as a whole.

The 42nd Ward on that map is the Loop (what we call downtown) and River North with the expensive condos. The 43rd and 32nd Wards just to the north of that cover the tony neighborhood of Lincoln Park. Far NW and SW Chicago are home to many of the white city workers, since police, firefighters and many other city employees must live in the city. NW Chicago still is represented by a Pub in the IL House.

[CountyTy90]

I just saw that Oak Park was a Dem town. Geez I remember the show "The Hogan Family" in the 80's and the shows story line was based in if they lived in Oak Park, Illinois. I just had this vision that Oak Park was a Republican friendly town because of "The Hogan Family" show. I was looking at Wikipedia what's the town in Illinois that "The Hogan Family" lived in? I found it brought back some memories from the 80's for me.

Loved that show! I feel like it probably was more Republican friendly in the 80's than it is now (I was born in 1990, so just a guess...). Just look at the '88 election and the '12 election and just how much the burbs of Chicago (specifically DuPage and Lake counties) have swung to the Democrats. Astounding flip, really. And really hurt Republicans.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I just saw that Oak Park was a Dem town. Geez I remember the show "The Hogan Family" in the 80's and the shows story line was based in if they lived in Oak Park, Illinois. I just had this vision that Oak Park was a Republican friendly town because of "The Hogan Family" show. I was looking at Wikipedia what's the town in Illinois that "The Hogan Family" lived in? I found it brought back some memories from the 80's for me.

Two words: Bill Clinton.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

As badly as I hope for a Republican victory in Illinois, I just get that sinking feeling that the Quinn might just barely hold on, like Obama did in 2012.

It's very possible, but he also barely held on in 2010.  He's much weaker and less popular now than he was four years ago, and while the race is by no means a slam dunk for any Republican, I could see any of the four GOP candidates beating him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As badly as I hope for a Republican victory in Illinois, I just get that sinking feeling that the Quinn might just barely hold on, like Obama did in 2012.

It's very possible, but he also barely held on in 2010.  He's much weaker and less popular now than he was four years ago, and while the race is by no means a slam dunk for any Republican, I could see any of the four GOP candidates beating him.

Vallas who is the Lt Gov nominee, was praised by Dillard on doing a good job on CPS school system. Unlike Rauner, who wants state money not going to CPS, but parochial and charter schools.

[hopper]

Rauner isn't Sandoval, but more like Christie. He is a businessman who wants a flat tax instead of a fair tax and against birth control for women. Quinn wants a fair tax.

Little Egypt liked Blago cause he kept the flat tax like is. Unlike Burris, who was gonna increase taxes.

Christie was never a businessman he was always in the politics/law field. Christie never campaigned on a flat tax. He campaigned on cutting taxes across the board like Reagan did in his presidency. Christie isn't against birth control though he is pro-life. There is a difference.

Even Dems on Washington DC are against the fair tax because its regressive in that the rich get a tax cut. The Republicans in Washington DC are against it because they see it as a cash cow for the federal government.

[hopper]

I just saw that Oak Park was a Dem town. Geez I remember the show "The Hogan Family" in the 80's and the shows story line was based in if they lived in Oak Park, Illinois. I just had this vision that Oak Park was a Republican friendly town because of "The Hogan Family" show. I was looking at Wikipedia what's the town in Illinois that "The Hogan Family" lived in? I found it brought back some memories from the 80's for me.

Two words: Bill Clinton.

I could see Oak Park voting for Clinton, Gore and even Kerry maybe by a slight margin. Obama I could see them voting for the first time because its his home state but the second time in 2012 not so much(maybe by a slight margin.)

[muon2]

Rauner isn't Sandoval, but more like Christie. He is a businessman who wants a flat tax instead of a fair tax and against birth control for women. Quinn wants a fair tax.

Little Egypt liked Blago cause he kept the flat tax like is. Unlike Burris, who was gonna increase taxes.

Christie was never a businessman he was always in the politics/law field. Christie never campaigned on a flat tax. He campaigned on cutting taxes across the board like Reagan did in his presidency. Christie isn't against birth control though he is pro-life. There is a difference.

Even Dems on Washington DC are against the fair tax because its regressive in that the rich get a tax cut. The Republicans in Washington DC are against it because they see it as a cash cow for the federal government.

In IL "fair tax" is code for progressive income tax. This confuses many Illinoisans who are aware of the nation Fair Tax organization, not to mention those who don't live in IL.

[bluedogsam]

doesn't matter who the governor is in Illinois--the real boss of Illinois is Mike Madigan. believe me and i been here in Illinois all my life. the Repub party here in illinois is a joke. if Rauner does win the primary and go on to beat Quinn--he will have to deal with madigan.

[ill ind]

  It looks like Rauner will come out on top of the GOP heap tomorrow.  Lots of union support for Dillard though.  My wife is in the teachers' union and we have gotten several mailings with "Democrat, Republican, or Independent, be sure to ask for a Republican ballot and vote for Kirk Dillard."  It will not be anywhere near enough in what is appearing to be a low turnout election, however. 

  On the Democratic side, Tio Hardiman will carry a dozen or more downstate counties simply because his name isn't Pat Quinn.

  If it is Quinn vs Rauner, I look to the general as being one of the ugliest campaigns in the nation.

[Bojack Horseman]

I find this pretty surprising how Pat Quinn and Tom Corbett have pretty similar approval ratings, and yet Quinn may have a shot for re-election, but Corbett is dead in the water.

[IceSpear]

I find this pretty surprising how Pat Quinn and Tom Corbett have pretty similar approval ratings, and yet Quinn may have a shot for re-election, but Corbett is dead in the water.

I see Kansas and Illinois as sort of equivalent this year. These should be solid D/solid R races, but the deep unpopularity of the incumbent actually has them trailing in the polls. Still, they'll probably both pull through in the end.

[Mr. Illini]

Cross-posted from the other current Il-Gov thread:

Cook county's population is about half Chicago and half suburban townships. Growth since 2010 is only about 0.35%/year according to census estimates and is fairly evenly divided between city and townships, and no township stands out for high growth since it's all mostly built up. Thus, the 2010 precinct results are a fairly good place to start a forecast for 2014.

The Cook County Clerk put out a detailed report after the 2010 general election, and the maps of precinct results show the relative party strengths in the county. Here are the maps from both the Gov's race as well as Kirk's win for US Senate. The comparison between the two gives a sense of the difference between a narrow loss and narrow win for the Pub in a statewide race.

I know it sounds a little ridiculous, but the fact that Kirk won ANY neighborhoods in the city (as you can see, about 5 or so) is a testament to how well he did. Norwood Park is usually the only neighborhood that the GOP has a shot in. He even picked up a little blip near Lincoln Park, which isn't anywhere near the outskirts of the city.

[TX Conservative Dem]

If I were a betting person, Illinois statewide offices would look like this:
United States Senator -Durbin (D-incumbent)
Governor -Quinn (D-incumbent) for now.
Secretary of State -White (D-incumbent)
State Attorney General -Madigan (D-incumbent)
Comptroller -Topinka (R-incumbent)
State Treasurer -open: Democratic pick up

[Suburbia]

doesn't matter who the governor is in Illinois--the real boss of Illinois is Mike Madigan. believe me and i been here in Illinois all my life. the Repub party here in illinois is a joke. if Rauner does win the primary and go on to beat Quinn--he will have to deal with madigan.

You're right. Madigan runs the state, not the governor.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I find this pretty surprising how Pat Quinn and Tom Corbett have pretty similar approval ratings, and yet Quinn may have a shot for re-election, but Corbett is dead in the water.

I see Kansas and Illinois as sort of equivalent this year. These should be solid D/solid R races, but the deep unpopularity of the incumbent actually has them trailing in the polls. Still, they'll probably both pull through in the end.

Not necessarily.  Illinois is much closer at the state level than in presidential elections, while Kansas leans R across the board.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP wave is gonna net 5 new senate seats and isn't gonna be as big this year. 2010 was about corrupt Wallstreet and Ginnoulius poor banking Scandle. With a better senate candidate, Durbin, and House pickup in IL 13, although Dems preferred Madigan, the turnout won't be as low as the primary for Quinn..

[Mr. Illini]

The mud is already slinging. Not 24 hours after the primary, Quinn has already released his first attack ad on Rauner and the Democrats are already mobilizing.

Quinn's got a better shot than some would think because this state is home to one of the strongest and most centralized Democratic bases in the country.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kirk Dillard was the Mark Kirk of 2010. He would have won Suburban Cook and Dupage. Just like the Dems was cheated out of a runoff concerning Dan Hynes of 2010, this time the GOP was cheated and sunk their chances. Two candidate open primary needed (Ca style).

[Indy Texas]

I don't know much about Rauner but he seems like a dollar store Mitt Romney - the PE background and talking about how he's just a simple jerb creator.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Rauner also called for term limits.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kirk Dillard was the Mark Kirk of 2010. He would have won Suburban Cook and Dupage. Just like the Dems was cheated out of a runoff concerning Dan Hynes of 2010, this time the GOP was cheated and sunk their chances. Two candidate open primary needed (Ca style).

I'm pretty sure Mark Kirk was the Mark Kirk of 2010.

[Maxwell]

Quinn may be the luckiest man in politics if he makes it out against Rauner. While he's made some controversial statements, he's a better fit for Illinois than Brady.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kirk Dillard was the Mark Kirk of 2010. He would have won Suburban Cook and Dupage. Just like the Dems was cheated out of a runoff concerning Dan Hynes of 2010, this time the GOP was cheated and sunk their chances. Two candidate open primary needed (Ca style).

I'm pretty sure Mark Kirk was the Mark Kirk of 2010.

I was referring to himself making a big deal about Ginnoulius non military service. He will have to compete with either Quigley or Duckworth, who just like they are committed to Veteran affairs. Not active duty personnel.

Since he is now paralyzed.

[Mr. Illini]

Quinn's first attack ad on Rauner

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1QB3R0U36U