Cook Report moves GA Senate race to "Toss Up"

[Adam Griffin]

Thus far, we've seen it shift from Likely Republican to Lean Republican and now Toss Up.

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[windjammer]

Hmmm, too soon.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Runoffs, especially on GOP turfs are iffy. We should be focused on winning our 50th on AK and ARK, aside from CO and NC. Nunn's polls have been on a downward spiral.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The GOP is not going to lose a runoff election in the deep south if control of the Senate is at stake. Nunn needs to get over 50% in November to have any change.

[moderatevoter]

Hmmm, too soon.

I very much agree with this. It's certainly possible, but it depends on who the nominee ends up being.

[Brittain33]

Hmmm, too soon.

I very much agree with this. It's certainly possible, but it depends on who the nominee ends up being.

He also has AR as a tossup, which is too conservative (should be Lean R), and NC as a tossup, which is also too soon. He is defining tossup widely.

[DrScholl]

Based on polling, it's accurate to call it a toss-up. Conditions aren't overly favorable to Democrats, yet Nunn is managing to stay competitive. Strategically, Nunn probably is aiming to close this race out on election day, which is something that can be done.

[Adam Griffin]

Runoffs, especially on GOP turfs are iffy.

Very much so. She needs 50% + 1 on 11/4 to win.

We should be focused on winning our 50th on AK and ARK, aside from CO and NC. Nunn's polls have been on a downward spiral.

Not sure where this is coming from - she's been statistically tied or ahead since August. And Arkansas is gone.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Most pollsters are polling CO, La and NC where the Senate will be decided. I was simply stating the fact, since Sink failed to turn a red seat into a Democratic one, our best hope is holding the seats we have.

Most pollsters have said 4-5 seat net loss which is the median.

[NewYorkExpress]

By this logic Kentucky, should be lean D.

[Flake]

Most pollsters are polling CO, La and NC where the Senate will be decided. I was simply stating the fact, since Sink failed to turn a red seat into a Democratic one, our best hope is holding the seats we have.

Most pollsters have said 4-5 seat net loss which is the median.

She is a terrible campaigner, just a bad candidate, she lead in the polls by 20% and lost by 3%.

By this logic Kentucky, should be lean D.

No, because McConnell has lead in some of the polls and he's not completely crazy, unlike some candidates in Georgia.

[Maxwell]

By this logic Kentucky, should be lean D.

No, because McConnell has lead in some of the polls and he's not completely crazy, unlike some candidates in Georgia.

I actually agree with NYE on this one: McConnell is within the margin of error in nearly all of the polls, and is deeply unpopular. He's never been in this much danger.

[publicunofficial]

He also moved New Hampshire from Likely to Lean D, as if Scott Brown is a threat.

[Nichlemn]

Hmmm, too soon.

I very much agree with this. It's certainly possible, but it depends on who the nominee ends up being.

He also has AR as a tossup, which is too conservative (should be Lean R), and NC as a tossup, which is also too soon. He is defining tossup widely.

Cook had Blanche Lincoln as a tossup into about October 2010 (and then only went so far as "Lean R").

Personally, I don't like the "tossup" label by any prognosticator, it's too wishy-washy. At least Sabato "calls" all races before election day.

[Joshgreen]

Too soon. Though Nunn is overall in a better position than Grimes due to more crossover appeal, state lean, etc. Tilt Republican if we want to split hairs. The primary is where it's at and we won't know much until the first round.

[Indy Texas]

Hmmm, too soon.

I very much agree with this. It's certainly possible, but it depends on who the nominee ends up being.

He also has AR as a tossup, which is too conservative (should be Lean R), and NC as a tossup, which is also too soon. He is defining tossup widely.

Cook had Blanche Lincoln as a tossup into about October 2010 (and then only went so far as "Lean R").

Personally, I don't like the "tossup" label by any prognosticator, it's too wishy-washy. At least Sabato "calls" all races before election day.

Likelihood a given candidate will win and how much they win by aren't the same thing.

There's no contradiction in saying both candidates have a roughly even shot at winning a race and then one of the candidates winning by 14 points.

[JRP1994]

Sabato is probably closer to the truth.

[Joshgreen]

Sabato is probably closer to the truth.

Mississippi is not safe Republican...yet.

[IceSpear]

Lol Sabato thinking that Mark Warner and Jeff Merkley have about the same chance of losing as Mitch McConnell.

[free my dawg]

I can't take a set of predictions seriously that has Scott Brown as a better challenger than ALG.

[7,052,770]

Mississippi is not safe Republican...yet.

It's probably fair to list it as Safe Republican now.  We can change it in the unlikely event that McDaniel is the nominee, but don't count on that.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, what are the odds that Kentucky and/or Georgia prevents Democrats from losing the Senate?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wow, what are the odds that Kentucky and/or Georgia prevents Democrats from losing the Senate?

I think we have seen the low point of the Dems already, Obama's new realignment have put states like Va, in play. KY is part of that trio of states of OH, KY and VA that are similar. Grimes or Nunn may win.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, what are the odds that Kentucky and/or Georgia prevents Democrats from losing the Senate?

I think we have seen the low point of the Dems already, Obama's new realignment have put states like Va, in play. KY is part of that trio of states of OH, KY and VA that are similar. Grimes or Nunn may win.

What Obama realignment is this? I'm not seeing it here.

http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_job1.htm

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dubya's polling was 38 percent when he lost the senate. 2010 saw the GOP net 6 seats due to a tsunami in in House. Hopefully, his polls will come up. I was simply stating unlike in 2006, the Dems have runoffs in La or Ga if we need them should we go under 50 seats.