How likely would this map be in the coming years?

[SPC]

What makes Virginia unwinnable going forward is that unlike other swing states, such as Colorado or Florida, is that the Dem advantage as of late is built on blacks rather than Hispanics. The state is 20% black, but has a negligible Hispanic population (~4%). So even if the GOP does begin to appeal to Hispanics more, they have little chance of better appealing to those black voters that they have consistently alienated over the past 6 years with their constant dog whistling over Obama, which will keep Virginia in the Democratic column.

So it was the absence of "dog whistling" that enabled Bush to get a whopping 11% of the black vote and win Virginia by 8 points?

[SPC]

What makes Virginia unwinnable going forward is that unlike other swing states, such as Colorado or Florida, is that the Dem advantage as of late is built on blacks rather than Hispanics. The state is 20% black, but has a negligible Hispanic population (~4%). So even if the GOP does begin to appeal to Hispanics more, they have little chance of better appealing to those black voters that they have consistently alienated over the past 6 years with their constant dog whistling over Obama, which will keep Virginia in the Democratic column.

So it was the absence of "dog whistling" that enabled Bush to get a whopping 11% of the black vote and win Virginia by 8 points?

In that time the white vote shrank 2-3 points and Romney managed to only get around 6% of the black vote.

And clearly it was that loss of 5% of the black vote and % of white voters that caused a 12% swing to the Democrats between 2004 and 2012.

[SPC]

What makes Virginia unwinnable going forward is that unlike other swing states, such as Colorado or Florida, is that the Dem advantage as of late is built on blacks rather than Hispanics. The state is 20% black, but has a negligible Hispanic population (~4%). So even if the GOP does begin to appeal to Hispanics more, they have little chance of better appealing to those black voters that they have consistently alienated over the past 6 years with their constant dog whistling over Obama, which will keep Virginia in the Democratic column.

So it was the absence of "dog whistling" that enabled Bush to get a whopping 11% of the black vote and win Virginia by 8 points?

In that time the white vote shrank 2-3 points and Romney managed to only get around 6% of the black vote.

And clearly it was that loss of 5% of the black vote and % of white voters that caused a 12% swing to the Democrats between 2004 and 2012.

It was also, as ElectionsGuy mentioned, a pretty significant shift in the white vote.

So if that shift can mostly be attributed to the shift in the white vote (rather than demographic predeterminism), then why would Virginia be unwinnable for Republicans in the future? Since any path for Republicans going forward necessitates either the cessation of current demographic trends or increased performance among white voters, I don't see why Virginia would be any more unwinnable than any other swing state.