How likely would this map be in the coming years?

[ElectionsGuy]

This is literally opposite Obama 2012. 332-206 R, roughly a 4 point win just like Obama in 2012. How likely would this map be in the coming years?

[Skill and Chance]

Unlikely in 2016, but it's a very plausible 2020 map.  It would either be the economy failing to improve under Hillary or re-election of a Republican who barely won in 2016.

[IceSpear]

No way in 2016
2020 potentially if Hillary has a VERY bad tenure in office, but probably not
2024 potentially if Republicans moderate, nominate a good candidate, and Democrats nominate a meh/bad candidate

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

New Mexico and Michigan would probably flip before Minnesota.

[free my dawg]

Would've been plausible in 2008. Ridge/Coleman vs. Edwards/Richardson?

[Person Man]

It could be possible in 2016 if we enter another recession. Otherwise, I'd expect that it will be like 2004 or 2012 where "voters just don't like Democrats".

seven closest states-

New Hampshire 51-48
Wisconsin 50-49
Nevada   50-49
Pennsylvania 49-50
Iowa 49-50
Colorado 48-51
Virginia 48-51

Ohio, North Carolina, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, Florida are around 47-52 and the national vote is like 48-51.
All other states were at least somewhat of landslides.

[MATTROSE94]

That map could be for 2020 with a somewhat successful Republican (Jeb Bush?) running for re-election agianst a fairly weak Democrat (Martin O'Malley or Deval Patrick?).

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I can't phrase it in terms of "how likely", but I can rather say that your little hypo is a 52-46 GOP national victory with a very boring Democratic candidate. 

[illegaloperation]

Extremely unlikely. This isn't 2000/2004 era anymore.

[morgieb]

Plausible map for 2020 if the Dems have a bad year.

[RTX]

Fairly possible in 2016 if Sanders runs as an independent.

[ElectionsGuy]

Extremely unlikely. This isn't 2000/2004 era anymore.

Suggesting that republicans can't do well anymore? Or suggesting that these layout of states won are unlikely?

[SWE]

Extremely unlikely. This isn't 2000/2004 era anymore.

Suggesting that republicans can't do well anymore? Or suggesting that these layout of states won are unlikely?

The layout is very unlikely, considering that states like Nevada and Virginia area tending D and will probably be out of reach in a few cycles, while states like Michigan are tending R and this more likely Republican victories

[TDAS04]

It's possible.  I think that Michigan would vote Republican before Minnesota, though.

In any case, I think it's not too likely in the near future.  I doubt the GOP will do that well just yet.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Switch Virginia with New Mexico, and make both Maine districts D, than yes.

[SWE]

Switch Virginia with New Mexico, and make both Maine districts D, than yes.

New Mexico isn't even a swing state anymore

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Switch Virginia with New Mexico, and make both Maine districts D, than yes.

New Mexico isn't even a swing state anymore

Has a better.chance at flipping in say 10 years than Virginia. I believe Virginia isn't even winnable for Republicans in 2016, New Mexico can be winnable in the future if the GOP does better with Hispanics.

[Skill and Chance]

Switch Virginia with New Mexico, and make both Maine districts D, than yes.

New Mexico isn't even a swing state anymore

Has a better.chance at flipping in say 10 years than Virginia. I believe Virginia isn't even winnable for Republicans in 2016, New Mexico can be winnable in the future if the GOP does better with Hispanics.

Not winnable in 2016?  Are you thinking Mississippi levels of elasticity in VA going forward?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Switch Virginia with New Mexico, and make both Maine districts D, than yes.

New Mexico isn't even a swing state anymore

Has a better.chance at flipping in say 10 years than Virginia. I believe Virginia isn't even winnable for Republicans in 2016, New Mexico can be winnable in the future if the GOP does better with Hispanics.

Not winnable in 2016?  Are you thinking Mississippi levels of elasticity in VA going forward?

What makes Virginia unwinnable going forward is that unlike other swing states, such as Colorado or Florida, is that the Dem advantage as of late is built on blacks rather than Hispanics. The state is 20% black, but has a negligible Hispanic population (~4%). So even if the GOP does begin to appeal to Hispanics more, they have little chance of better appealing to those black voters that they have consistently alienated over the past 6 years with their constant dog whistling over Obama, which will keep Virginia in the Democratic column.

[SPC]

What makes Virginia unwinnable going forward is that unlike other swing states, such as Colorado or Florida, is that the Dem advantage as of late is built on blacks rather than Hispanics. The state is 20% black, but has a negligible Hispanic population (~4%). So even if the GOP does begin to appeal to Hispanics more, they have little chance of better appealing to those black voters that they have consistently alienated over the past 6 years with their constant dog whistling over Obama, which will keep Virginia in the Democratic column.

So it was the absence of "dog whistling" that enabled Bush to get a whopping 11% of the black vote and win Virginia by 8 points?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

What makes Virginia unwinnable going forward is that unlike other swing states, such as Colorado or Florida, is that the Dem advantage as of late is built on blacks rather than Hispanics. The state is 20% black, but has a negligible Hispanic population (~4%). So even if the GOP does begin to appeal to Hispanics more, they have little chance of better appealing to those black voters that they have consistently alienated over the past 6 years with their constant dog whistling over Obama, which will keep Virginia in the Democratic column.

So it was the absence of "dog whistling" that enabled Bush to get a whopping 11% of the black vote and win Virginia by 8 points?

In that time the white vote shrank 2-3 points and Romney managed to only get around 6% of the black vote.

[ElectionsGuy]

What makes Virginia unwinnable going forward is that unlike other swing states, such as Colorado or Florida, is that the Dem advantage as of late is built on blacks rather than Hispanics. The state is 20% black, but has a negligible Hispanic population (~4%). So even if the GOP does begin to appeal to Hispanics more, they have little chance of better appealing to those black voters that they have consistently alienated over the past 6 years with their constant dog whistling over Obama, which will keep Virginia in the Democratic column.

So it was the absence of "dog whistling" that enabled Bush to get a whopping 11% of the black vote and win Virginia by 8 points?

In that time the white vote shrank 2-3 points and Romney managed to only get around 6% of the black vote.

Not to mention huge losses with white voters as well. Went from 68% for Bush to 61% for Romney.

Nationwide Romney actually improved from Bush with White voters. Not the case in Virginia.

[SPC]

What makes Virginia unwinnable going forward is that unlike other swing states, such as Colorado or Florida, is that the Dem advantage as of late is built on blacks rather than Hispanics. The state is 20% black, but has a negligible Hispanic population (~4%). So even if the GOP does begin to appeal to Hispanics more, they have little chance of better appealing to those black voters that they have consistently alienated over the past 6 years with their constant dog whistling over Obama, which will keep Virginia in the Democratic column.

So it was the absence of "dog whistling" that enabled Bush to get a whopping 11% of the black vote and win Virginia by 8 points?

In that time the white vote shrank 2-3 points and Romney managed to only get around 6% of the black vote.

And clearly it was that loss of 5% of the black vote and % of white voters that caused a 12% swing to the Democrats between 2004 and 2012.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

What makes Virginia unwinnable going forward is that unlike other swing states, such as Colorado or Florida, is that the Dem advantage as of late is built on blacks rather than Hispanics. The state is 20% black, but has a negligible Hispanic population (~4%). So even if the GOP does begin to appeal to Hispanics more, they have little chance of better appealing to those black voters that they have consistently alienated over the past 6 years with their constant dog whistling over Obama, which will keep Virginia in the Democratic column.

So it was the absence of "dog whistling" that enabled Bush to get a whopping 11% of the black vote and win Virginia by 8 points?

In that time the white vote shrank 2-3 points and Romney managed to only get around 6% of the black vote.

And clearly it was that loss of 5% of the black vote and % of white voters that caused a 12% swing to the Democrats between 2004 and 2012.

It was also, as ElectionsGuy mentioned, a pretty significant shift in the white vote.

[fartboy]

I don't know about Minnesota or ME2, but the rest is possible.