MS: Chris McDaniel vs. Travis Childers, who wins?

[ElectionsGuy]

McDaniel, but by a narrow margin Mississippi hasn't seen in a while, like 52-47.

This is of course a hypothetical. I think Cochran will win the primary, in which he is of course safe for re-election.

[Joshgreen]

If McDaniel wins the primary he is liable to say some pretty horrendous things (or horrendous things from his past will surface), but Mississippi is very inelastic so he would still be favorite. At that point it would be a race though.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I'm having doubts that Cochran survives. He's starting out much worse in the polls than Lugar was when that primary started, and we all know how that turned out for him. But assuming McDaniels wins the primary, he would have to melt down so spectacularly that an ungodly fusion of Richard Mourdock and Todd Akin would look sane by comparison for Childers to be able to win.

[SWE]

McDaniel would be favored, but he'd certainly make it close

[Badger]

McDaniel would win by a margin only a couple points less than Romney.

[morgieb]

Would be more of a race than it needs to be, but I still say McDaniel.

[7,052,770]

I wish PPP would poll so we'd have some idea.  Right now, it's all just guessing.

I think it's very likely that Cochran survives, though.  Gene Taylor's "defection" probably clinched it.

[7,052,770]

My back-of-the-envelope number crunching tells me this is what Childers would need to beat McDaniel. Consider these this approximate, since turnout won't be identical in all 4 districts, and obviously he can win without hitting all 4 marks if he exceeds one somewhere:

1. Get 54% of the vote in District 1. This would be running 17 points ahead of Obama '12, but it's actually slightly less than the % who voted for him in his House victory in 2008. If Childers is going to have a shot, he has to get Northeastern rural whites to vote for him again.
2. Get 67% of the vote in District 2. This is a 63.5% black district and shouldn't be a reach. He would need a good black turnout, but 67% is less than a point ahead of Obama '12.
3. Get 42% of the vote in District 3. This would be only 3 points ahead of Obama '12.
3. Get 42% of the vote in District 4. This is the longshot -- it's 11 points ahead of Obama '12, and McDaniel is from the Northern fringe of this district. However, it's several points behind Gene Taylor's worst finish (2010), and McDaniel's Katrina comments are really going to bite him in the ass.

If he can do all 4 of these things, he should get 50-51% of the vote.  There won't be any contested House races anywhere in the state, nor are there any state or local races or initiatives coming up in 2014, so this will be the only notable race to draw people to the ballot.

And to reiterate, this is probably moot, since Cochran is very likely to be renominated.

[Indy Texas]

My back-of-the-envelope number crunching tells me this is what Childers would need to beat McDaniel. Consider these this approximate, since turnout won't be identical in all 4 districts, and obviously he can win without hitting all 4 marks if he exceeds one somewhere:

1. Get 54% of the vote in District 1. This would be running 17 points ahead of Obama '12, but it's actually slightly less than the % who voted for him in his House victory in 2008. If Childers is going to have a shot, he has to get Northeastern rural whites to vote for him again.
2. Get 67% of the vote in District 2. This is a 63.5% black district and shouldn't be a reach. He would need a good black turnout, but 67% is less than a point ahead of Obama '12.
3. Get 42% of the vote in District 3. This would be only 3 points ahead of Obama '12.
3. Get 42% of the vote in District 4. This is the longshot -- it's 11 points ahead of Obama '12, and McDaniel is from the Northern fringe of this district. However, it's several points behind Gene Taylor's worst finish (2010), and McDaniel's Katrina comments are really going to bite him in the ass.

If he can do all 4 of these things, he should get 50-51% of the vote.  There won't be any contested House races anywhere in the state, nor are there any state or local races or initiatives coming up in 2014, so this will be the only notable race to draw people to the ballot.

And to reiterate, this is probably moot, since Cochran is very likely to be renominated.

I think a more useful question to ask regarding a Childers-McDaniel matchup is,

What percentage of the white vote would Childers need to win?

[Joshgreen]

My back-of-the-envelope number crunching tells me this is what Childers would need to beat McDaniel. Consider these this approximate, since turnout won't be identical in all 4 districts, and obviously he can win without hitting all 4 marks if he exceeds one somewhere:

1. Get 54% of the vote in District 1. This would be running 17 points ahead of Obama '12, but it's actually slightly less than the % who voted for him in his House victory in 2008. If Childers is going to have a shot, he has to get Northeastern rural whites to vote for him again.
2. Get 67% of the vote in District 2. This is a 63.5% black district and shouldn't be a reach. He would need a good black turnout, but 67% is less than a point ahead of Obama '12.
3. Get 42% of the vote in District 3. This would be only 3 points ahead of Obama '12.
3. Get 42% of the vote in District 4. This is the longshot -- it's 11 points ahead of Obama '12, and McDaniel is from the Northern fringe of this district. However, it's several points behind Gene Taylor's worst finish (2010), and McDaniel's Katrina comments are really going to bite him in the ass.

If he can do all 4 of these things, he should get 50-51% of the vote.  There won't be any contested House races anywhere in the state, nor are there any state or local races or initiatives coming up in 2014, so this will be the only notable race to draw people to the ballot.

And to reiterate, this is probably moot, since Cochran is very likely to be renominated.

I think a more useful question to ask regarding a Childers-McDaniel matchup is,

What percentage of the white vote would Childers need to win?

Probably 25% due to a slight decline in black turnout.

[Miles]

For Childers, I'm worried about CD2 the most, actually. It cast the least amount of votes even in 2012, IIRC, and Thompson being unopposed won't help that.

[7,052,770]

Around 25% sounds right.  But it won't be evenly dispersed through the state.

Obama got 11% of the white vote in 2012 in a map that looked something like this:


Childers would have to pack in as many votes as he could in the more Democratic-friendly (and whiter) Northeast and then try to pick off some votes in the 3 Coast counties (an endorsement from Gene Taylor would help, along with never letting anyone forget McDaniel's Katrina comments).  Also, a bad McDaniel gaffe or 2 (pretty likely) would allow Childers to pick up votes in counties like Madison, Rankin, and DeSoto, which are the suburban usually-Republican counties that voted down Personhood, for example.

[IceSpear]

McDaniel most likely, but I think it would be within single digits.

[NewYorkExpress]

Let's be honest, if McDaniel loses this, the Republican party shouldn't exist.

[RTX]

When is the primary?

[ElectionsGuy]

When is the primary?

June 3rd. The runoff would be June 24th, but since its just McDaniel and Cochran (filing deadline was March 1st) that won't be possible.

[LeBron]

I still think McDaniel would win if there's really as low turnout from MS-2 as expected. Even in this situation, I would still advise against coming in here to help Childers because for one, it's really not worth throwing a lot of money in for an average, Bluedog Democrat and if McDaniel did succeed in the end, it would only hurt the Republican Party's image more in the long run with someone like McDaniel to further promote the Tea Party agenda while giving the Tea Party a "pickup" from the establishment among Senate Republicans alone, so it wouldn't be all that bad for Democrats.

With that aside though, I really hope Cochran pulls it out in the primary so that Childers can just drop out and we can take our attention elsewhere on more important races.

[Joshgreen]

I still think McDaniel would win if there's really as low turnout from MS-2 as expected. Even in this situation, I would still advise against coming in here to help Childers because for one, it's really not worth throwing a lot of money in for an average, Bluedog Democrat and if McDaniel did succeed in the end, it would only hurt the Republican Party's image more in the long run with someone like McDaniel to further promote the Tea Party agenda while giving the Tea Party a "pickup" from the establishment among Senate Republicans alone, so it wouldn't be all that bad for Democrats.

With that aside though, I really hope Cochran pulls it out in the primary so that Childers can just drop out and we can take our attention elsewhere on more important races.

I will never understand this type of thinking. The more elected positions these lunatics hold, the more their ideas are legitimized in the eyes of the low-info types. We shouldn't be conceding these races to Neoconfederate lunatics.

[nclib]

I still think McDaniel would win if there's really as low turnout from MS-2 as expected. Even in this situation, I would still advise against coming in here to help Childers because for one, it's really not worth throwing a lot of money in for an average, Bluedog Democrat and if McDaniel did succeed in the end, it would only hurt the Republican Party's image more in the long run with someone like McDaniel to further promote the Tea Party agenda while giving the Tea Party a "pickup" from the establishment among Senate Republicans alone, so it wouldn't be all that bad for Democrats.

With that aside though, I really hope Cochran pulls it out in the primary so that Childers can just drop out and we can take our attention elsewhere on more important races.

I will never understand this type of thinking. The more elected positions these lunatics hold, the more their ideas are legitimized in the eyes of the low-info types. We shouldn't be conceding these races to Neoconfederate lunatics.

Yes, but Neo-confederatism is still farther out than the rest of the Tea Party, and is only popular in the Deep South. That said, I don't want McDaniel in the Senate, or investing too much money in getting Childers elected.

Harry, what order would you give the Romney counties in likelihood to flip to Childers?

[7,052,770]

Harry, what order would you give the Romney counties in likelihood to flip to Childers?

Here are maps of Childers' House elections in 2008 and 2010, along with the 2008 (left) and 2012 (right) presidential elections:

   

Prentiss County, which went for Childers even in 2010 would have to be the most likely. It is his home county. After that, I'd look at the counties that at least gave Childers 60% in 2008 -- Monroe and Yalobusha.  While Ole Miss isn't known for being particularly liberal or anything, I would think he'd have a decent shot in Lafayette County as well, just because it's one of the most well-educated counties in the state.

Against McDaniel, I would expect Childers to win most of the counties he did in 2008. Nunnelee is a good candidate for the district. McDaniel (and Davis) aren't. The question is whether he can win enough votes up there to flip the state.

Another possible target would be Harrison and Jackson Counties on the Coast -- both 60% Romney counties, but McDaniel's Katrina comments are going to bite him. Forrest County could flip for the similar reasons that the both Coast counties and Lafayette County could flip.

[Del Tachi]

McDaniel is probably a slight favorite, but it would be foolish for the Democrats to not invest in Childers in this scenario.

The northeastern corner of the state is crucial to Childers winning statewide.  I think the rest of the votes he needs to flip the state come from the Golden Triangle area.  I see Lafayette County and the Coast as a long-shot for Childers, whereas Oktibbeha and Lowndes Counties represent a more "malleable" electorate in Childers' favor.  He could probably pick up some "outer-Delta" counties like Grenada and Carroll County too.     

[windjammer]

My back-of-the-envelope number crunching tells me this is what Childers would need to beat McDaniel. Consider these this approximate, since turnout won't be identical in all 4 districts, and obviously he can win without hitting all 4 marks if he exceeds one somewhere:

1. Get 54% of the vote in District 1. This would be running 17 points ahead of Obama '12, but it's actually slightly less than the % who voted for him in his House victory in 2008. If Childers is going to have a shot, he has to get Northeastern rural whites to vote for him again.
2. Get 67% of the vote in District 2. This is a 63.5% black district and shouldn't be a reach. He would need a good black turnout, but 67% is less than a point ahead of Obama '12.
3. Get 42% of the vote in District 3. This would be only 3 points ahead of Obama '12.
3. Get 42% of the vote in District 4. This is the longshot -- it's 11 points ahead of Obama '12, and McDaniel is from the Northern fringe of this district. However, it's several points behind Gene Taylor's worst finish (2010), and McDaniel's Katrina comments are really going to bite him in the ass.

If he can do all 4 of these things, he should get 50-51% of the vote.  There won't be any contested House races anywhere in the state, nor are there any state or local races or initiatives coming up in 2014, so this will be the only notable race to draw people to the ballot.

And to reiterate, this is probably moot, since Cochran is very likely to be renominated.

Don't worry Harry, Mississippi will soon vote for democratic candidates!

[Fuzzy Bear]

White voters in MS are almost as partisan toward the GOP as Black voters are toward the Democrats.  This hasn't always been the case, but it's a straight ticket thing now. 

If there were a coterie of Southern Democrats that had conservative record, Childers would have a shot.  But MS voters understand that politics has become ideologized and nationalized, and that if you elect a Democrat to the Senate from your state, he/she may have some conservative window dressing, but their presence is going to forward the Obama agenda, if only procedurally, and in a stealth manner.  Childers' election helps Obama.  MS white conservatives, and even their white moderates (moderate by MS standards) get that, and they don't want that to happen.

[Suburbia]

McDaniel may still win because it's Mississippi, but if he says more toxic statements by October, Childers could pull closer to McDaniel.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

At this point, probably McDaniel, although I have feeling Childers would beat him after he makes some Akin or Mourdock-style gaffes.