Illinois Gubernatorial Election 2014.

[Flake]

Governor Pat Quinn (D): 71.8%
Fmr. Dir. of CeaseFire Illinois Tio Hardiman (D): 28.2%

Businessman Bruce Rauner (R): 40.1%
State Sen. Kirk Dillard (R): 37.3%
State Sen. Bill Brady (R): 15.1%
Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford (R): 7.5%

I left the atlas key on the Illinois map since it would be confusing to read some numbers (like how Rutherford has either >50% or >20%).

The primary maps I posted on the 2014 election season thread

[muon2]

Governor Pat Quinn (D): 71.8%
Fmr. Dir. of CeaseFire Illinois Tio Hardiman (D): 28.2%

Businessman Bruce Rauner (R): 40.1%
State Sen. Kirk Dillard (R): 37.3%
State Sen. Bill Brady (R): 15.1%
Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford (R): 7.5%

I left the atlas key on the Illinois map since it would be confusing to read some numbers (like how Rutherford has either >50% or >20%).

The primary maps I posted on the 2014 election season thread

The two maps show the clear differences between the northern and southern parts of the state. The north is polarized between Quinn and Rauner, with voters more concerned with ideology and less about governance. The center and south doesn't show that polarization with governance the driving force witnessed by the votes for Dillard and "not Quinn".

[ill ind]

  If one breaks it down by CD, then one finds that in District 15 (Shimkus R) Hardiman won pretty handily by 8 points 54-46.  (I had to take the CD percentage of the total vote and multiply it by the county percentage between Quinn and Hardiman for Bond and Madison Counties as precinct level results aren't available yet--and this would help Quinn as CD 15's portion of Madison County is much more rural in character)

The raw vote would be Hardiman 10,611
                                            Quinn  9,069

Ill_Ind

[TX Conservative Dem]

I'll still have Quinn as the early favorite in November, but it's gonna be very close again.

He needs to win at least 37+ counties because in 2010, he only won just 3 out of 102 counties. 3 !

[Flake]

I'll still have Quinn as the early favorite in November, but it's gonna be very close again.

He needs to win at least 37+ counties because in 2010, he only won just 3 out of 102 counties. 3 !

If he won with four counties in 2010, he can win again with four counties in 2014.

Remember, counties do not equal votes, because some counties have much higher populations than other counties.

[henster]

Quinn can win with Cook County alone.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Didn't Blagojevich carry numerous counties in 2002 and 2006 ?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, but Blago's flat tax initiative, or not raising the income tax, earned him a lot of counties and he won by 10 pts. Quinn raised taxes. Quinn will compromise with the GOP in order to get his min wage hike. All he has to do, is do better in the collared counties around suburban Cook to win by 3.

[TX Conservative Dem]

10 point victory for Blagojevich in 2006 ? He should have won by at least 16 .

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He had the Scandle just beginning on fundraising fraud.

[TX Conservative Dem]

[CosmicDestiny]

I'm a bit surprised by the primary map.

Didn't Quinn outperform Obama in parts of deep-South Illinois?  I think there was even a county(Madison, I think?) that Quinn carried that Obama didn't in 2012. 

Did Quinn collapse in popularity in Little Egypt or something since 2010? 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Quinn had Sheila Simon on ticket. She helped in the prison areas in Little Egypt. Her dad, Paul Simon was from Carbondale. Vallas was picked solely on helping out in Suburban Cook not downstate.

[Franzl]

Didn't Quinn outperform Obama in parts of deep-South Illinois?  I think there was even a county(Madison, I think?) that Quinn carried that Obama didn't in 2012.  

Not a very good idea to compare a primary with a general election.

Quinn isn't going to win Madison County in November.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Didn't Quinn outperform Obama in parts of deep-South Illinois?  I think there was even a county(Madison, I think?) that Quinn carried that Obama didn't in 2012.  

Not a very good idea to compare a primary with a general election.

Quinn isn't going to win Madison County in November.

Although with a better nominee, Madigan would have done better in the College downstate areas, like Simon helped out Quinn, like Champaign.

[ill ind]

Didn't Quinn outperform Obama in parts of deep-South Illinois?  I think there was even a county(Madison, I think?) that Quinn carried that Obama didn't in 2012. 

Did Quinn collapse in popularity in Little Egypt or something since 2010? 


Quinn's 2010 results outperformed Obama's 2012 results in 12 counties: Calhoun,
Randolph, Perry, Franklin, Hamilton, Williamson, Saline, Gallatin, Union, Johnson, Pope, and Hardin.   
All except Hardin were carried by Tio Hardiman.

It's hard to explain, but alot of these counties vote Democratic on a local level, but then Republican on a State or Federal level.

Take for example Randolph County.  Even though it went GOP at the top in both 2010 and 2012, on Tuesday the 18th, 3,961 people voted Democratic and 2,425 voted Republican.  Hardiman won and the total vote for Governor was 3,202 representing a nearly 20% fall-off from the people actually voting Democratic versus those voting in the Democratic race for Governor.  However 3,958 out of 3,961 Democratic voters made a choice in the contested race for County Treasurer.
Same thing happenned in 2012, where in the primary 3,641 people voted Democratic, but only 2,490 for Obama representing a 32% drop-off in those voting Democrtic in a primary and those voting for the Democratic Presidential Candidate.

I guess what I'm getting at is that there are a whole lot of people in these counties who vote Democratic inthe primary solely for the local races, and then either skip the top race, or cast a protest vote as occurred this time.  There are a whole lot of county offices here controlled by the Dems despite the fact that the top of the ticket carried none of them in 2010 or 2012.

Ill_Ind

[ill ind]

  I guess in simpler terms, Southern Illinois votes alot like West Virginia.  Democratic for local county and legislative offices, but strong GOP for state and national offices.
  In May of 2012 180 thousand voted in the Democratic primary where Obama beat Keith Judd by a 59-41 majority, but only 112 thousand voted in the GOP primary.  A whole lot of those voters chose the Democratic ballot to vote for other local races, and then cast a protest vote against Obama.
  The same type of results that ocurred in W Va will occur in Southern Illinois.

Ill Ind

[TX Conservative Dem]

Didn't Obama carry over 70+ out of 102 counties during his 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns when he easily carried the Land of Lincoln?

When he was elected to the United States Senate in 2004, he carried like 96 out of 102 counties against Keyes.

[ill ind]

McCain carried 56 out of 102 Illinois counties in 2008--albeit ones without a whole lot of population.  Romney carried 79 out of 102 counties in 2012--again most without a whole lot of voters

Keyes carried 10 counties in 2004 against Obama.

Ill_Ind

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only counties in which Dems do well in are like in Champaign, Carbondale and to some extent Decataur or DeKalb. The Cook Suburbs are the bell weather of this election. The silver lining is that Madigan would have won the college counties more or less.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Illinois Ind:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illinois_United_States_Senate_election_,2004

[Mr. Illini]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politics.suntimes.com/article/springfield/rga-drops-another-750k-back-rauner/wed-04092014-1101am

I guess the only way the GOP can win in blue states like this is by fueling these campaigns while Quinn rakes in money from Illinoisans.

[Rockefeller GOP]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politics.suntimes.com/article/springfield/rga-drops-another-750k-back-rauner/wed-04092014-1101am

I guess the only way the GOP can win in blue states like this is by fueling these campaigns while Quinn rakes in money from Illinoisans.

Seriously, why aren't you just a Democrat ?

[Mr. Illini]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politics.suntimes.com/article/springfield/rga-drops-another-750k-back-rauner/wed-04092014-1101am

I guess the only way the GOP can win in blue states like this is by fueling these campaigns while Quinn rakes in money from Illinoisans.

Seriously, why aren't you just a Democrat ?

I can support certain Democrats while still disliking party affiliation. My avatar was D-IL at one point, though.

[Rockefeller GOP]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politics.suntimes.com/article/springfield/rga-drops-another-750k-back-rauner/wed-04092014-1101am

I guess the only way the GOP can win in blue states like this is by fueling these campaigns while Quinn rakes in money from Illinoisans.

Seriously, why aren't you just a Democrat ?

I can support certain Democrats while still disliking party affiliation. My avatar was D-IL at one point, though.

Not saying you can't, I was just curious.  You seem to strongly favor one party, haha.