Favourite latest post by previous poster

[traininthedistance]

A preface: I decided to work on redistricting NC for my fair redistricting thread. But because it can be kind of ugly, I decided to go here first.

Why do I call redistricting NC ugly? Basically, drawing districts with a lot of the standards that both I and the other mappers use can be a little problematic here- a good example is how a whole county CD-7 and a black majority/opportunity CD-1 completely screws up CD-3, forcing it squirm inland. Similarly, avoiding whole county bridges can mess with COI pretty hugely in Charlotte. Anyway, allow this to be my explanation for the ultra-ugly CD-02, as well as the deviation, which is also a bit higher than I'd like, though it's all within +/-1000. Suffice it to say that this is a rough draft.



NC-01
Deviation: -471
Demographics: 51.5% black (50.4% BVAP)
Voting: 69.6% Obama, 70.4% D
Commentary:
This is basically your standard Black majority NE NC district. I chose to avoid the whole argument about whether NC-01 is required to be black majority by drawing something similar to the status quo, and I chose to go into both Durham and Raleigh because it lets you draw nicer lines to the east.



NC-02
Deviation:+347
Voting: 39.6% Obama, 42.1% D
Commentary:
This the ugly duckling of this particular set, alas. Basically, Pressure from NC-03 forces it to go west (additionally ruining NC-08's nice whole county shape, btw). It's basically a cleaned up version of Renee Ellmers's current district, and it'd probably actually be safer for her without the current district's weird chomp out of SW Wake County. In future drafts, I may look at splitting the Fayetteville County Cluster, since this is pretty yucky at the moment (though I still won't split up the Lumbee!)



NC-03
Deviation: -426
Voting: 45.5% Obama, 48.6% D
Commentary:
This is your coastal district, albeit somewhat squeezed by NC-01 to the North and NC-07 to the south. I took it as far west as I could without dipping into Johnston County, which is something I'm proud of. Walter Jones is probably fairly safe here; A blue dog could be vaguely competitive after he leaves office.



NC-04
Deviation: -726
Voting: 55.4% Obama, 54.5% D
Commentary:
Price's PVI takes a colossal hit here, as Chapel Hill and Durham are forced to swallow a bunch of Greensboro suburbia. It's not the kind of district that would elect a any sort of Pubbie long-term though; even if they won in a wave year, they'd lose big next time around.



NC-05
Deviation: -157
Voting: 33.8% Obama, 36% D
Commentary:
This district makes a little more sense than it looks- the odd shape is due to Iredell County's status as a part of the Charlotte UCC. Anyway, ultra-safe R. Foxx does not live here, but she might run here nonetheless; it's her electoral base.



NC-06
Deviation: +306
Voting: 60.3% Obama, 57.4% D
Commentary:
This is your Winston-Salem/Greensboro district. It's safe D. I have no idea who'd win a primary here, though a Winston-Salem Democrat is probably the strongest bet.



NC-07
Deviation: -187
Voting: 42.8% Obama, 45.7% D
Commentary:
This is a district whose shape I like a great deal - Whole Counties! McIntyre probably wouldn't reconsider his retirement even with this district- Jacksonville and Carteret County are not D friendly.



NC-08
Deviation: +892
Voting: 53.6% Obama, 56.2% D
Commentary:
It is quite hard to avoid a tri-chop of Wake and arrange Charlotte as I have with this district as whole counties, so I just gave up. This district should be favorable to Larry Kissell or one of his ilk.



NC-09
Deviation: -15
Voting: 38.4% Obama, 38.2% D
Commentary:
This is the Charlotte sub/exurbia district that pretty much any map'll have. My particular configuration for the Charlotte area (see maps 10 and 12 for more) is based on some previous stuff from Muon. Anyway, this CD is safe for whatever pub wants to sail in.



NC-10
Deviation: -265
Voting: 42.4% Obama, 42.4% D
Commentary:
This is the other Charlotte area pub seat, though a more apt description might be Charlotte-WNC rurban seat. Safe for McHenry, though he should probably keep his eye on his section of Mecklenburg County.




NC-11
Deviation: +224
Voting: 46.6% Obama, 47.2% D
Commentary:
This is your WNC district, now in whole counties, and taking in a good chunk of the High Country. It's very winnable for the Dems, against either Meadows or Foxx (both live here), provided they don't nominate a left-winger as Asheville and Boone are probably wont to do.



NC-12
Deviation: +48
Voting: 62% Obama, 56.8% D
Commentary:
A fair district based mostly in Charlotte, with a bite out of Union County to even NC-09's pop. numbers. It's safe for the Democrats and it's only gonna get safer. Malcolm Graham probably wins here.



NC-13
Deviation: +426
Voting: 52.9% Obama, 49.1% D
Commentary:
This a whole Wake County district; I used NC-01's jump into Raleigh to do it. It's a very competitive district, which would probably flip back and forth a bit, although a DLC-type Dem would probably be the most capable sort to hold it for the whole decade.

The Whole map:



Anyway, the map is 5D-6R-2T, although NC-04 and NC-08 could be competitive in a huge R wave.

[Potatoe]

Finnegans Wake has moments of great humor and exquisite wordplay even if the plot is perhaps too hermetic for anyone but the most devoted literature professors to understand.  I would legitimately like to read it someday.

Also, it gave the English language "quark" and at least a few other things I can't remember right now.  So don't hate, appreciate.

It's like, who was the worse musician, Arnold Schoenberg or Alvin & the Chipmunks?  The Chipmunks are obviously objectively worse even if they're easier for everyone to understand.

[Maxwell]

Ugh, one of the most boring Republicans since Bob Dole, there isn't anything of interest about him.

[Potatoe]

#closerace #Warnerunder50 #Gillmentum

[SWE]

Ed Gillespie

Yeah, been reading too much Politico as of late?

[Potatoe]

Oakvale hates every thread

[Goldwater]

How about some good posts instead?

[Napoleon]

You know what's weird? In a way, I kind of like Bill Maher. And yet, if he wasn't "such a big meanie", I would probably hate him.

[ElectionsGuy]

What's the dotted line?

The mean of "mean"

[Morning in Atlas]

He just seems like an establishment republican robot hack.

[Flake]

HE'S A BIG FASCIST MEANIE

[tik 🪀✨]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=189963.msg4109950#msg4109950

My phone is refusing to properly copy the post. My apologies.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm having a difficult time even breaking this username down into its base components in order to properly string them together. For instance, I have no idea what LWC means, so I will make up a definition: Lily White Cock. The period preceding this could be interpreted as "Inks.LWC" being a file with the filetype Lily White Cock. What program uses this filetype? Probably some of rooster database program popular with farmhands in the Upper Peninsula.. oh look, alright, this is hard. I have no idea. Don't even know how to relate any of it to "Assemblyman" or "Queen Mum" without all kinds of delicate gender balancing acts.

To summarize, this person is a farmhand with gender dysphoria.

[Potatoe]

A very smart and witty guy who knows when and how to call bullsh*t on other people's rants and whose opinions are generally sound. It's really a shame he now seems to do exactly what he was so good at mocking: make silly posts for the sake of being "edgy". He's starting to get annoying in the exact same way Snowstalker is.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Common Core and Amnesty will be the death of Jeb. He is a BIG proponent of Common Care which TPers absolutely despise and an avid supporter of amnesty we all know what that did to Rubio. I don't know why people think he would have such a clear path for the nomination especially with rising stars like Paul, Cruz, or Walker potentially in the race. He'd be the guy who hasn't competed for an election since 2002 running against people that have all been recently elected in the past fews been on the trail etc.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

HP for being a sore loser. He was well within his rights to contest the election because of how close it was. But he dragged it out for months longer after the resolution just to keep Franken from getting seated.

If anybody was the sore loser in that race, it was Franken, and he stole the election with the help of convicted felons illegally voting for him.

[Potatoe]

how about no

[traininthedistance]

How does a CADD program win an election?

Ask phknrocket1k who started this style of what-if. I'm just continuing the tradition.

Well maybe the tradition needs to be put to rest.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

As much as I like Oakvale (I haven't popped into the IRC in a while. Maybe later tonight I'll pay a visit) I have to agree with this. Regardless about who the subject is, if a poster is no longer interested in politics and doesn't care for the community, they shouldn't stay. Luckilly, Oakvale still likes the Atlas community, which is why he sticks around.

This wasn't written towards Oakvale, but I think it applies to him more than anyone else on the forum:

A little more honey and a little less vinegar.

Seriously, I used to be a fan of his posts, but all I see these days is one-note snark and contrarianism, without much if any constructive ideas to balance it out.  And while I do find that the targets of his ire are, most of the time, worthy targets of ire... it's just all too Ahab-like, y'know? 

This will probably be met with charges of "whatever, you sensitive weenie softcock", and it's a charge that has more than a little merit.  But... I dunno, if you're so sick of political discussion that all you have left is piss and vinegar, I guess I just don't see the point.

[SWE]

Doesn't contribute to the forum, so HP.

What do you contribute besides your inflated ego and hackish opinions? Oldies at least adds maps to the site, which is very, very important.

I contribute correct opinions.

You only contribute what I contribute to my toliet.

[Goldwater]

hp cuz republican officeholder tho

Oldies, you need to take a long, hard look at your life choices.

I'm just saying it's ridiculous to say somebody's an HP simply because they're Republican.

It wasn't painfully obviously that Scott was joking?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Badger had a red avatar for the longest time, so I assumed the blue avatar was ironic.  People don't actually switch from Democrat to Republican for reals any more, do they?

Yeah, I never understood the ironic blue avatar thing. I think King has one too, and IRRc your old blue avatar was also ironic. Why do people do that? Id there something I'm missing? Should I start ironically wearing a red avatar? I just don't get it...

[nclib]

I'll be praying for your complete recovery. I'm sure it will be quick and easy .

[Goldwater]

Absolutely horrible. It blows minor incidents (and non-incidents) out of proportion.

Also, the emphasis is usually on the wrong items. For example, zero tolerance for cursing, while hesitating to punish bullying. Not only is that standard morally wrong, but antithetical to the standards of the real world, i.e. not preparing kids for adulthood.

On a larger scale, I'm not against appropriate discipline of children, but I think our society is too focused on stopping misbehaving children, where we don't focus enough on having punishments proportional to the offense. The fact that we use corporal punishment for children, but not for criminals, is because of this.

[IceSpear]

Cheney, my evil Neocon bro.