FL-13/PPP: Sink+3
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  FL-13/PPP: Sink+3
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Author Topic: FL-13/PPP: Sink+3  (Read 1072 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« on: March 10, 2014, 02:16:16 PM »

March 7-9, 2014
Survey of 702 likely voters

...

Alex Sink......................................................... 48%
David Jolly ...................................................... 45%
Lucas Overby.................................................. 6%
Undecided....................................................... 2%

...

Already voted (60% of sample):

Alex Sink......................................................... 52%
David Jolly ...................................................... 45%
Lucas Overby.................................................. 3%

Election Day voters (37% of the sample):

David Jolly ...................................................... 45%
Alex Sink......................................................... 41%
Lucas Overby.................................................. 10%
Undecided....................................................... 4%

Link
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2014, 02:17:55 PM »

Overby fading in the final days could help Jolly.

This is now getting tighter than expected ...
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IceSpear
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E: -6.19, S: -6.43

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« Reply #2 on: March 10, 2014, 04:03:33 PM »

I'd rather be Sink than Jolly due to the banked early vote lead, but this one's looking like it will come down to the wire.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: March 11, 2014, 03:54:15 PM »

I'm excited for tonight Smiley
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krazen1211
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: March 11, 2014, 06:25:14 PM »

Junk poll!
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Joshgreen
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« Reply #5 on: March 11, 2014, 06:32:03 PM »


Amen. PPP's new methodology sucks.
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DrScholl
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E: -5.55, S: -3.30

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« Reply #6 on: March 11, 2014, 06:46:45 PM »


Junk poster!
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Joshgreen
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« Reply #7 on: March 11, 2014, 06:48:00 PM »


He has a point, bro
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DrScholl
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« Reply #8 on: March 11, 2014, 06:59:06 PM »


If you saw his bad 2012 predictions and some of the junk polls he posted, you'd know he has no room to run around calling anyone out.
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Joshgreen
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« Reply #9 on: March 11, 2014, 07:00:23 PM »


If you saw his bad 2012 predictions and some of the junk polls he posted, you'd know he has no room to run around calling anyone out.

Maybe not, but PPP dropped the ball and Jensen should be held accountable.
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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
SawxDem
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« Reply #10 on: March 11, 2014, 08:02:22 PM »


If you saw his bad 2012 predictions and some of the junk polls he posted, you'd know he has no room to run around calling anyone out.

Maybe not, but PPP dropped the ball and Jensen should be held accountable.

Not really. They overestimated Sink's support by about 1 point.
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Joshgreen
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« Reply #11 on: March 11, 2014, 08:05:50 PM »


If you saw his bad 2012 predictions and some of the junk polls he posted, you'd know he has no room to run around calling anyone out.

Maybe not, but PPP dropped the ball and Jensen should be held accountable.

Not really. They overestimated Sink's support by about 1 point.

And underestimated Jolly by 3. So they screwed up by 5 which was bad. Should have used a larger sample.
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krazen1211
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: March 11, 2014, 08:18:35 PM »


They actually thought Faulconer would get thrashed in San Diego.
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Joshgreen
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« Reply #13 on: March 11, 2014, 08:19:40 PM »


They actually thought Faulconer would get thrashed in San Diego.

I know. They've been off since '12
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #14 on: March 11, 2014, 08:29:30 PM »


Yep.

Just remember this the next time he posts a PPP poll with a Republican ahead. It will be "Glorious news!" regardless; he won't care he was trashing them tonight.
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Meeker
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« Reply #15 on: March 11, 2014, 08:38:47 PM »

They had everyone within 3 points of where they ended up. And the absentee/e-day vote split had the right gist as well. Hardly junk.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #16 on: March 11, 2014, 09:08:13 PM »


They actually thought Faulconer would get thrashed in San Diego.

Now that's a damn lie, their last poll of that race was a tie. You can't call a tie a thrashing.
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krazen1211
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2014, 08:19:20 AM »


If you saw his bad 2012 predictions and some of the junk polls he posted, you'd know he has no room to run around calling anyone out.

Maybe not, but PPP dropped the ball and Jensen should be held accountable.

Not really. They overestimated Sink's support by about 1 point.

And underestimated Jolly by 3. So they screwed up by 5 which was bad. Should have used a larger sample.


The nice thing about this extremely fast and loose criteria is that it covers a canyon size range of outcomes, and thus PPP can be 'held accountable' even if they get the wrong winner when the other polls got the right winner!
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