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[Enderman]

No, I don't want a 51st state unless the Dakotas merge, and even then, DC has first dibs in my book.

[Antonio the Sixth]

YES!

[Flake]

New York

Making up about 2/3 of its original population, this diminished New York State retains within its border the city that makes it famous, as well as Long Island and the five counties of its close northern suburbs. To no one's surprise, it is a one-party Democratic State, giving Democratic presidential candidates extremely lopsided margins. In fact, this is probably the most overwhelmingly Democratic State in modern elections (Obama's home State of Hawaii gave him only slightly higher margins).

NY Presidential election results, 1960-2012:


However, it must be noted that New York has not always been quite so democratic. While Democrats have always performed better there than nationwide, for a long time the State remained vulnerable to Republican waves. Traditionally,New York used to be an extremely polarized State: the four man boroughs were Democratic countries, while Long Island, Staten Island, and the Northern suburbs leaned strongly toward the Republican Party. Most of the time, the densely populated inner NYC (it makes up about 60% of the State's population, but only a slim majority of the votes cast, due to poor turnout) easily outweighed the Republican periphery. However, in the 1980s, Reagan's overwhelming popularity in suburban New York allowed him to win the State twice. I was actually pretty amazed when I realized that: I even double-checked my excel formula to make sure I hadn't made any mistake, but no, he really did carry a State that now gives 70% of its vote to Obama.

Here's the 1984 county map, to give you an idea.



That year, Reagan defeated Mondale by a razor-thin 0.2 points, 49.9% to 49.7%. In this map you can see what happened. Mondale carried the four borough. Mondale carried Manhattan by 45 points, the Bronx by 34, Brooklyn by 23, and the Queens by a paltry 7. Meanwhile, Reagan distanced Mondale by 30 points in Staten Island, 28 points in Long Island, by 20 points in the two inner suburban counties of Westchester and Rockland, and by 36 points in the two northernmost counties of Dutchess and Orange. In short, New York State in the 1980s was split in two: an uber-Democratic urban core, and a just as strongly Republican suburban ring.

What has changed since, accounting for the State's massive Democratic trend, are mostly the suburbs, which are now solidly in the Democratic column. In 2012 for example, Obama did better than nationwide in every county except Putnam (Romney's only victory), Staten Island, and Long Island's Suffolk County. The four borough have also fallen even further into Democratic hands, to the point that Romney couldn't break 20% in any of them. In short, chopping of Upstate NY doesn't change much in presidential politics. From a State that has maybe 0.1% of voting Republican anytime soon, we get a State where this chance is maybe 0.001%. The remaining now is: what about Upstate, or, as it's called in this scenario, the State of Adirondack? Are there enough Democrats there to keep it in line, or did this split Result in a Republican gain of about 10-15 Electoral Votes?

Capital: It would be just wrong to have it be anywhere else than in NYC. Probably the Statehouse should be located in Manhattan, considering its historical centrality.

Governor: Andrew Cuomo could still easily take the spot, but he'd probably face a sizable opposition on his left and a solidly Democratic State Legislature would thwart the most right-wing aspects of his agenda.

Senators: Charlie Rangel (class 1) and Chuck Schumer (class 3) - if this State can't have at least one African-American in its statewide elected offices, I don't know which one can.

Representatives: With Democrats in total control of the State Legislature, they could probably easily pull a gerrymander and take all the State's seats for themselves. That said, I'm not sure they would do it. Regardless, even under the current bipartisan map they already control all but two seats in that area, so things wouldn't change much.

[Badger]

I can see them giving Eastwood another chance.

[traininthedistance]

I sympathize with the man who died in custody. Police brutality is not something we can casually gloss over, but I'm not sure how we can make the police responsible for preserving the life of a man who was effectively committing suicide via gluttony.

If the suspect lacks the instinct of self-preservation, it seems a bit absurd to make law enforcement responsible for keeping him alive.

Your "sympathy" is underwhelming, even appalling.

[GaussLaw]

The National- Mr. November

Though of course this is kinda cheating, as the song is in large part "about" (to the extent that you can really ever pin Matt Berninger's lyrics down to anything specific) Kerry's run in 2004.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sometimes it feels like this subforum is a perpetual mockery of Appalachian Republicans as everything wrong with America.

[Enderman]

This was a year ago, he probably has upped his tone on Russia and Ukraine by now.

[BaconBacon96]

Something that has to do with Ovals

[LeBron]

I'm hesitant about this...it's quite a radical proposal.

[GaussLaw]

Politically, I would love to land a job as the Lieutenant Governor of Ohio. I would get paid a $78K salary and would be able to oversee the Ohio Senate without even having to really do anything.

Though realistically, I would most like to be a U.S. history or government teacher considering it's always been one of my favorite subjects, I've done exceedingly well in all those classes, and I have a nice enough, but strict personality IRL to be able to do it. I'm also pretty adamant about journalism, to, only it's increasingly difficult to get a high-up, dream job involving that.

[TDAS04]

I dreamt that in 2016, Hillary Clinton got utterly crushed, as in losing every state except Vermont.  And she lost to Ted Cruz.

Kooky, yes, and I do not remember many other details. 

[Bacon King]

Pretty disgusting.  This guy may have been an evil murderer, but he shouldn't have been tortured.  Also, as long as the state has the power to kill, an innocent person could easily be executed, and the execution may be botched.  That risk should be removed, and abolishing the death penalty is the only way to remove the risk.

[windjammer]

sorry to hear about the breakup Bushie, was it you or her



ps first merch is out

[Enderman]

"The Era of lawsuits against the VP"

[LeBron]

I never posted that. Stop making stuff up in my name.

Sure you never posted that... Just right after you deleted it.

[GaussLaw]

Likely Dorman if that Rasmussen poll means anything, but Johnson isn't out of the question.

Actually, I could argue Silverstein will do better than whoever gets the OK (S) Dem nomination considering just how polarizing Johnson is to centrist and conservative Democrats in the state. There's a chance that she might lose the nomination to the 26%er and non-campaigner Jim Rogers if the runoff between them has low enough turnout and even if Johnson does pull it out, she'll only have 2 months to campaign against Lankford. Plus, Inhofe naturally does worse than the average generic Republican in Oklahoma.

But yeah, Dorman will outperform the other two by far.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This ad is just not that different from one by AFP or Crossroads in style or substance.  It seems like Dems are utilizing the Guess the Party strategy in 2014 now.

[Flake]

No act so absolute as killing could ever be called justice.

[Cranberry]

But ... that ad makes me like Cassidy more.

Exactly. It makes conservative voters think Cassidy = Obama and they'll either vote for Maness or for Landrieu, which would also make her chances higher, and if there's a runoff, some conservatives will stay home because both are "the same".

The voters that would like this ad would never vote for Cassidy, so it's a positive for Landrieu.

[SWE]

Article
The Observer - July 26 2014

Merger Referendum in Pacific and Midwest
Low Turnout in the Midwest, Interesting results in the Pacific

Numerous politicians throughout the region and the nation have repeatedly expressed their support for a merger between the Pacific and the Midwest, among them President DemPGH, who recently stated his dream for "four healthy, active regions". The discussion eventually came up in the Pacific, after a proposal by Governor Cranberry that would replace the current Pacific Council with an Universal Legislature. The proposal was heavily debated, and eventually not followed due to heavy rejection, yet the discussion again sparked up the ever going discussion over a merger. In the end, Governors Belano from the Midwest and Cranberry from the Pacific decided on a public referendum, simultaneously held in both regions, that would initate official talks if passed by both regions. The Merger Referendum still is in progress, lasting 72 hours until July 27, yet The Observer is able to show first exit polls from both regions:

Midwest:
Turnout (as of July 26): 3 / 28 (10.7%)
Aye: 1 (33.3%)
Nay: 0
Abstain: 2 (66.7%)

Pacific:
Turnout (as of July 26): 13 / 29 (44.8%)
Aye: 5 (38.5%)
Nay: 8 (61.5%)
Abstain: 0

Our exit polls show little interest in the Midwest, and just one additional Nay-vote (Archduke Fitzgerald already stated his opposition to a merger and has not yet cast his ballot) would result in the referendum to fail. On the other hand, the Pacific sees a large turnout, nearing fifty percent, and it seems as if a clear, 60% majority of Pacificians don't want to see their region mergered. The Observer is confident enough to project that the referendum will most likely fail in the Pacific, while we are not ready to make any projection on the referendum's outcome in the Midwest. Nevertheless, with the likely failing of the referendum in the Pacific, a merger may be off the table for a longer time now, and both regions will have to see for other methods to increase activity.  

[Antonio the Sixth]

McConnell has the same odds of being re-elected as Mark Warner does.

Meh.  At least it's better than Franken's.

[TDAS04]

If the fine were preventative, the level would be set based on the wealth of the perpetrator, but it's not.

It should be.

[traininthedistance]

Pope Francis. 

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Cogendism.