IA-Quinnipiac: Braley (D) with an average lead of 12 points

[Tender Branson]

U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley holds double-digit leads over most likely Republican contenders:

    42 - 30 percent over former U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker;
    42 - 29 percent over State Sen. Joni Ernst;
    40 - 31 percent over businessman Mark Jacobs;
    42 - 27 percent over radio commentator Sam Clovis.

Congressman Braley gets a 35 - 18 percent favorability rating, while 46 percent of Iowa voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For the Republicans, 77 to 85 percent of voters don't know enough about the candidates to form an opinion.

...

From March 5 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,411 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2019

[badgate]

I wouldn't be surprised for it to get closer once there is a clear Republican frontrunner that more people know about. But I think Dems should feel good about this one.

[Joshgreen]

I wouldn't be surprised for it to get closer once there is a clear Republican frontrunner that more people know about. But I think Dems should feel good about this one.

Exactly. Leads mostly due to name rec, but Braley is in a good spot.

[LeBron]

Weird, they didn't poll the Republican primary especially given the filing deadline is today in Iowa, so barring a last minute entry, Braley will go unopposed with a jumbled Republican primary of no names. Obama's poor approval doesn't seem to be hurting him much either, which is good. So I think it's safe to say that this race just went from lean D --> likely D. The only reason I wouldn't call it safe is because it's Iowa and lack of name recognition among the Republican candidates, though these Republicans still stand little to no chance. Endorsements really won't mean anything, but for the sake of Ernst, Jacobs or Whitaker, they better hope one of them gets at least the required 35% of the vote or else they'll even have less time to campaign and get their name out there.

As for the other things in the survey, I'm kind of shocked that Grassley (62%) has a higher approval rating than Harkin (55%) does. Either way, Braley will be a great successor to Harkin as someone who can both reach across the aisle and still gain support from his liberal base. 

[ElectionsGuy]

R's have to be disappointed with this. I think this a little too much of a lead but republicans have a bunch of nobody's.

[DrScholl]

Not a toss-up.

[SWE]

Likely D. Of all the possible R pick ups, this is the least likely