Senate election in Kentucky

[Senator Cris]

Who will win?

[windjammer]

Team Mitch

[Potatoe]

Team Grimes

[SWE]

Mitch is slightly favored

[sg0508]

Given the "climate" this year, that probably will add 3-5% to Mitch's percentage otherwise.  That could be enough of a difference.  We'll see. I think in the end, he wins with around 54%.

[RogueBeaver]

McConnell comfortably.

[windjammer]

McConnell comfortably.

When you say "comfortably"? By which margin?
According to me it would be more by 5-7 points.

[Potatoe]

People are seriously over estimating McConnell, he's deeply unpopular, and is in dead heat with Grimes in red Kentucky, and McConnell's primary challenge is going to cut into his support severely, the Tea Partiers are going to stay home post McConnell winning the Primary.

[sg0508]

At the end of the day, it's likely to be a GOP-tilting year. Also, like the Republicans typically lose close races in IL, WA, OR, etc, etc...expect the GOP to "come home" in the end. 

[ElectionsGuy]

Mitch McConnell by anywhere from 3 to 8 points.

[Potatoe]

Alright, I'll ask, why do people think McConnell's going to win?

[windjammer]

Alright, I'll ask, why do people think McConnell's going to win?

1) Kentucky is now a republican state federally.
2) Obama is hugely unpopular.
3) Mcconnell is a political killer and has an important war chest.

[Potatoe]

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They also have a Democratic Governor, and a fair few Dem Representatives.

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So is McConnell

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I don't know what Political killer means, so I'll skip to the War Chest:No, he doesn't, the Tea Party wasn't around in '08, so he was able to win again, now, he's facing notable opposition from the same organization he promoted and helped four years earlier.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the case from Nate Cohn, who also wrote a more psephological piece on this subject in TNR last year.

[Joshgreen]

This will be McConnell's toughest race. His approval ratings have never been this low.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the psephological deep-dive from Trende.

[Joshgreen]

Here's the psephological deep-dive from Trende.

I appreciate those articles, etc, but that was written 7 months ago. McConnell is favored, for now, but he's in the most danger he's ever been. Ironically, I would say partly because he's in leadership.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Alright, I'll ask, why do people think McConnell's going to win?

1) Kentucky is now a republican state federally.
2) Obama is hugely unpopular.
3) Mcconnell is a political killer and has an important war chest.  Grimes has yet to hit 47% in any poll and the undecideds would break heavily for McConnell even in a mild Democratic year, which this clearly is not.

FTFY

[Joshgreen]

Alright, I'll ask, why do people think McConnell's going to win?

1) Kentucky is now a republican state federally.
2) Obama is hugely unpopular.
3) Mcconnell is a political killer and has an important war chest.  Grimes has yet to hit 47% in any poll and the undecideds would break heavily for McConnell even in a mild Democratic year, which this clearly is not.

FTFY

You have no evidence of this...

[Potatoe]

Alright, I'll ask, why do people think McConnell's going to win?

1) Kentucky is now a republican state federally.
2) Obama is hugely unpopular.
3) Mcconnell is a political killer and has an important war chest.  Grimes has yet to hit 47% in any poll and the undecideds would break heavily for McConnell even in a mild Democratic year, which this clearly is not.

FTFY

McConnell only got 47% in a poll once......................... a couple of months ago.

[Bojack Horseman]

Grimes defeats the Tortoise in a narrow upset.

[morgieb]

Alright, I'll ask, why do people think McConnell's going to win?

1) Kentucky is now a republican state federally.
2) Obama is hugely unpopular.
3) Mcconnell is a political killer and has an important war chest.  Grimes has yet to hit 47% in any poll and the undecideds would break heavily for McConnell even in a mild Democratic year, which this clearly is not.

FTFY

OTOH, isn't the CW that incumbents break against the incumbent?

I still think McConnell is favoured, but anyone pretending this isn't a race is silly.

[Maxwell]

Put a gun to my head, McConnnell. However, Grimes is certainly going to make it a race.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Alright, I'll ask, why do people think McConnell's going to win?

1) Kentucky is now a republican state federally.
2) Obama is hugely unpopular.
3) Mcconnell is a political killer and has an important war chest.  Grimes has yet to hit 47% in any poll and the undecideds would break heavily for McConnell even in a mild Democratic year, which this clearly is not.

FTFY

McConnell only got 47% in a poll once......................... a couple of months ago.

Right, but Kentucky undecideds will break his way and by a solid amount.  Grimes needs to be close enough without undecideds that she only needs to gain a few percentage points from undecideds (at absolute most) to put her over 50%.  McConnell can bank on a number of so-called undecideds coming home in late September/early October while also winning true undecideds by a decent amount.  It'll be close and McConnell will have to spend a s***-load of money, but Grimes will lose.

[Potatoe]

Alright, I'll ask, why do people think McConnell's going to win?

1) Kentucky is now a republican state federally.
2) Obama is hugely unpopular.
3) Mcconnell is a political killer and has an important war chest.  Grimes has yet to hit 47% in any poll and the undecideds would break heavily for McConnell even in a mild Democratic year, which this clearly is not.

FTFY

McConnell only got 47% in a poll once......................... a couple of months ago.

Right, but Kentucky undecideds will break his way and by a solid amount.  Grimes needs to be close enough without undecideds that she only needs to gain a few percentage points from undecideds (at absolute most) to put her over 50%.  McConnell can bank on a number of so-called undecideds coming home in late September/early October while also winning true undecideds by a decent amount.  It'll be close and McConnell will have to spend a s***-load of money, but Grimes will lose.

Not all that sure about the undecideds, but what about the Tea Party Conservatives? They aren't going to vote for McConnell, and be aware that is a fairly large chunk of his base.