Which party will control the New York Senate after November?
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  Which party will control the New York Senate after November?
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Republicans
 
#2
Republicans in conjunction with independent Democrats
 
#3
Democrats
 
#4
Other
 
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Total Voters: 53

Author Topic: Which party will control the New York Senate after November?  (Read 884 times)
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Just Passion Through
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« on: March 12, 2014, 11:55:59 PM »

It's been suggested that if an "extreme conservative" like Rob Astorino is the Republican nominee for governor, moderate Republican turnout will be suppressed and voters will be turned off enough by his candidacy to elect more Democrats to the State Senate.  On the other hand, the Senate map is sorely gerrymandered in the Republicans' favor, and while the balance of power is down to only a handful of seats, it is difficult seeing the Democrats win back the majority if they couldn't win it back with Obama on the ballot.

At this time, my guess is that the composition of the Senate will be the same, give or take maybe two seats, and enough Democrats will again caucus with the GOP to keep them in control of the chamber.
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RedSLC
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« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2014, 11:58:36 PM »

Option 2. I think it's safe to say that the majority of the seats will actually elect democrats even without a socon at the top of the ticket, but that there will still be enough "independent democrat" (read: DINO) defections to keep the GOP in control.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2014, 01:27:04 AM »

Republicans;

1st. While I like Dave Denenberg (He was my County Legislator until the last round of redistricting) the problem is it's a midterm that will be more stacked towards the GOP than usual, plus Democrats have two Strong Candidates in the Congressional Race (Kathleen Rice and Kevan Abrahams), meaning any serious candidate in this area will run here.

2nd. If Simcha Felder wins he caucuses with Republicans, If another Democrat wins, he/she will caucus with Republicans (I am however amazed Felder isn't actually a Republican however)

3rd Jeffery Klein, Diane Savino, David Carlucci, David Valesky (Independent Democratic Conference).
Avella and Klein are more likely to lose to a Democrat, Carlucci and Valesky are more likely to lose to a Republican, and Savino could go either way, but probably tilts Republican.

My Guess (As of Today)

(Simcha Felder is counted in the GOP column)
Astorino vs Cuomo
Democrats 29 GOP 34 IDC 1 GOP+5

Trump vs Cuomo
Democrats 35 GOP 25 IDC 3 D+3

Cuomo vs Paladino
Democrats 33 GOP 27 IDC 3 D+1

Cuomo vs McLaughlin
Democrats 30 GOP 31 IDC 2 R+2
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TX Conservative Dem
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« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2014, 12:38:13 PM »

I'm betting the Republicans will control the NY State Senate in November.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2014, 12:43:31 PM »

Republicans. Cuomo will do anything to help his favored party.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2014, 01:14:42 PM »

Probably option 1 or 2, unfortunately.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2014, 01:22:46 PM »

Other: really does not matter at all.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2014, 01:28:34 PM »

Not that you guys are very good at this. Tongue

That's one of the first threads I started here!
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2014, 09:48:16 PM »

Could someone explain why the NY Democrats agreed to caucus with the GOP? What did they gain from it?

You'd never get that kind of arrangement in Texas and Texas Democrats are far more conservative than NY ones.
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« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2014, 10:44:45 PM »

Could someone explain why the NY Democrats agreed to caucus with the GOP? What did they gain from it?

You'd never get that kind of arrangement in Texas and Texas Democrats are far more conservative than NY ones.

The moderate Democrats, including Cuomo, have far more in common with the moderate Republicans who make up the majority of the GOP caucus in NY than they do with the far-left city Dems.

Essentially, this basically allows the independent Democrats to determine what gets passed. Dean Skelos is far more beholden to them than the Dems would be.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2014, 10:46:20 PM »

Could someone explain why the NY Democrats agreed to caucus with the GOP? What did they gain from it?

You'd never get that kind of arrangement in Texas and Texas Democrats are far more conservative than NY ones.

Can this possibly be true post-2010?  I mean it's Wendy Davis and 1/3rd of the chamber in incredibly safe seats, right?  No Blue Dogs have been in the Texas Senate for a while now.  Whereas in NY you have a bunch of moderate Democrats and Republicans who are used to deal-making occupying 5X% Obama districts that the GOP drew to be just competitive enough.  Are there any 5X% Obama districts in the Texas Senate at all?  
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2014, 11:12:44 PM »

Could someone explain why the NY Democrats agreed to caucus with the GOP? What did they gain from it?

You'd never get that kind of arrangement in Texas and Texas Democrats are far more conservative than NY ones.

Can this possibly be true post-2010?  I mean it's Wendy Davis and 1/3rd of the chamber in incredibly safe seats, right?  No Blue Dogs have been in the Texas Senate for a while now.  Whereas in NY you have a bunch of moderate Democrats and Republicans who are used to deal-making occupying 5X% Obama districts that the GOP drew to be just competitive enough.  Are there any 5X% Obama districts in the Texas Senate at all?  

Wendy Davis is a moderate Democrat by every standard but those of the Tea Party and the pro-life fundies. She used to vote for Republicans and donate to Republicans!

Ideologically she's closer to a country club GOP-er like John Carona than either of them are to the most hardcore members of their parties (Dan Patrick on the Republican side and probably Sylvia Garcia on the Democratic side).
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henster
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« Reply #12 on: March 14, 2014, 02:52:44 PM »

If Cuomo and Democrats made a concerted effort they could flip the State Senate but Cuomo seems content with the way things are he'd rather work with the IDC than a Democratic Senate.
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Badger
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« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2014, 08:30:19 PM »

How is the NY State Senate map so GOP friendly? Dems have controlled the gov's mansion and State House since the last census. Do both chambers have to agree on a map, thus giving the nominally GOP Senate veto power over any plan that wouldn't benefit them?
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cinyc
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« Reply #14 on: March 14, 2014, 10:31:00 PM »

How is the NY State Senate map so GOP friendly? Dems have controlled the gov's mansion and State House since the last census. Do both chambers have to agree on a map, thus giving the nominally GOP Senate veto power over any plan that wouldn't benefit them?

Both houses need to agree on the map, and it is signed by the governor.  The Democrats didn't control the Senate when redistricting was being done - the Republicans and the IDC did.  In recent redistrictings, the Senate and Assembly have been drawing their own maps and agreeing to each others' map.  Therefore, the Republican + IDC Senate drew a map favorable to Republicans and the IDC members, which the Assembly rubber stamped.  Ditto for the Democrats in the Assembly.  Governor Cuomo signed the maps into law.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2014, 04:39:21 AM »

How is the NY State Senate map so GOP friendly? Dems have controlled the gov's mansion and State House since the last census. Do both chambers have to agree on a map, thus giving the nominally GOP Senate veto power over any plan that wouldn't benefit them?

I think court-drawn maps were taken off the table because Cuomo didn't veto the gerrymander:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/16/1074782/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-The-number-one-redistricting-villain-in-the-nation-Andrew-Cuomo

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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: March 15, 2014, 12:56:38 PM »

How is the NY State Senate map so GOP friendly? Dems have controlled the gov's mansion and State House since the last census. Do both chambers have to agree on a map, thus giving the nominally GOP Senate veto power over any plan that wouldn't benefit them?

I think court-drawn maps were taken off the table because Cuomo didn't veto the gerrymander:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/16/1074782/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-The-number-one-redistricting-villain-in-the-nation-Andrew-Cuomo

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Cuomo has a lot of explaining to do if he ever wants to be president. Luckily, Hillary seems to have crushed his dreams for the time being, and he should be old news by 2024.
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SWE
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« Reply #17 on: March 15, 2014, 12:58:42 PM »

How is the NY State Senate map so GOP friendly? Dems have controlled the gov's mansion and State House since the last census. Do both chambers have to agree on a map, thus giving the nominally GOP Senate veto power over any plan that wouldn't benefit them?

I think court-drawn maps were taken off the table because Cuomo didn't veto the gerrymander:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/16/1074782/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-The-number-one-redistricting-villain-in-the-nation-Andrew-Cuomo

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Cuomo has a lot of explaining to do if he ever wants to be president. Luckily, Hillary seems to have crushed his dreams for the time being, and he should be old news by 2024.
Keeping Cuomo out of the White House could be the best thing Hillary's ever done
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: March 15, 2014, 12:59:31 PM »

How is the NY State Senate map so GOP friendly? Dems have controlled the gov's mansion and State House since the last census. Do both chambers have to agree on a map, thus giving the nominally GOP Senate veto power over any plan that wouldn't benefit them?

I think court-drawn maps were taken off the table because Cuomo didn't veto the gerrymander:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/16/1074782/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-The-number-one-redistricting-villain-in-the-nation-Andrew-Cuomo

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Cuomo has a lot of explaining to do if he ever wants to be president. Luckily, Hillary seems to have crushed his dreams for the time being, and he should be old news by 2024.
Keeping Cuomo out of the White House could be the best thing Hillary's ever done

There's one thing we can agree on. Wink
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #19 on: March 15, 2014, 08:48:11 PM »

How is the NY State Senate map so GOP friendly? Dems have controlled the gov's mansion and State House since the last census. Do both chambers have to agree on a map, thus giving the nominally GOP Senate veto power over any plan that wouldn't benefit them?

Local politics simply doesn't mirror national politics in New York.  Before 2009, Republicans had control of the chamber since 1964.  Shortly after the new Senate was sworn in, party control was put in jeopardy due to a leadership crisis.  Following the 2010 midterms, Republicans and Independent Democrats had enough seats to co-lead the chamber.  One of the reasons Republicans have an advantage in the Senate is that Upstate NY is proportionately overrepresented while NYC is underrepresented.
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