How many Democratic US Senators will be left from the Deep South?

[TDAS04]

By Deep South, I mean LA, MS, AL, GA, & SC.

How many of the 10 senate seats will be in Democratic hands after the upcoming elections?

[Flake]

I think Landrieu will hold on and Nunn wins a Senate seat,  so two.

[TDAS04]

I think 0 is a real possibility.  Landrieu always won narrowly, and she may not survive this time.  Democrats may also be overoptimistic about Nunn. 

[SWE]

I think Landrieu will hold on and Nunn wins a Senate seat,  so two.

[ElectionsGuy]

1 at best (Landrieu), 0 at worst.

[Joshgreen]

3 at best (Neoconfederate melts down in MS, Nunn wins, Landrieu holds on) or 0 at worst. If miracles did happen, it could be 4 (if we got a white to run against Uncle Tom Tim Scott).

[IceSpear]

I think there's a better than 50% either Landrieu OR Nunn wins, plus there's a shot at an upset in MS. I said 1.

[RTX]

3 at best (Neoconfederate melts down in MS, Nunn wins, Landrieu holds on) or 0 at worst. If miracles did happen, it could be 4 (if we got a white to run against Uncle Tom Tim Scott).

A typical racist liberal's view of a black person who has a different political opinion than their own

[Flake]

3 at best (Neoconfederate melts down in MS, Nunn wins, Landrieu holds on) or 0 at worst. If miracles did happen, it could be 4 (if we got a white to run against Uncle Tom Tim Scott).

Can you not?

[LeBron]

3 at best (Neoconfederate melts down in MS, Nunn wins, Landrieu holds on) or 0 at worst. If miracles did happen, it could be 4 (if we got a white to run against Uncle Tom Tim Scott).

OMG really? Ignoring the disrespectful, racist comment, there's nobody who can beat Tim Scott. Even Jim Hodges would probably lose against him.

And it's optimistic, but I said 2. Landrieu has managed to narrowly hold on before and get over 50% and even the time that she didn't, she still won in the runoff. As long as there's no 2nd Democrat that enters the jungle primary, the Republican vote should be split enough between Cassidy the few others for Landrieu to eek out a win and avoid a runoff. As for GA, McConnell, while unpopular, won't be making the kind of gaffes Nunn's opponents will and it seems unlikely for Grimes to win unless McConnell does get primaried. Nunn is a great fundraiser and GA is friendlier to Democrats then the other states in the deep South, so I feel there's a great pickup opportunity there. And those who think we could pickup MS are fooling themselves.

[Bojack Horseman]

3 at best (Neoconfederate melts down in MS, Nunn wins, Landrieu holds on) or 0 at worst. If miracles did happen, it could be 4 (if we got a white to run against Uncle Tom Tim Scott).

A typical racist liberal's view of a black person who has a different political opinion than their own

PFFT! The Governor's race in Mississippi pitted a White Republican vs. a Black Democrat. The vote was 61-39 R, meaning the vote was split almost entirely down racial lines. You cannot tell me that race has nothing to do with Southern politics.

[Zioneer]

Nunn. (get it, it's supposed to be a pun)

[RogueBeaver]

None.

[NewYorkExpress]

1, because I include Florida in the deep south and they do a Democratic Senator (Bill Nelson, might have heard of him?)

[free my dawg]

One. I have Landrieu losing and Nunn winning.

[Joshgreen]

3 at best (Neoconfederate melts down in MS, Nunn wins, Landrieu holds on) or 0 at worst. If miracles did happen, it could be 4 (if we got a white to run against Uncle Tom Tim Scott).

OMG really? Ignoring the disrespectful, racist comment, there's nobody who can beat Tim Scott. Even Jim Hodges would probably lose.

The comment is neither racist, nor disrespectful. It's the sad truth. You're deluding yourself if you think Tim Scott wouldn't have a hard time against a white Democrat. Even Nikki Haley (who looks white) had a hard time in 2010. Tim Scott would be in legitimate trouble against a white opponent.

[free my dawg]

3 at best (Neoconfederate melts down in MS, Nunn wins, Landrieu holds on) or 0 at worst. If miracles did happen, it could be 4 (if we got a white to run against Uncle Tom Tim Scott).

OMG really? Ignoring the disrespectful, racist comment, there's nobody who can beat Tim Scott. Even Jim Hodges would probably lose.

The comment is neither racist, nor disrespectful. It's the sad truth. You're deluding yourself if you think Tim Scott wouldn't have a hard time against a white Democrat. Even Nikki Haley (who looks white) had a hard time in 2010. Tim Scott would be in legitimate trouble against a white opponent.

And there's #29 on the ignore list...

[Joshgreen]

3 at best (Neoconfederate melts down in MS, Nunn wins, Landrieu holds on) or 0 at worst. If miracles did happen, it could be 4 (if we got a white to run against Uncle Tom Tim Scott).

OMG really? Ignoring the disrespectful, racist comment, there's nobody who can beat Tim Scott. Even Jim Hodges would probably lose.

The comment is neither racist, nor disrespectful. It's the sad truth. You're deluding yourself if you think Tim Scott wouldn't have a hard time against a white Democrat. Even Nikki Haley (who looks white) had a hard time in 2010. Tim Scott would be in legitimate trouble against a white opponent.

And there's #29 on the ignore list...

Are you seriously arguing against that? How can you possibly believe otherwise? Explain yourself.

[free my dawg]

3 at best (Neoconfederate melts down in MS, Nunn wins, Landrieu holds on) or 0 at worst. If miracles did happen, it could be 4 (if we got a white to run against Uncle Tom Tim Scott).

OMG really? Ignoring the disrespectful, racist comment, there's nobody who can beat Tim Scott. Even Jim Hodges would probably lose.

The comment is neither racist, nor disrespectful. It's the sad truth. You're deluding yourself if you think Tim Scott wouldn't have a hard time against a white Democrat. Even Nikki Haley (who looks white) had a hard time in 2010. Tim Scott would be in legitimate trouble against a white opponent.

And there's #29 on the ignore list...

Are you seriously arguing against that? How can you possibly believe otherwise? Explain yourself.

Because it's South Carolina.

[Joshgreen]

3 at best (Neoconfederate melts down in MS, Nunn wins, Landrieu holds on) or 0 at worst. If miracles did happen, it could be 4 (if we got a white to run against Uncle Tom Tim Scott).

OMG really? Ignoring the disrespectful, racist comment, there's nobody who can beat Tim Scott. Even Jim Hodges would probably lose.

The comment is neither racist, nor disrespectful. It's the sad truth. You're deluding yourself if you think Tim Scott wouldn't have a hard time against a white Democrat. Even Nikki Haley (who looks white) had a hard time in 2010. Tim Scott would be in legitimate trouble against a white opponent.

And there's #29 on the ignore list...

Are you seriously arguing against that? How can you possibly believe otherwise? Explain yourself.

Because it's South Carolina.

So how can you explain Haley dramatic underperformance? This isn't some theory I've pulled out of a hat, the Haley thing has been widely discussed. Even the White Democrat-Tim Scott scenario is not of my making.

[free my dawg]

3 at best (Neoconfederate melts down in MS, Nunn wins, Landrieu holds on) or 0 at worst. If miracles did happen, it could be 4 (if we got a white to run against Uncle Tom Tim Scott).

OMG really? Ignoring the disrespectful, racist comment, there's nobody who can beat Tim Scott. Even Jim Hodges would probably lose.

The comment is neither racist, nor disrespectful. It's the sad truth. You're deluding yourself if you think Tim Scott wouldn't have a hard time against a white Democrat. Even Nikki Haley (who looks white) had a hard time in 2010. Tim Scott would be in legitimate trouble against a white opponent.

And there's #29 on the ignore list...

Are you seriously arguing against that? How can you possibly believe otherwise? Explain yourself.

Because it's South Carolina.

So how can you explain Haley dramatic underperformance? This isn't some theory I've pulled out of a hat, the Haley thing has been widely discussed. Even the White Democrat-Tim Scott scenario is not of my making.

Gubernatorial elections and Senate elections are two different things, and much more polar (especially nowadays). Sheheen is a ConservaDem from the 5th district, which is more friendly too Democrats at the state level than the federal level. He ran his margins up in areas that are ancestrally Democratic, but that wasn't enough because the SCGOP has a 47-48% floor right now. Everything would have to go just right for Sheheen to win.

Ignoring your obviously racist Uncle Tom comment, making an assumption that Tim Scott would lose because he's black is pretty anti-South, so yeah. I'll leave it at that.

[Joshgreen]

3 at best (Neoconfederate melts down in MS, Nunn wins, Landrieu holds on) or 0 at worst. If miracles did happen, it could be 4 (if we got a white to run against Uncle Tom Tim Scott).

OMG really? Ignoring the disrespectful, racist comment, there's nobody who can beat Tim Scott. Even Jim Hodges would probably lose.

The comment is neither racist, nor disrespectful. It's the sad truth. You're deluding yourself if you think Tim Scott wouldn't have a hard time against a white Democrat. Even Nikki Haley (who looks white) had a hard time in 2010. Tim Scott would be in legitimate trouble against a white opponent.

And there's #29 on the ignore list...

Are you seriously arguing against that? How can you possibly believe otherwise? Explain yourself.

Because it's South Carolina.

So how can you explain Haley dramatic underperformance? This isn't some theory I've pulled out of a hat, the Haley thing has been widely discussed. Even the White Democrat-Tim Scott scenario is not of my making.

Gubernatorial elections and Senate elections are two different things, and much more polar (especially nowadays). Sheheen is a ConservaDem from the 5th district, which is more friendly too Democrats at the state level than the federal level. He ran his margins up in areas that are ancestrally Democratic, but that wasn't enough because the SCGOP has a 47-48% floor right now. Everything would have to go just right for Sheheen to win.

Ignoring your obviously racist Uncle Tom comment, making an assumption that Tim Scott would lose because he's black is pretty anti-South, so yeah. I'll leave it at that.

I guess we'll just have to disagree.

[morgieb]

Gonna be the pessimist and say 0.

3 at the most, though the 3rd is obviously quite unlikely.

[Donerail]

1, because I include Florida in the deep south and they do a Democratic Senator (Bill Nelson, might have heard of him?)

You should not.

I voted 3, because I'm fully confident in the ability of particular elements of the Republican Party (McDaniel and Broun in particular) to screw up races they should win.

[Mechaman]

Zero.

The Democratic brand is DEAD in the Deep South at the moment.  Nunn's chances are highly overstated and Landrieu is looking to be the next Blanche Lincoln.  I could see either/both of them somehow winning, but only if the GOP really screws up the next few months.  The Democrats will need to look for opportunities to expand elsewhere for the time being.  There is a way to win some Southern states without turning the party into moderate heroism but the fundraising base probably wouldn't like the strategy.  Namely, get very serious about overturning Citizens United and taking a stronger stance on economic populism.  The South has the lowest voter turnout in the nation and if people get the idea that the Democrats are actually serious about Social Justice they could turn out in high numbers.  I mean, all those bad stats you guys list?  You think all of those people are Republicans?  Chances are, given how polarized the South is by measures like class and race, more than a few of those people are Democrats who don't bother voting under the impression that the vote means nothing.  Ds need to work on the impression that it does mean something, which I believe is where their strategy is failing.  You can't count on Republicans being dumb forever guys.