Plane with 239 people on board crashes in Southern Indian Ocean

[Meeker]

This seems like a pretty simple, compelling argument: https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz

[Likely Voter]

This seems like a pretty simple, compelling argument: https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz

I have always assumed something like that because it is the simplest solution and the one with the most precedent. However, it does take a lot of unlikely coincidences to have the pilots aware long enough to turn the plane around but not long enough to get off any kind of emergency mayday call. Plus the ACARS system itself would automatically notify the ground at the first warning light so that means that the fire would have to have destroyed the ACARS ability to communicate or the pilots disabled the ACARS. That being said, all air accidents are usually a series of unlikely events, often compounded by human errors. It seems to me that the accident scenario is one that shouldn't be dismissed entirely.

The only other solution that puts all the (apparent) facts together and isn't completely ridiculous is suicide, but the captain seems to be such a huge aviation nut. I guess I just find it hard to imagine that he would become a mass murderer and kill all his passengers like that. The only thing I can think of, and this assumes he was really really political, is that having a plane vanish would be an embarrassment to the government. Air Malaysia is a state airline.

But for me the accident scenario is easier to believe but maybe because it is less horrific to imagine.

[MalaspinaGold]

Agreed- does not explain the "All right, Good Night" call after ACARS switched off.

[Mr. Morden]

This seems like a pretty simple, compelling argument: https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz

OK, but then how do you explain the satellite pings?  If it kept going for hours on that heading, then it would be very far away from either the northern or southern "arcs" on those maps.

[Хahar 🤔]

What keeps drawing me back to the pilot suicide theory is that it only takes one person (one of the two pilots) to pull it off.  These other theories, involving hijacking the plane, and flying it to Asia, inevitably require a larger constellation of accomplices, and you face the questions of "Why aren't there any links between the crew or passengers to known terrorist groups?  Why is there no online chatter among the jihadi groups, as there has been for other attacks?", etc.

What's more, pilot suicide is hardly unprecedented: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EgyptAir_Flight_990

[Likely Voter]

Agreed- does not explain the "All right, Good Night" call after ACARS switched off.

It actually does because the ACARS was not "switched off" at the time of the last contact. The ACARS communicates every 30 minutes. The "goodnight" was in between regular contacts. Air Malaysia clarified this yesterday. There is actually no evidence it was "switched off", only that it failed to make its next report.

[President Tyrion]

Can we talk more about this idea to have a fourth of the passengers be federal officers? I, for one, think it's wonderful.

[Likely Voter]

Can we talk more about this idea to have a fourth of the passengers be federal officers? I, for one, think it's wonderful.

But we have to be realistic. For international flights between Malaysia and China, surely 1/8 of the passengers being US Federal officers would be sufficient.

[Mr. Morden]

To follow up my previous post….

I could buy the onboard emergency theory, but it only fits in with the satellite data if there was a second course correction.  So the sequence of events would be….

1) Onboard emergency knocks out the transponder, and any other means of communicating with the ground.

2) Pilot turns around to make an emergency landing at Pulau Langkawi.

3) Pilot realizes things are worse than he thought, and they won't make it to Pulau Langkawi, so he makes another course correction, perhaps to attempt a landing somewhere else--somewhere that isn't really a suitable landing strip for a 777--but he has to take the risk, because they'll be dead soon anyway.  The new heading is presumably towards the south.

4) Whatever the emergency situation is kills the pilot and everyone on board, but the autopilot keeps them flying on that brand new southerly heading until the plane runs out of fuel and crashes.

5) While on that heading, when everyone onboard is dead, but the plane is still flying, it sends out that signal to the satellite, which shows it still in the air, many hours after the accident.

[Smid]

The only thing I can think of, and this assumes he was really really political, is that having a plane vanish would be an embarrassment to the government. Air Malaysia is a state airline.

There seems to be a few gaps in the pilot suicide theory, but one argument in favour is that apparently he was quite political and a strong supporter of the Opposition - and the Opposition Leader was jailed on the day this happened. Possibly coincidence, possibly something.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/police-search-homes-malaysia-airlines-pilots-suspect-wrongdoing-article-1.1723044

[Likely Voter]

One of the reasons why the accident theory (fire followed by course change and then crew incapacitation) seems more plausible to me is that the final ditching corresponds to about the time the plane would run out of fuel. In the suicide scenario (where we assume the pilot not only wants to die and kill but also make it an unsolvable mystery) why would he wait until the bitter end like that? The longer he stayed aloft the more chance of being spotted by another plane or ship so the sooner he plunged it into the Indian Ocean (once out of range of Malaysia/Indonesia radar) the better.

If it turns out to be suicide I wouldn't be surprised. I just think that the media (and certainly the Malaysians) are dismissing any accident scenario too easily.

I wish that the US NTSB were put in charge and given all the data and access (along with the FBI for the criminal angle). The Malaysians have no experience doing something like this and we have not seen a great level of competence and consistency. I think that is why we are seeing so many "US officials says" off-record reports from the NYT, WSJ. And I am not being jingoistic, it could be handed over to the  UK's AAIB or France's BEA too. Just some credible outfit with the experience to handle this.

Unfortunately it is likely this will never be solved. It is unlikely they will ever find the crash site and even if they did they are unlikely to ever find the flight recorders. The French spent millions over two years to recover the ones after Air France 447, the Malaysians are unlikely to spend those kind resources. Plus it is quite likely that the boxes wont have any data on them.  That would leave analyzing wreckage which is 2+ miles deep.

[Smid]

To follow up my previous post….

I could buy the onboard emergency theory, but it only fits in with the satellite data if there was a second course correction.  So the sequence of events would be….

1) Onboard emergency knocks out the transponder, and any other means of communicating with the ground.

2) Pilot turns around to make an emergency landing at Pulau Langkawi.

3) Pilot realizes things are worse than he thought, and they won't make it to Pulau Langkawi, so he makes another course correction, perhaps to attempt a landing somewhere else--somewhere that isn't really a suitable landing strip for a 777--but he has to take the risk, because they'll be dead soon anyway.  The new heading is presumably towards the south.

4) Whatever the emergency situation is kills the pilot and everyone on board, but the autopilot keeps them flying on that brand new southerly heading until the plane runs out of fuel and crashes.

5) While on that heading, when everyone onboard is dead, but the plane is still flying, it sends out that signal to the satellite, which shows it still in the air, many hours after the accident.

Yeah, your previous link plus these points makes the most sense to me.

[King]

Guys,  I just thought of something: what if the suicide pilot tried to push the plane into space and it blew up in the upper atmosphere? His move was actually a move to the poles and the distance traveled was a steady altitude gain.

It's kind of absurd but would explain how there is no trace of it and would give the pilot a motive for using the jet as opposed to just shooting himself. The Boeing 777 actually does have the highest regulated ceiling of the fleet--far from space, but it is the most capable of pushing upward.

[President Tyrion]

Can we talk more about this idea to have a fourth of the passengers be federal officers? I, for one, think it's wonderful.

But we have to be realistic. For international flights between Malaysia and China, surely 1/8 of the passengers being US Federal officers would be sufficient.

Ah, yes, I apologize, I was not being quite as pragmatic as I could have been.

[Mr. Morden]

Thailand releases their radar data.  They saw an unidentified flight that was probably MA 370:

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/

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[Donerail]

The only thing I can think of, and this assumes he was really really political, is that having a plane vanish would be an embarrassment to the government. Air Malaysia is a state airline.

There seems to be a few gaps in the pilot suicide theory, but one argument in favour is that apparently he was quite political and a strong supporter of the Opposition - and the Opposition Leader was jailed on the day this happened. Possibly coincidence, possibly something.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/police-search-homes-malaysia-airlines-pilots-suspect-wrongdoing-article-1.1723044

Eh, Ibrahim's party is pluralistic, democratic, anti-corruption and nonviolent. He's not any kind of radical leader. There's no real American equivalent of Ibrahim, but people aren't going to be committing suicide because of him. It'd be like committing suicide over - Evan Bayh? Jon Huntsman? Some sane centrist type.

[Oakvale]

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2014/03/17/stolen-boeing-737-found-burnt-out-on-waterford-council-estate/

[DINGO Joe]

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2014/03/17/stolen-boeing-737-found-burnt-out-on-waterford-council-estate/

We are the village green preservation society
God save donald duck, vaudeville and variety

[muon2]

This seems like a pretty simple, compelling argument: https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz

OK, but then how do you explain the satellite pings?  If it kept going for hours on that heading, then it would be very far away from either the northern or southern "arcs" on those maps.

I haven't posted in this thread yet, and if someone knows the answer, please point me at it. But here's my curious thought about the satellite pings.

From what I've read there are pings every hour or so from the plane's antenna to the Inmarsat satellite, that data includes the unique identifier for the plane and the angle of the antenna. The 8:11 am ping at 40 degrees provides the information to construct the search arc like the one below.



Note that the last radar contact at 2:40 am is not along the 8:11 am arc. This is important since there should be approximately five hourly "handshakes" with the satellite after 2:40 and before 8:11. If there is one a little after 3:00 am then it should define an arc on a smaller circle centered around the satellite position. With each hour there would be a slightly different radius circle for the plane's position. If one starts with the 2:40 am position, there should a more restricted range of flight paths that would link the circles at a cruising speed for the 777.

For example a series of circles that slowly move from a circle consistent with the 2:40 position and end at the 8:11 arc would suggest a long relatively steady flight. A couple of intermediate circles then some repeats at the same distance would suggest a shorter flight that ended before 8:11 but still had power to communicate. However, I haven't read anything about any satellite ping except the one at 8:11.

[DINGO Joe]

I have seen this mentioned elsewhere, and you are correct--there has been no information about any other hourly pings provided to the public.

It seems  most likely  that the plane flew on a steady course from it's last sighting via military radar and when it last pinged along the arc line, an erratic path over Asia or Indonesia would have been likely to ultimately draw some attention from military radar Whether suicide or something catastrophic disabled the pilots, a long steady path to the arc in the South Indian Ocean really seems the most likely outcome by far.

[Sbane]

Yes, I am interested in the earlier satellite pings as well and the location data it contains. Surely the people in charge are looking at it...hopefully.

[DINGO Joe]

If media reports are correct, then the turn back across Malaysia had been programmed into the flight system at least 12 minutes before the plane signed off from Malaysian airspace at 1:19, which I guess means the ASCAR communication at 1:07 contained that info.

Basically means that the turn was premeditated and not in response to some type of emergency on the plane.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html

[Smid]

Radio this morning was quoting reports from the Maldives of a very low-flying jet passing overhead and continuing out to sea at about the right time for this flight to have possibly have reached there. Apparently said jet was white with red stripes.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Radio this morning was quoting reports from the Maldives of a very low-flying jet passing overhead and continuing out to sea at about the right time for this flight to have possibly have reached there. Apparently said jet was white with red stripes.

So... we have sightings in the Maldives, we have a search area the size of France 3000km to the west of Perth, we have the theory of an electrical fire (which is plausible), the satellite images that could be wreckage in the Straits of Malacca... it's just f'ing nuts.

[DINGO Joe]

Radio this morning was quoting reports from the Maldives of a very low-flying jet passing overhead and continuing out to sea at about the right time for this flight to have possibly have reached there. Apparently said jet was white with red stripes.

I've seen those stories too, the only problem is that the search seems very focus on the arc line from the final ping and the Maldives are nowhere close to the arc and in fact are almost directly underneath the satellite.