Maps of Current State Houses and Senates

[ElectionsGuy]

Current State Senates:

Note: Maine has 35 seats, Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature of 49 members.

Current State Houses:

Note: Maine has 154 house seats

[ElectionsGuy]

This leads me to some questions:

Why is Florida so republican dominated?
Why is Missouri and Indiana so uber republican dominated?
Why is New York's state senate so closely divided?
Why is Michigan's state senate so republican dominated?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

1. Gerrymandering.
2. The Indiana Legislature, thanks to gerrymandering, was very Democratic until Republicans won both chambers in 2010.  Missouri sort of evolved into what it was because of demographic shifts and Republican strength in rural areas.
3. This is a tricky one.  The Republicans would not, in fact, have their majority had several Democrats not defected from their party to form an independent coalition that caucuses with the GOP.  Some have accused Cuomo of condoning or orchestrating this because Reasons.
4. Gerrymandering.

[DC Al Fine]

This leads me to some questions:

Why is Florida so republican dominated?
Why is Missouri and Indiana so uber republican dominated?
Why is New York's state senate so closely divided?
Why is Michigan's state senate so republican dominated?

Gerrymandering and a tendency for Democratic voters to pack themselves in together.

[morgieb]

This leads me to some questions:

Why is Florida so republican dominated?
Why is Missouri and Indiana so uber republican dominated?
Why is New York's state senate so closely divided?
Why is Michigan's state senate so republican dominated?

1. Gerrymandering, poorly organised state party.
2. Some gerrymandering, but a lot of this is down to the Dems being too concentrated in urban areas. This happens a lot in the Mid-West, and is probably more exaggerated in a Lean R state.
3. Gerrymandering, better local strength for the Republicans, "Democrats" being traitors.
4. Gerrymandering, Dems being too concentrated.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Also, you can thank the Georgia Democrats for their 1990 dummymander and party defections.  Same for the Arkansas Dems, but they probably wouldn't have kept their majorities for much longer even if they drew themselves a good map.  Oh, and I don't know about Maine, but obviously local Republicans have shown that they can't hold a majority in general election years.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

To be able to do Maine and Nebraska just as you would any other state, use 1964, the only year in which DC is on the map, but no one is using CDs.

(Note: Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral Senate, and DC has a unicameral Council.)


Current State Senates:

Current State Houses:

[Dave from Michigan]

Also Michigan holds it's state senate elections in midterm years only, and 2010 was the last year they were held and that was a republican landslide year. The republicans only held it by 20-18 after 2006 though. The democrats haven't held the Michigan state senate since 1983 when they lost 2 seats in special recall elections due to voting for then governor Blanchard's tax increase.

[Miles]

TN has also really stuck out as me as skewing heavily R. Outside of Nashville and Memphis, TN really is done with the Democratic Party.

[Skill and Chance]

I've often wondered if one party does systematically better/worse with larger/smaller districts.  Looking at state houses vs. state senates, there doesn't seem to be a big difference.  I would have suspected Democrats do better with state senates in competitive states because it would be harder to isolate the cities into their own districts.

[Skill and Chance]

TN has also really stuck out as me as skewing heavily R. Outside of Nashville and Memphis, TN really is done with the Democratic Party.

TN is really interesting.  I don't think of it as being as Republican as the High Plains/Mormon states, but it looks that way here.  Especially in contrast with the Democrats still hanging on in KY and WV.  IIRC the maps weren't particularly gerrymandered there. 

On another note, the GOP has likely locked in control of 27-30 states for the foreseeable future, regardless of how well the Dems do nationally.  That could have some far-reaching implications

[bgwah]

If New York is red on the Senate map, then Washington should be as well. Or vice versa.

[Miles]

The OK legislature will also likely get more Republican this decade, as there are still many Democrats representing rural seats in the east.

[TDAS04]

It's a bit unexpected that Democrats are no longer in complete control of the Washington legislature.  On the other hand, I don't think they completely controlled Oregon before the 2012 elections, so the Northwest can be somewhat competitive.

[Sol]

It's a bit unexpected that Democrats are no longer in complete control of the Washington legislature.  On the other hand, I don't think they completely controlled Oregon before the 2012 elections, so the Northwest can be somewhat competitive.

If you ever get the chance, look at the WA redistricting thread. The Republicans basically got the best possible plan there.

[Kevinstat]

Note: Maine has 154 house seats

Three of those seats are for tribal representatives (one each from the Penobscot Nation, Passamaquoddy Tribe (of the Abanaki Nation) and, beginning in January 2012, the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians), who can't vote except in the committee they're in and whose vote there doesn't affect whether a committee report is a majority or minority report (and presumably not whether a report is considered unanimous, which does matter in Maine where only bills unanimously reported "Ought Not to Pass" can be killed "under the gavel," and where the path to passage for bills reported out unanimously favorably is streamlined a bit in the House).

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The drafters of the newest version of House Rule 525 (or the one from 2010 that had to accommodate the addition of the Maliseet representative midway through that term) apparently forgot to change the header.

Members of the tribes can also vote for regular State Representatives (and all other offices the rest of us can vote for), but they're spread out enough (a fairly recent Penobscot Nation representative lived in Richmond in Sagadahoc County) that none of their own have yet been elected to a regular Legislative seat that I know of.  The first Maliseet Representative ran in 2012 for a House seat in Bangor's northeastern suburbs where he lived (as a non-party candidate, with no Democrat in the race) but lost 2.8 to 1 to the Republican incumbent.

The tribal members are generally not included in the party tallies, although they can be members of a party (although then-Governor Baldacci ticked the tribes off with his anti-casino stance, sometimes seen as stronger for the casino proposals with some tribal ownership than for some, like a "racino" in Bangor (later allowed to become a full-fledged casino in a Penobscot County vote) with no tribal benefit, so I wouldn't be surprised if all three tribal representatives are Unenrolled (Independent) voters now, although LePage has made threats to stop a Truth and Reconciliation Commission in the past so some of them may have forgiven the Democrats for their former Governor's transgressions).  For the purposes of this table, I'd use 151 as the denominator, which doesn't matter in the present case as Democrats are between 50% and 60% of the House either way (although only two seats shy of being in the 60%-70% bracket if the percentage of the 151 seats is used, as they hold 89 of those seats now (they were in the mid-90s before the 2010 elections, where they lost the majority in a huge upset)).

[Indy Texas]

TN has also really stuck out as me as skewing heavily R. Outside of Nashville and Memphis, TN really is done with the Democratic Party.

TN is really interesting.  I don't think of it as being as Republican as the High Plains/Mormon states, but it looks that way here.  Especially in contrast with the Democrats still hanging on in KY and WV.  IIRC the maps weren't particularly gerrymandered there. 

On another note, the GOP has likely locked in control of 27-30 states for the foreseeable future, regardless of how well the Dems do nationally.  That could have some far-reaching implications

Tennessee has far less of the things that let Democrats win seats in neighboring states. It has relatively few black people. It has an old, entrenched Republican tradition in half of the state. It has no coal and no labor history.

I don't know much about TN's economy, but I know that in neighboring North Carolina, for example, the banking industry tended to favor the sort of moderate, consensus Democrats that controlled state politics there up until 2010.

[Skill and Chance]

The OK legislature will also likely get more Republican this decade, as there are still many Democrats representing rural seats in the east.

Woah!  It looks like at most 12 Obama districts (unsure if all of the D incumbents in OKC and Tulsa represent Obama districts?) out of 101 in the state house!  And 3 Obama districts out of 48 in the state senate.  It should be a Republican Hawaii by 2020.

[Del Tachi]

I've never realized until now that a California state senator represents a larger constituency than a Californian serving in the United States House of Representatives.

Somewhat impressive.  

[ElectionsGuy]

I've never realized until now that a California state senator represents a larger constituency than a Californian serving in the United States House of Representatives.

Somewhat impressive.  

Same with Texas.

[ElectionsGuy]

Here's a combination of the two (weighted 50% each on percentage of R/D)

Strongest D's are HI (>90%), MA, DC and RI (>80%), and Maryland (>70%)
Strongest R's are UT, WY, and ID (>80%), and OK, KS, SD, ND, TN, and IN (>70%)

[Gass3268]

I've never realized until now that a California state senator represents a larger constituency than a Californian serving in the United States House of Representatives.

Somewhat impressive.  

Same with Texas.

I'd argue that both states should expand their state senate's to correct that, but interesting regardless.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's a combination of the two (weighted 50% each on percentage of R/D)

Strongest D's are HI and DC (>90%), MA and RI (>80%), and Maryland (>70%)
Strongest R's are UT, WY, and ID (>80%), and OK, KS, SD, ND, TN, and IN (>70%)

DC should only be 80% D.  City council is 13D and 2 I.

[ElectionsGuy]

Here's a combination of the two (weighted 50% each on percentage of R/D)

Strongest D's are HI and DC (>90%), MA and RI (>80%), and Maryland (>70%)
Strongest R's are UT, WY, and ID (>80%), and OK, KS, SD, ND, TN, and IN (>70%)

DC should only be 80% D.  City council is 13D and 2 I.

Oh, thanks. I just assumed they were all D because... well, its DC.

[Kevinstat]

I've never realized until now that a California state senator represents a larger constituency than a Californian serving in the United States House of Representatives.

Somewhat impressive.  

Same with Texas.

But not as much as a Monatanian serving in the United States House of Representatives.