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[JerryArkansas]

Udall is certainly in danger, and your deluding yourself if you think otherwise. Lean D.

[JerryArkansas]

Aye (D). Saying that this does not violate privacy because it's done in a public place is missing the point. A woman does not expect her undergarments to be seen in ordinary circumstances, so placing a camera in a particular spot does violate her privacy.

having a specific law is probably an invitation to frivolous lawsuits.

How so? Do you mean that someone takes a picture without ill intent, and it happens to show underwear/buttcrack/cleavage/etc., and that person sues?

[JerryArkansas]

Yes. At the very least, it should have about 700 seats. Ideally more like a thousand.

[JerryArkansas]

TX, Conservative Dem, are you sure you're really a Democrat, or are you Texas's new Zell Miller?

[JerryArkansas]

Cook was the most accurate pollster in 2012 (not difficult when you have a lot of toss up).

[JerryArkansas]

Oh, to be that microphone!

[JerryArkansas]

2012
After the impeachment of President Jefferson and VP Kasich, Speaker Goldwater was named President, he later selected former Sec. State Colin Powell, his economic policy marked a Libertarian turn for America between 2010-2012, known as the "Yellow Crush", though driving off Tea Party Candidates after coming out in support of Gay Marriage and Athiesm, Senator Ted Cruz (Appointed after the untimely death of John Cornyn in late 2009), challenged him from the right, he gained a lot of steam, winning his home state of Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and surprisingly, even Wisconsin, though Goldwater pulled through after Cruz's campaign was drained of funds after the resignation of Chief of Staff Steve Stockman, meanwhile, Governor Guntaker of Wisconsin, who defeated Scott Walker in a landslide of 56% to 43%, also famous for his stand against Gun Control, passing both a Hand Gun and assault Weapons ban in the space of 5 months, spoke up to run after his approvals were at 50%, he faced an uphill climb to defeat favorite for the nomination and 2008 runner up Mary Landreiu, but after Landreiu's campaign started imploding after a series of bad Debate performances, notable gaffes, and flip flopping on a number of issues, she pulled out of the race to fundraise with Senate Candidates, allowing Guntaker to narrowly snatch Iowa, followed by a .2% win over Senator Liz Warren (Beat Brown in 2010), who then pulled out herself, Guntaker found himself waltzing to the nomination, but with troubles from the Religious/Evangelical Democrats, who took issue with his Social Liberalism and being an Athiest, he soothed the worries by picking Rep. Scott from Arkansas, an outspoken Religious Moderate, Guntaker's road to beating Goldwater was set, in the Debates, Guntaker tied with Goldwater on Economic Issues, but made gaffes when it came to Social Issues, not wanting to offend the Religious right, but he pulled through in the second and third, due to Goldwater being tied up and stressed after visiting former President Jefferson in Illinois, in the end, 2012 would go down as one of the most exciting races in history.

Gov. Guntaker(D,WI)/Rep. Scott(D,AR):347 EV, 52%

Pres. Goldwater(R,WA)/VP Colin Powell(R,NY):191 EV, 46%

[JerryArkansas]

Schweitzer, because I'm a fan of gun nuts.

[JerryArkansas]

My whole family is coming from three different valleys, all within 50 kilometers, so that could never happen to me. I'd take it of course if I could.

[JerryArkansas]

Maryland

There, I simply merged the neighboring Delaware and DC into Maryland, adding about 1.5 million to the State's population. This, as you can imagine, doesn't change much to the State's political outlook. However, the overwhelmingly democratic DC would push the State somewhat to the left of OTL Maryland, with significant consequences.

MD Presidential election results, 1960-2012:


Indeed, this new Maryland becomes one of the most consistently Democratic States of the past half-century, voting Republican only once (Nixon's 1972 landslide) since 1960. Both times, the narrow Republican victories of 1984 and 1988 are canceled by DC's heavy Democratic margins (even as Delaware alone would have brought the State further toward the GOP). The most striking result is that, under this scenario, Mondale actually won more than one State. He carried MD by 0.4 points, more than the 0.2 point margin he had in Minnesota! Clearly, even a numerically small constituency like DC can make a major difference if it's sufficiently overwhelming in its support for one party.

Comparing the new and old States' relative PVI brings further perspective (DC is omitted because its PVI fluctuates between 50 and 80, and thus would skew the graph too much):



As you can see, the "new" Maryland remains always about 5 points more democratic than its RL counterpart. Delaware's political leanings, generally a bit more Republican than MD's, have almost no influence. On the other hand, DC's impact is significant, turning an already solid-D State into stronghold territory. Since DC residents began to vote in 1964, this new Maryland has always been at least 7 points more Democratic than the nation. The only time when OTL Maryland displayed a slight Republican lean IRL, namely 1972, saw McGovern lose by only 16 points in this scenario. Starting in the 2000s, Maryland's PVI has been at or above 20 points, making it rock-solid Democratic country.

Capital: I'd say Annapolis still works fine.

Governor: Still Martin O'Malley

Senators: Tom Carper (class 1) and Barbara Mikulski (class 3) - I'll be nice and give poor little Delaware a Senator

Representatives: With the State Legislature solidly in Democratic hands, the party would have no trouble creating a gerrymander like the OTL one, and getting a 9D-1R delegation. They might even take all 10 seats for them in if they play their cards right with New Castle County, but I can't know that for sure. Regardless, giving congressional representation to DC would net the Democrats one more seat.

[JerryArkansas]

This thread was just going to compare the black % by state in 1910 and 1970, but ElectionsGuy wants to create maps for all the decades, back through 1790.  To start, I'll just show that even in 1910 the black distribution was very different from today. 

1910:

From darkest to lightest green:
50.0% or more African-Amerian
40.0-49.9%
30.0-39.9%
20.0-29.9%
10.0-19.9%
5.0-9.9%
Less than 5.0% African-American

ElectionsGuy's maps will use the same color scheme.

[JerryArkansas]

As someone who played the sport at very young ages, and can still make cognitive decisions would you kindly spare me?

[JerryArkansas]

Looks like Grothman is going to win. Only candidate that could make the 6th competitive.

On a scale of 1 to Bachmann, how unelectable is he?

I'll let you decided.

I know that some of these are from left leaning sites, but I think it gets the point across.

Proposes Law That Declares Single Parenthood Child Abuse

"Women make less because ‘Money is more important for men"

Fights For A Seven-Day Workweek

More Quotes

Jesus christ. We just got rid of Bachmann in Minnesota only to have her return in Wisconsin.

[JerryArkansas]

7-2 ruling in favor of gay marriage, with Scalia and Alito dissenting?

I would be stunned if Thomas votes in favor of gay marriage, and that's an understatement. 

[JerryArkansas]

As for anecdotal evidence I once came across a joke book from the 1980s about "true Vermonters" versus the new migrants from NYC and elsewhere which made it clear "true Vermonters" were conservative Republicans and while expressing some respect for then-Mayor Bernie Sanders also hoped that he'd stop being a socialist and never run for a higher office such as the Senate.

[JerryArkansas]

Rhymes with Paella

Scalia doesn't rhyme with Paella unless you're mispronouncing one of these words.

[JerryArkansas]

The NY State Board of Elections had results for the rest of the districts:

[JerryArkansas]

Overrated.

[JerryArkansas]

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And the religious bigotry continues.

What is bigoted about this post? The cult remark?

There is evidence to support that claim: Mormonism does not fare well under the BITE model or Robert Lifton's 'Thought Reform' criteria. It doesn't help that Mormonism's foundations, and it's significant claims relative to other branches of Christianity, become lot more dubious when placed under critical examination; nor does it enjoy the obfuscation by the weight of history that Islam, Judaism, and other mainline branches of Christianity enjoy.

Moreover, I can critique its political structure, or it's belief systems, without passing judgement onto the average believer.

[JerryArkansas]

We've all heard the statement that "nice guys finish last", but most people refer to dating/sucess with attracting females when using that cliché statement, but do nice guys finish last in general? Some argue that being nice is bad because people will take advantage of your niceness. Others argue that being nice is vital because it will get people to like you, and the help of others will help you suceed. Do nice guys finish last in business/the world of finance? Do nice guys finish last in dating? Do nice guys finish last in regular, everyday life? You guys also have to remember that a lot of times jerks win (example: Mitt Romney). I'm personally a nice guy and I dislike jerks. There are plenty of arguements for both sides, and I want to see what you guys thing.

[JerryArkansas]

Hillary Clinton

From this:



To this:





SOOOOOOOO SAAAAAAAAD

You realize this favorability rating is far higher than that of any of the Republican candidates, correct?

What polls have shown is that Hillary has very high name recognition. 

Now that the public is getting to know more about her, her statements, her views, her actions, her favorable ratings will decline, go up with some other event, fluctuate.

But anyone who believes that Hillary is guaranteed the Presidency is sadly mistaken.

Once she declares, if she does, and once she is under the microscope as a major candidate for the Presidency, and once the slogging gets tough and nasty, as it surely will, she will not be leading the race nearly to the extent that she has been doing. 

This race is not over, as some Hillary robots seem to believe, but really has not as yet even begun in the larger context.   

Yes, very high name recognition...and positive favorability. Quite a good combination if I do say so myself.

And if the public already knows about her, why would they fall after they "get to know her"? They already know her. Maybe 2 weeks of intense and relentless negative media coverage will move the numbers a bit, maybe she'll get temporary bumps from things like announcing her campaign clinching the nomination, but in the grand scheme of things, most people aren't changing their opinion of her at this point.

Nobody said she's guaranteed the presidency, so that's just a strawman. She's already been under the microscope for quite a while now. She's received far more scrutiny than any other candidate in either party. If anyone has to be worried about increased scrutiny, it will be the eventual Republican nominee (unless it ends up being media darling Jeb Bush, since they'll give him a pass for everything.)

[JerryArkansas]

Haley would be my guess. Walker or Pence would be solid picks too.  Cruz won't pick a moderate running mate. His biggest selling point to conservatives is ideological purity.  Huntsman, Ayotte, etc. wouldn't be considered.

The base always rallies around the nominee. Romney didn't lose 2012 because the conservatives stayed home. They won't care about the VP nominee so long as Cruz tops the ticket. Cruz is running because he wants to win, not for sh*ts and giggles.

Of course he is running to win. You think Cruz/Huntsman would be stronger than Cruz/Walker? Nobody outside of Atlas believes Huntsman belongs anywhere near a GOP ticket. He doesn't connect with voters and his smugness is borderline obnoxious. And he clearly despises the base. Haley is the most likely, because she's charismatic, a governor, a woman, a minority, conservative and term limited.

You accuse me of being part of the "Atlas bubble" but I find that you are the one stuck in the Tea Party bubble of electoral ignorance. What about the corruption and ethics issues surrounding Nikki Haley? Just because she is "young and charismatic" doesn't mean she will be anywhere near the ticket. Come the general election, we Republicans no longer count. We can unite around the nominee and win, or we can stay home and lose. There are no other options. Outreach to independents is crucial, and a John Kasich/Jon Huntsman/Rob Portman type is what the party needs.

[JerryArkansas]

Okay sorry I'm done.

[JerryArkansas]

Let's not be silly here guys. Bill Clinton was an incredibly popular president who presided over a huge economic boom and is still loved by many today (myself included). Bill's record will help Hillary more than it will hurt her.

[JerryArkansas]

Can't be worse than Frank.