IL-Gov: Candidate raising no money may do well against Quinn

[Mr. Illini]

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http://www.illinoisobserver.net/2014/03/13/poll-gov-pat-quinn-opponent-drawing-big-protest-vote/

This is very bad news for the Governor.

[IceSpear]

With a no name candidate doing so well in the primary, it's really strange Quinn didn't get a legitimate challenger. Same with Corbett in PA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Corrupt Blago in 2006 didn't get one either. When it comes to incumbant Dem govs, as Hynes found out, the opposition will get no where because of the incumbant has advantages is Cook County.

[CatoMinor]

If the GOP blows this race the Illinois GOP might as well disband.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dillard was far more electable than Rauner, and even Edgar endorsed him. Now, they are going into general with the weaker candidate.

[muon2]

If the GOP blows this race the Illinois GOP might as well disband.

Given the lack of unity in this primary race some might question whether they are banded to begin with.

[Joshgreen]

0% undecided? Junk poll!

[hopper]

If the GOP blows this race the Illinois GOP might as well disband.

The GOP is pretty much competitive everywhere else in the state but Cook County.

[Franzl]

If the GOP blows this race the Illinois GOP might as well disband.

I have this feeling after every slam dunk election the Illinois GOP winds up losing, but they've never come to this reasonable conclusion.

[Badger]

If the GOP blows this race the Illinois GOP might as well disband.

The GOP is pretty much competitive everywhere else in the state but Cook County.

Which as the 2010 govs race map shows, is damn near all the Dems need.

Any ideas if this no name might carry some counties from Quinn in the primary? If so, which ones?

[Joshgreen]

If the GOP blows this race the Illinois GOP might as well disband.

The GOP is pretty much competitive everywhere else in the state but Cook County.

Which as the 2010 govs race map shows, is damn near all the Dems need.

Any ideas if this no name might carry some counties from Quinn in the primary? If so, which ones?

I would honestly be surprised if Quinn does as poorly as the poll suggests... Hard partisans will be voting and partisan Ds in Illinois aren't going to be voting for a no-name against the sitting Governor.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

If the GOP blows this race the Illinois GOP might as well disband.

The GOP is pretty much competitive everywhere else in the state but Cook County.

Which as the 2010 govs race map shows, is damn near all the Dems need.

Any ideas if this no name might carry some counties from Quinn in the primary? If so, which ones?

Probably a few in the Demosaur areas in Little Egypt if anything.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dillard was the electable one. He would of carried Dupage. Now they are going with a businessman, instead of an elected official.

[ilikeverin]

If the GOP blows this race the Illinois GOP might as well disband.

Given the lack of unity in this primary race some might question whether they are banded to begin with.

I see room for a certain dark horse!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Dillard was the electable one. He would of carried Dupage. Now they are going with a businessman, instead of an elected official.

Because well to do suburbia hates them some businessmen very much. Any Republican should carry DuPage against Quinn. If Brady could carry it in 2010, then any non-Brady Republican should.

That said, I agree, Dillard was better. The game is getting to 64% in DuPage and to 59% in Lake as well as doing reasonably well in the suburbs within Cook.

[hopper]

If the GOP blows this race the Illinois GOP might as well disband.

The GOP is pretty much competitive everywhere else in the state but Cook County.

Which as the 2010 govs race map shows, is damn near all the Dems need.

Any ideas if this no name might carry some counties from Quinn in the primary? If so, which ones?

Yeah but I wasn't necessarily reffering to the Governor Race in my post. The post I was replying to said the State GOP should disband if they lose the governors race this year. I just don't think the GOP is that irrevelant in Illinois politics(at least not yet.) The Illinois GOP is not like the New York GOP or the California GOP state parties.

The politics in Illinois kind of reminds me of politics in my state.

[hopper]

Dillard was the electable one. He would of carried Dupage. Now they are going with a businessman, instead of an elected official.

Because well to do suburbia hates them some businessmen very much. Any Republican should carry DuPage against Quinn. If Brady could carry it in 2010, then any non-Brady Republican should.

That said, I agree, Dillard was better. The game is getting to 64% in DuPage and to 59% in Lake as well as doing reasonably well in the suburbs within Cook.

Yeah to expand on  that I was wondering where in Cook County the population has grown the most in 2011-2012/2013. If its Southern Chicago the GOP is not in that bad of shape. Lipinski's district is only D+5 in Southern Chicago. Than again if its Northern Chicago where the population has grown most the GOP is in deep trouble. I think Northern Chicago is where the city is most liberal. Lipinksi's district as well as Mike Quigley's they are not as Dem as you would expect for Congressional Districts based in a city. Danny Davis's, Robin Kelly's, and Bobby Rush's districts are the most Dem in Chicago.

[muon2]

Cook county's population is about half Chicago and half suburban townships. Growth since 2010 is only about 0.35%/year according to census estimates and is fairly evenly divided between city and townships, and no township stands out for high growth since it's all mostly built up. Thus, the 2010 precinct results are a fairly good place to start a forecast for 2014.

The Cook County Clerk put out a detailed report after the 2010 general election, and the maps of precinct results show the relative party strengths in the county. Here are the maps from both the Gov's race as well as Kirk's win for US Senate. The comparison between the two gives a sense of the difference between a narrow loss and narrow win for the Pub in a statewide race.

[Mr. Illini]

Dillard was the electable one. He would of carried Dupage. Now they are going with a businessman, instead of an elected official.

Because well to do suburbia hates them some businessmen very much. Any Republican should carry DuPage against Quinn. If Brady could carry it in 2010, then any non-Brady Republican should.

That said, I agree, Dillard was better. The game is getting to 64% in DuPage and to 59% in Lake as well as doing reasonably well in the suburbs within Cook.

Yeah to expand on  that I was wondering where in Cook County the population has grown the most in 2011-2012/2013. If its Southern Chicago the GOP is not in that bad of shape. Lipinski's district is only D+5 in Southern Chicago. Than again if its Northern Chicago where the population has grown most the GOP is in deep trouble. I think Northern Chicago is where the city is most liberal. Lipinksi's district as well as Mike Quigley's they are not as Dem as you would expect for Congressional Districts based in a city. Danny Davis's, Robin Kelly's, and Bobby Rush's districts are the most Dem in Chicago.

I would argue that the northern half of the city is more liberal whereas the southern half of the city is more Democrat.