VA-Sen: Roanoke College (Warner +27 - A big WARNing to Gillespie)

[LeBron]

Democratic Senator Mark Warner leads former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie 56-29 with 13% undecided in the latest Roanoke poll. The poll was conducted among 821 weighted respondents (gender, race, age) among a number of different regions in the Commonwealth. It was conducted between February 22nd-February 28th and has a 3.4% margin of error with a 3.9% margin of error among voters who are registered.

The funny thing is, I just saw this poll a little while ago on Hardball w/Chris Matthews, so it goes to show even when Gillespie can't break 30% of the vote, this race is beyond overrated and is not likely Democratic as some make it out to be. It might be a teeny bit optimistic towards Warner, but he's definitely leading in the low 20s or high 10s against Gillespie. Nonetheless, this poll further proves it's a safe seat and we need to put our energy in the state just south of there, North Carolina where the Koch's are really trying to destroy Kay Hagan.

Also, Robert Sarvis isn't as big of an influence in this race as he was last year. It shows "other" candidates only getting 1% of the vote and this is because Warner is a lot more popular than McAuliffe is (Warner has a 59% approval to McAuliffe's 45%) and Gillespie isn't as toxic as Cuccinelli. It's also worth noting that Virginians were very "patriotic" in this poll as Roanoke mentions. They think their own state is on the right track and disapprove of other states and politicians like Cuomo and Christie. Among national issues polled among Virginians, they're mostly fiscally conservative, pro-gun, pro-immigration reform, pro-pipeline, pro-minimum wage, pro-marijuana, anti-ACA, and pro-SSM, but anti-Herring legal action, so pretty bad for the most part on issues.

[free my dawg]

>roanoke

[morgieb]

>roanoke

Haha my thoughts exactly.

Though it does give more ammunition to the fact that Gillespie's an over-rated hack.

[Miles]

Junk pollster, but hopefully it helps to shut people up who think Warner is vulnerable.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is the worst pollster I've seen. Probably why MSNBC used it.

[publicunofficial]

This is the worst pollster I've seen. Probably why MSNBC used it.

Let's be fair here, Roanoke is a bad pollster, but their badness doesn't seem to stem from any built-in partisan bias.

[You kip if you want to...]

Toss up.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is the worst pollster I've seen. Probably why MSNBC used it.

Let's be fair here, Roanoke is a bad pollster, but their badness doesn't seem to stem from any built-in partisan bias.

Yeah. They always seem to be way too much one way or the other. I'm just saying MSNBC probably used it as part of their favorable polls. Faux News might use one if they show an overly R result.

[Tender Branson]

Warner is decently ahead, sure.

But the Roanoke College poll is more like the Roajoke poll ...

[Maxwell]

Joke poll, but this seat isn't in contention, no matter how much Politico thinks it is.

[DrScholl]

I think Warner probably wins 56-44.

[IceSpear]

Joke poll, but this seat isn't in contention, no matter how much Politico the beltway media thinks it is.

[SWE]

Bad poll, but still Safe D