Hillary's Prospects in Missouri

[JRP1994]

Evidence that she would play well in Missouri:

• Obama BARELY lost it in 2008, and she could better appeal to the culturally southern voters than Obama could.
• She would likely do better in the southern Missouri counties that border Arkansas.
• She's currently leading in Iowa (D+1) and Arkansas (R+14), so logic would suggest that she would play well in the state that lies in between those two - Missouri (R+5)

Evidence that she would NOT play well in Missouri:

• It's trending Republican.
• Bill Clinton underperformed his national margin in 1996.
• Gore (a southerner from an almost-neighboring state) couldn't hold it.
• Obama lost it despite winning the national vote by 7.2%
• She lost the 2008 Dem Primary in Missouri to Obama

What say you? How does Clinton fare in Missouri? 

[Joshgreen]

If she's winning by 7+ nationally, it's in the bag.

[TDAS04]

I think she could win it if she wins the national popular vote by a big enough margin (perhaps 6-8 points), but I'm pretty sure that it will still be more Republican than the national average.

I wouldn't be surprised if Missouri and Arkansas vote with similar margins with Hillary as the Democratic candidate, but I would still give the Republican the edge in both.  The GOP will link her with Obama, and Obama lost by big enough margins in 2012 that might make it difficult for any Democrat to make up enough ground to win these states.

[Cranberry]

I don't think the GOP could really link her too much with Obama.
And still, we definitely mustn't underestimate her appeal to traditional upper southern Democrats trending Republican in the last few elections. They are about the age to remember Bill as president fairly well, and should be enough to give her at least Missouri, and make Arkansas, Kentucky, maybe even Tennessee (I wouldn't dare saying WV) close states. And maybe she even wins in Arkansas, maybe even in Kentucky?

[IceSpear]

I think if she's winning by 4-5 points overall, MO is a total toss up. If she's winning by more, it's likely going to go for her.

[SWE]

I don't think the GOP could really link her too much with Obama.

I think they'd have a fairly easy time linking her to an administration she was a part of.

[NewYorkExpress]

She'll need to win by double digits nationally to win the state, and to force Republicans to put money in she'll probably need to win by 7-9 nationally... Not worth it... Arizona and maybe Georgia are better bets.

[pbrower2a]

She seems to have Arizona and Georgia as tossups.  In recent years those states have voted much like Missouri in Presidential elections.    

Indiana is potentially a good analogue of Missouri, except that it gets polled little.

[MurrayBannerman]

If she's winning by 7+ nationally, it's in the bag.

Watch out guys! She's polling strong in early 2014!

[IceSpear]

She'll need to win by double digits nationally to win the state, and to force Republicans to put money in she'll probably need to win by 7-9 nationally... Not worth it... Arizona and maybe Georgia are better bets.

Where are you getting these numbers? Obama won the national vote by 7 and MO was a virtual tie. Hillary would likely do better there relative to her national vote than Obama did.

[NewYorkExpress]

She'll need to win by double digits nationally to win the state, and to force Republicans to put money in she'll probably need to win by 7-9 nationally... Not worth it... Arizona and maybe Georgia are better bets.

Where are you getting these numbers? Obama won the national vote by 7 and MO was a virtual tie. Hillary would likely do better there relative to her national vote than Obama did.

Obama was also running in a much different environment, for Democrats than 2016 will be.

If Hillary's going after any state outside of the Obama 2008/2012 coalition, it really should be Georgia or Arizona, which are trending towards her, and other Democrats, not away.

[badgate]

If she's winning by 7+ nationally, it's in the bag.

Watch out guys! She's polling strong in early 2014!

[Heimdal]

I think Hillary’s chances in Republican or Republican-leaning states are overrated.

There aren’t any important policy issues where she differs from Barack Obama. To win these states she must at least be perceived as being a more conservative candidate than Obama. That would be all right if she had the political gifts of her husband, which she doesn’t. Of course all bets are off if she actually wins by 7-9% nationally.

The good news for the Democrats is of course that they don’t need Missouri to win. Their money would probably be better spent in Florida and North Carolina, maybe even Georgia if the political climate favors them in 2016.

[Oakvale]

Missourians have not forgotten about Benghazi.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

• She's currently leading in Iowa (D+1) and Arkansas (R+14)

Source? I don't believe we've seen a legitimate poll with her leading in AR.

[SWE]

Obama's 2012 map+ NC, AZ, and GA is pretty much the best case scenario for Hillary

[Cory]

I'm pretty sure that if it's enough of a national wave Hilary will win Missouri if she wins Georgia.

[Mr. Illini]

Depends on who the Dem is, but she's got a shot. For her, I think it is next to tip after North Carolina.

[Badger]

Obama's 2012 map+ NC, AZ, and GA is pretty much the best case scenario for Hillary

Her best case scenario includes losing NC?

[badgate]

Obama's 2012 map+ NC, AZ, and GA is pretty much the best case scenario for Hillary

Her best case scenario includes losing NC?

He's saying the ceiling is Obama's 332 plus the states of NC, AZ, and GA.

[Suburbia]

I think she could win MO due to her Arkansas roots and if the political climate is right.

[Frodo]

Obama's 2012 map+ NC, AZ, and GA is pretty much the best case scenario for Hillary