Maps of Current State Houses and Senates

[jimrtex]

Phantom Ballots of Long Island

The results for SD 25 are very curious.   It turns out that the 171 ballots were tallied and bundled in batches of 50, with 21 in a final odd-lot batch.

During the recount, an additional 21 ballots were found bundled with the 21 ballots tallied on election night.  It does not appear that the 21 additional ballots were identified, but rather simply that Manchester received 21 more votes than shown on the tally sheet.

Since they were hand-counted paper ballots, I'd expect that a forensic investigation might be able to determine which ballots are new.

Long Island is the only town in the district that hand counts ballots.   But there were some other mysteries, such as lost ballots from Westbrook, and 3 vote switches on machine-counted ballots in Gray.

The mystery has been solved, it seems.  The "phantom ballots of Long Island" did not exist (as different ballots from already counted ones).  The 21 ballots were from a bundle of 50 that was segregated by vote in that Senate race during the recount (as happens when you're counting the ballots in a recount) but were not put back with that bundle but instead went into another bundle (the one left over, I think) and were counted again.  In the session of the Senate Election Committee yesterday, all of Long Island's ballots were counted and the results matched the election night tally perfectly.  (In some article I read one of the ballot counters in Long Island (not the town clerk but an assistant vote counter) be quoted as saying, "Someone owes my town an apology.")  Cathy Manchester (R) has resigned her... well I guess her provisional seat.  The full Senate will still have to vote to seat Cathy Breen (D) when it reconvenes in January, although that seems like a done deal now.

I'm not sure if any of the other issues were addressed, which is a bit surprising as Breen's margin with after the Long Island fix should only be 10 and there were some 9 disputed ballots (not all of which were potential Breen votes and probably not all potential Manchester votes either) and the missing ballots in Cumberland and Manchester and that machine issue in Gray.  If the Republicans conceded with those issues still outstanding, it makes me wonder if a Republican vote counter during the recount might have deftly and purposefully moved those 21 ballots into a new pile when no one else was looking, and conceding was part of a quid pro quo to prevent further investigation.  The official word is that it was just human error though.

The finger pointing from party leaders, bloggers and even our magnanimous and non-partisan Governor (what's the rolleye icon?) has continued, however, and the Secretary of State is doing damage control.

Anyway, the Maine Senate should be colored >50% R, as it currently is (or >55% R if a 5% gradient is used), not >60% R.  The tally in the Maine Senate will be 20 R and 15 D.  The Maine House, again, is 79 D, 68 R and 4 Unenrolled/Independent.

That must have been fun, since they re-recounted the odd-lot batch first.  Someone from the SOS office would probably have smiled that there were 42 ballots, just like we said, and then sneered at the Long-Islanders.  They then opened the box which should have had 50 ballots, and it only had 29.

During the recount, they might have been trying to speed things up, opening up one bundle while counting the previous.  The bundles from Long Island were probably sorted.  You count paper ballots by sorting them by candidate and then count the number of ballots, while double checking that the sort was correct.  You might tally them during the sort, as someone looked at a ballot, and announced "Breen" or "Manchester" they would place the ballot in a stack, and someone else could put a tally mark.   You then count the Breen stack, while checking that they are indeed Breen ballots.

So you might have the stack of 21 Manchester ballots, and someone said something about 21 ballots, and they were confused with the odd lot.

Many years ago, another branch of a company I worked for was expecting a shipment of seismic tapes, worth several 1000 dollars.   They were delivered to our office, and a shipping clerk signed the receipt.   The same day, someone found some boxes with empty tape canisters in a basement.  They were brought up to our office, and the shipping clerk told someone to move "them" into a storeroom.  "Them" included the boxes with the newly recorded tapes, and the boxes with empty tape canisters.  The boxes with the empty canisters were lighter and placed on top.

The other branch started tracking down their missing tapes.  They had the delivery clerk confirm that he had delivered them to our branch.  He had the signed receipt.  The shipping clerk said that there were some boxes with empty canisters.   We checked the storeroom and there were the boxes with empty canisters.

A few days later, after this had been escalated up to HQ. I checked the storeroom one last time.  It needed some rearranging, so I moved the boxes with the empty canisters.   And then lifted up the box below, expecting it to also be quite light.  Ugh!  It wasn't as light.  It was full of tapes.  New tapes that weren't supposed to be there!

A year or so later, our paychecks were mistakenly sent to the other branch.  Fortunately, they decided not to exact revenge.

[ElectionsGuy]

After 2015

State Senates

State Houses

Although Vermont's State House Democrats only make up 57%, other progressives and independents (8% of the state house) are likely used for a super majority coalition. Republicans are just 35%.

Louisiana remains the only deep south state without both chambers having Republican super majorities (>60%).

[ElectionsGuy]

I averaged the percentages for all the state senates and state houses by party and here's what I got:

State Senates: 57.3% Republican, 42.5% Democratic
State Houses: 56.2% Republican, 43.4% Democratic

[CatoMinor]

lol New York

[ElectionsGuy]

It's quite fascinating how high the Democratic floor in Montana is. You'd think that this is a GOP-friendly state, but it's not.

It is interesting. All you need to know about Montana's political geography (relating to why Democrats seem to win a lot there) is that much of the vote is in urban, mid-sized cities like Missoula, Bozeman, Great Falls, etc. Only one of those cities (Billings) is very Republican. All it takes is a decent swing in those areas and Democrats have a fighting chance. Most of the other counties are near empty.

Montana and Colorado I think are two places where the GOP has really under performed in the last decade to where they 'should be'.

One random other thing: How does Tennessee only have 5 Democrats in their state senate? Has the TDP thought about disbanding yet? lol

[ElectionsGuy]

After 2015

State Senates

State Houses

Although Vermont's State House Democrats only make up 57%, other progressives and independents (8% of the state house) are likely used for a super majority coalition. Republicans are just 35%.

Louisiana remains the only deep south state without both chambers having Republican super majorities (>60%).

After 2016

State Senates

In Hawaii, EVERY state senator is a Democrat, literally 100% control. The next closest state to that is Wyoming, which is 90% Republican (27 to 3). Connecticut and Delaware have Democratic control due to their Governor/Lt Governor, but the numbers of Republicans and Democrats are tied.

D Pickups: NV, WA
R Pickups: IA, MN

State Houses

D Pickups: NV, NM
R Pickups: KY

[Nyvin]

Didn't the Democrats take the Alaska House through a coalition or something?

[ElectionsGuy]

Didn't the Democrats take the Alaska House through a coalition or something?

According to ballotpedia the Republicans have 21 to Democrats 17 and 2 Independents, so at maximum its 21/19, unless they're wrong, then I'll correct.

[JerryArkansas]

Didn't the Democrats take the Alaska House through a coalition or something?

According to ballotpedia the Republicans have 21 to Democrats 17 and 2 Independents, so at maximum its 21/19, unless they're wrong, then I'll correct.

Several Republicans are with the Dems to do a coalition.

[jimrtex]

Didn't the Democrats take the Alaska House through a coalition or something?

According to ballotpedia the Republicans have 21 to Democrats 17 and 2 Independents, so at maximum its 21/19, unless they're wrong, then I'll correct.

In the past Alaskan Native Democrats from the interior have caucused with the Republican Party. Some (all?) of these were defeated in the primary.

Three Republicans representatives have announced that they will form part of the "majority" caucus, which along with the two independents will give the "majority" a 22-18 advantage. Of the three Republicans, one was given the chair of the House Rules Committee, and the other chair of the House Finance Committee.

A Democratic senator has joined the majority caucus, giving them overwhelming control of the Senate.

If you flip the Alaska House, you also have to flip the Washington senate.

[jimrtex]

After 2016

State Senates

In Hawaii, EVERY state senator is a Democrat, literally 100% control. The next closest state to that is Wyoming, which is 90% Republican (27 to 3). Connecticut and Delaware have Democratic control due to their Governor/Lt Governor, but the numbers of Republicans and Democrats are tied.

D Pickups: NV, WA
R Pickups: IA, MN

State Houses

D Pickups: NV, NM
R Pickups: KY

Is Illinois a midwestern state?

[muon2]

After 2016

State Senates

In Hawaii, EVERY state senator is a Democrat, literally 100% control. The next closest state to that is Wyoming, which is 90% Republican (27 to 3). Connecticut and Delaware have Democratic control due to their Governor/Lt Governor, but the numbers of Republicans and Democrats are tied.

D Pickups: NV, WA
R Pickups: IA, MN

State Houses

D Pickups: NV, NM
R Pickups: KY

Is Illinois a midwestern state?

Third coast.

[BSH]

Might be a dumb question, but how did Democrats have so much hold in WV state legislatures  pre-2014?

[Young Conservative]

This leads me to some questions:

Why is Florida so republican dominated?
Why is Missouri and Indiana so uber republican dominated?
Why is New York's state senate so closely divided?
Why is Michigan's state senate so republican dominated?

Florida is highly polarized, but The GOP is far better organized with a far better bench.