ID-2:Democrat Richard Stallings Mounts Congressional Bid

[Incipimus iterum]

http://magicvalley.com/news/local/democrat-richard-stallings-mounts-congressional-bid/article_5d9531d3-f528-5817-a0c0-01bd1255116c.html

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[Maxwell]

This should make things a bit interesting, but he's 73 now, so probably not too interesting.

[Incipimus iterum]

This should make things a bit interesting, but he's 73 now, so probably not too interesting.

Well Mike Simpson the incumbent is facing a strong tea party challenger, so who knows if he loses the seat might be in play, iirc Stallings was one of the socially conservative democrats on issued like abortion. I even meet Stallings last night he seems like a excellent candidate.

[Hifly]

Best of luck to him.

[windjammer]

Why was Idaho so democrat?

[Incipimus iterum]

Why was Idaho so democrat?

Good question the reason was the unions in north idaho in the state had big influence, and we had good canidates Cecil Andrus governor from 1971-1977, 1987-1995, untill the reagan years in which frank church was defeated, it went pretty downhill from there and the GOP pretty much has held total power for 20 years.

[Torie]

Why was Idaho so democrat?

Once upon a time, LDS members did not vote as a block for one party. And yes, mining/lumberjacking faded in importance, and yes, then lots of new folks moved in, fleeing places in which they no longer felt comfortable with, e.g., the changing demographics, in particular CA, and well, they didn't vote Dem typically. And then the farm workers in the Snake Valley potato growing belt turned Hispanic, and often temporary guest workers or illegal, and so that demographic cohort just ceased to vote, unlike perhaps the ones they replaced that used to do that kind of work, and when they did, tended to vote Dem. However, as most counties in Idaho moved Pub, with the LDS zone in the SE moving very, very, Pub, one county moved the other way, and in a quite dramatic fashion, which also happens to be by far the richest county in the state. No doubt you can guess which one, can't you, and why?  Of course you can!  (In fact, counties of its ilk trended Dem right across the Fruited Plain, almost without exception.) 

[hopper]

Dems have a little stronger track record in ID-01 than ID-02.

[ElectionsGuy]

This doesn't really change anything.

[publicunofficial]

Idaho Dems are stuck in a terrible state to be in, but at the very least they consistently put up good candidates.

[Fuzzy Bear]

As I recall, Stallings ran for the Senate in 1992 for the open seat of the retiring Sen. Steven Symms.  He lost to Republican Dirk Kempthorne, and it wasn't particularly close.  He tried to win his old seat back in 1998, but lost.

I hope he wins.  Stallings is a moderately conservative Democrat that may have appeal to some grown up voters tired of the scorched Earth policies of the forces that drive the current GOP majority.  I'm not betting the farm, however.  Our politics has become more ideological and partisan since 1994, and certainly since 2010.  Stallings would need the luck of the incumbent losing his primary to a guy who will turn out to be the Doofus of Doofuses.

[Meeker]

This is Idaho in a midterm with Barack Obama in the White House. Don't be silly.

[Fuzzy Bear]

If the challenger wins the GOP primary, Stallings has SOME potential to "localize" the race.  That would make the race "likely Republican", but that would be better than "safe Republican" for the Stallings partisans.

[LeBron]

It's still safe R. If a former U.S. Congressman himself in Larry LaRocco can't win a Senate seat or even break 40% in Idaho in 2008 during one of the biggest turnouts for Democrats nationwide, then there's zero chance Stallings beats Simpson and I wouldn't see him beating Smith, either. He'll carry Blaine and Teton Counties, but otherwise, Stallings I think is wasting his time. I have to admit though, ID Dems are a lot better than their neighboring WY Dems and have strong candidates for both Labrador and Simpson/Smith.

[Indy Texas]

Once upon a time, LDS members did not vote as a block for one party.

So why did they start?

I never really understood what divided Mormon Republicans and Mormon Democrats prior to the 1980s, when the two parties were still competitive with one another in the Mormon Corridor.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Stallings has a shot at breaking 40 percent if Simpson loses the primary (unlikely).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Why was Idaho so democrat?

Once upon a time, LDS members did not vote as a block for one party. And yes, mining/lumberjacking faded in importance, and yes, then lots of new folks moved in, fleeing places in which they no longer felt comfortable with, e.g., the changing demographics, in particular CA, and well, they didn't vote Dem typically. And then the farm workers in the Snake Valley potato growing belt turned Hispanic, and often temporary guest workers or illegal, and so that demographic cohort just ceased to vote, unlike perhaps the ones they replaced that used to do that kind of work, and when they did, tended to vote Dem. However, as most counties in Idaho moved Pub, with the LDS zone in the SE moving very, very, Pub, one county moved the other way, and in a quite dramatic fashion, which also happens to be by far the richest county in the state. No doubt you can guess which one, can't you, and why?  Of course you can!  (In fact, counties of its ilk trended Dem right across the Fruited Plain, almost without exception.) 

Democrats hold the Governorship continuously from 1971 to 1995 (Andrus, Evans, Andrus again). Frank Church would have defeat Symms for reelection in 1980 if not for the early projection for Reagan, which depressed the Democratic turnout in Idaho (a prime example of results from early states influencing voting in those, where polls opens later).

So yes, Idaho was quite friendly for Democrats on state and congressional level before 1990s. It was diffrent with the presidential, as LBJ is the last Democrat to carry the state (albeit narrowly) back in 1964, which was the first time since Truman sweep of the West in 1948.

Beside of factors mentioned by Torie, Governor Phil Batt, elected in 1994, is frequently credited with rebuilding the Republican machine and helping to turn the state into virtual GOP dominance.

Walt Minnick was a fluke. 2006 gubernatorial election was relatively close (for Idaho standards), but that was 2006.

Republicans are more than safe there.

[smoltchanov]

Obviously - the best possible Democratic candidate. But this may be not enough NOW. 20 years ago that could suffice..

[Deus Naturae]

NRA endorses Simpson.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Having been out of congress for an entire generation really isn't much of a bonus moving forward into a new campaign. The lobbyists have changed, the donors have changed, the issues have changed, the rhetoric has changed, the institution has changed, the parties have changed, and lots of voters who remember him have died.

[publicunofficial]

NRA endorses Simpson.

More to back up Simpson in the primary than the general.

[Miles]

Romney does an ad for Simpson.

[Miles]

The Madison Project calls Simpson a Pelosi Republican in their ad here.

[smoltchanov]

The Madison Project calls Simpson a Pelosi Republican in their ad here.

Additional proof that Madison Project is composed either of fanatics or complete idiots. Simpson is "reasonable conservative" at least...